Athletics 2024 Paris Olympics Preview

Men’s 100m

Since Bolt and Gatlin have departed the scene, no athlete has won two worldwide 100m gold medals. At the 2022 World Championship, it was Fred Kerley (United States) taking gold who was also the fastest man in the world. He has an Olympic silver from 2021. The winner in Tokyo was Marcell Jacobs (Italy) but his best effort in a championship since was when he became European champion in 2022.  The most recent gold medal winner was Noah Lyles (United States). The 200m specialist took the win in the 2023 World Championship. Behind him was

Letsile Tebogo (Botswana), another who is arguably better at 200m. The bronze medal winner was Zharnel Hughes (Great Britain) who shared the fastest time of 2023 with Lyles and Coleman. Ferdinand Omanyala (Kenya) has pretty consistently been one of the fastest in the world; second in 2021 and 2024, third in 2022 and fourth in 2023. However, he hasn’t turned it into consistent championship performances, his only medal coming as he won gold in the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Behind him was Akani Simbine (South Africa), who despite not being as fast as Omanyala has usually outperformed him in majors, including when he finished fourth in Tokyo. Fourth place at the two world championships since has been Oblique Seville (Jamaica). Compatriot Kishane Thompson (Jamaica) enters the Olympics as the fastest man in the world having been fifth fastest in 2023. Kenny Bednarek (United States) is another 200m specialist competing in Paris. Anton De Grasse (Canada) won the 200m gold in Tokyo and won bronze in the 100m, as he did at the 2019 World Championship. Other competitors include Ackeem Blake (Jamaica), Chitiru Ali (Italy), Jeremiah Azu (Great Britain) and Louis Hincliffe (Great Britain).

This feels open much like the last Olympics. Jacobs seems to be returning to something like the form when he won that title. Lyles is a sprinting phenomenon but this is not his strongest event and I think he can be beaten. Kerley has more of a resume than Bednarek but has not been great this year. Simbine has generally been stronger in competition than Omanyala but the Kenyan is always incredibly fast and can potentially put this all together in Tokyo. Hughes has not managed the same level of form as last year due to injuries. Despite a lack of major competition experience, Thompson has looked incredibly impressive this year whilst Seville has also been impressive and I think both can be in the shakeup. I will edge to the impressive performances of Thompson to edge out the proven experience of Lyles but would not be overly surprised if Thompson fails to reach the final.

🥇Kishane Thompson 🇯🇲

🥈Noah Lyles 🇺🇸

🥉Ferdinand Omanyala 🇰🇪

Men’s 200m

Whereas Bolt’s retirement has left a vacuum in the 100m, in the 200m it has been filled pretty ably by Noah Lyles (United States). He has run the fastest time in the world six years in a row and is the reigning triple world champion. At the Tokyo Olympics, he could only finish third though. It was Andre De Grasse (Canada) who took the title that day. He added that to a silver in the 2016 Olympics and 2019 World Championship. Kenneth Bednarek (United States) was the other medalist at the Tokyo Olympics, winning silver. He won World Championship silver in 2022 and has consistently run fast times. Compatriot Erriyon Knighton (United States) was the 2023 silver medalist at the World Championship, having won bronze in 2022. He will only be 20 but has already taken fourth place at the Olympics. Joseph Fahnbulleh (Liberia) is another youngster, being 22. He was fourth at the 2022 World Championship after being fifth at the Tokyo Olympics. Letsile Tebogo (Botswana) is also in the generation, he’ll only be 21 and was the bronze medalist at the 2023 World Championship after being second and second-fastest in the world that year. He was ahead of Zharnel Hughes (Great Britain) who is capable of going sub-20 and was the European Championship gold medalist in 2022. He was beaten at the 2022 Commonwealth Games by Jereem Richards (Trinidad and Tobago) who was the 2017 World Championship bronze medalist. Alonso Edwards (Panama) won silver at the 2009 World Championship but is past his best now. The fastest non-American this year is Tarsis Orogot (Uganda). Other contenders who have gone under 20 seconds this year are Bryan Levell (Jamaica), Cheickna Traore (Ivory Coast), Makanakaishe Charamba (Zimbabwe), Ryan Zeze (France), Tapiwanashe Makarawu (Zimbabwe) and Wanya McCoy (Bahamas). Alexander Ogando (Dominican Republic) also went under 20 when winning the Diamond League event in Paris. Aaron Brown (Canada), Andrew Hutson (Jamaica) and Luxolo Adams (South Africa) have also made championship finals in recent years.

This is an event that has the potential for an American 1-2-3. Lyles is looking in strong form and I think he can get close or potentially set a world record. Knighton has had a difficult season but at his age should still be improving. Bednarek tends to be consistent but had a poorer 2023. The college runners who have gone sub-20 usually struggle to hold form for the Olympics. It feels like the other likeliest contenders are Hughes and Tebogo with Fahnbulleh not running under 20 seconds since 2022. My concern with Hughes is purely the recent injury and I think Tebogo stops the American sweep.

🥇Noah Lyles 🇺🇸

🥈Letsile Tebogo 🇧🇼

🥉Kenneth Bednarek 🇺🇸

Men’s 400m

Steven Gardiner (Bahamas) is the Olympic champion and was the 2019 World Champion. Although he has some of the fastest times over the last few years, his body has not held up to allow him to compete in a World Championship. Michael Norman (United States) was the fastest man in the world in 2018, 2019 and 2022, finally fulfilling his promise when becoming world champion in 2022. The 2012 Olympic champion will also be there. Kirani James (Grenada) has an Olympic medal of every colour and at the 2022 World Championships, completed his set by winning silver. Matthew Hudson Smith (Great Britain) won bronze in 2022 and in 2023 took silver after fading in the home stretch. He was the 2022 European Champion but was beaten in the Commonwealth Games. It was Muzala Samukonga (Zambia) who beat him to the Commonwealth title and was the second-fastest man in 2023. Quincy Hall (United States) led the American charge in the 2023 World Championship, winning bronze and is the second fastest man in the world this year. Christopher Morales-Williams (Canada) was fastest for most of the season until Hall ran in Monaco, after an impressive college season. Bayapo Ndori (Botswana) is the fourth fastest man in the world this year and leads a three-strong Botswanan team. Harvard Bentdal Ingvaldsen (Norway) and Sean Bailey (Jamaica) were in the 2023 World Championship final. Alexander Doom (Belgium) won the Diamond League event in Rabat earlier in the season and the European Championship. Behind him were Charlie Dobson (Great Britain) and Liemarvin Bonevacia (Netherlands).

This feels like a weaker edition of the 400m and I think it comes down to if Gardiner is healthy enough to get anywhere near his best. He has not raced often this season, which hopefully means he is saving himself to be at his best here. Behind him, Norman is another looking to get back to his best. James is probably past his best but his know-how can allow him to make the final. Hall has slowly improved throughout the season and looks very much like a challenger. Elsewhere, I think Doom, Hudson-Smith, Ndori and Samukonga are the main contenders. Expect Hudson-Smith to go off fast and the others will be hoping to catch him in the final 100m.

🥇Steven Gardiner 🇧🇸

🥈Matthew Hudson-Smith 🇬🇧

🥉Quincy Hall 🇺🇸

Men’s 800m

The 800m is perhaps past its peak from a few years ago but it remains extremely competitive. Emmanuel Wanyonyi (Kenya) entered the 2023 World Championships as a favourite but could only win silver after finishing fourth in 2022. He will only turn 20 during the Olympics. In 2023, he was beaten by Marco Arop (Canada). The powerful Canadian won bronze in 2022. In between Arop and Korir in 2022 was Djamel Sedjati (Algeria). He has run the fastest time this year and was very impressive when winning Diamond League events in Paris and Monaco. Fast-finishing teammate Slimane Moula (Algeria) has finished fifth at the last two World Championships. The bronze medalist in 2023 was Ben Pattison (Great Britain). Compatriot Jake Wightman (Great Britain) is better known for his 1500m exploits where he is a world champion. Teammate Max Burgin (Great Britain) is a dedicated front-runner who ran the third fastest time in 2022. Wyclife Kinyamal (Kenya) ran the fourth-best time the past two years. His best finish in a worldwide tournament was eighth in the 2022 World Championship. Compatriot Koitatoi Kidali (Kenya) made it through the Kenyan trials which is a signifier of quality. Bryce Hoppel (United States) was a bronze medalist at the 2019 World Championship. He will be competing with compatriots Brandon Miller (United States) and Hobbs Kessler (United States). Peter Bol (Australia) was a fourth-place finisher at the Tokyo Olympics but missed most of last year after being banned which was then overturned. Adrian Ben (Spain) finished fifth in Tokyo and was fourth at the 2023 World Championship. Gabriel Tual (France) was also in the Tokyo Olympic final and won the 2024 European Championship. Compatriot Benjamin Robert (France) has been in the top eight fastest men in the world for the last two seasons.

The 800m is always a tough event to call, with semi-finals must-watch. As always a lot will depend on how these races are run. Wanyonyi will likely want this run fast but Sedjati has shown he might be the best in the field off a fast pace currently. Moula and Pattinson will be looking to finish fast, whilst Arop will be looking for something in between. With no pacemakers, Wanyonyi might take it on but given his recent loss to Sedjati, will he think that makes sense? Perhaps someone like Burgin making the final will help as the Brit tends to go off fast. If no one takes this on, the podium will probably look completely different. Based on a fast-run race, I will make Sedjati the favourite. Wanyonyi will likely hang on to be on the podium whilst Tual has shown an ability to follow the fast pace lately and I think he can win a bronze.

🥇Djamel Sedjati 🇩🇿

🥈Emmanuel Wanyonyi 🇰🇪

🥉Gabriel Tual 🇫🇷

Men’s 1500m

This event has been dominated by Jakob Ingebritsen (Norway). He is the reigning Olympic champion and has dominated the Diamond League events. However, he still doesn’t have a world title, having finished fourth in 2019 and won silver in the two renewals since despite being the fastest man in the world both years. Josh Kerr (Great Britain) beat him in 2023 to become the world champion, adding to his Olympic bronze. Second in Tokyo, was Timothy Cheruiyot (Kenya). He was world champion in 2019 and was the world leader four times. Perhaps compatriot Abel Kipsang (Kenya) is more likely to challenge. He was fourth in the Olympics, ran the fourth fastest time in 2022 and was fourth in the 2023 World Championship. Ahead of him in third was Narve Gilje Nordas (Norway). Yared Nuguse (United States) was the third fastest man in 2023 but could only finish fifth in the World Championship. Cole Hocker (United States) is the fifth fastest man in the world this year, having finished seventh at the 2023 World Championship. Mario Garcia (Spain) has consistently made finals, finishing fourth in 2022 and sixth in 2023. Azeddine Habz (France) won the Diamond League event in Rabat this year whilst Brian Komen(Kenya) took the win in Doha. Other fast times, when chasing home a strong pace this season, have come from Elliot Giles (Great Britain), Isaac Nader (Portugal) and Oliver Hoare (Australia). Compatriot Stewart McSweyn (Australia) was a Tokyo Olympic finalist and some of the fastest times in recent years.

This should be a titanic battle. The Brits have shown the rest of the field that if you can be positioned for a last-lap race with Ingebritsen, you should have a chance of going past the Norwegian. I expect to see Ingebritsen make this fast, perhaps stringing the field out from around halfway. If he does I think he can get the win, with the sting taken out of his rivals legs. Cheruiyot is past his best but has shown in the Diamond League season he can be dangerous. I think instead Nuguse and Kerr can be the men who chases Ingebritsen home, trialling by a second or two.

🥇Jakob Ingebritsen 🇳🇴

🥈Yared Nuguse 🇺🇸

🥉Josh Kerr 🇬🇧

Men’s 5000m

Jakob Ingebritsen (Norway) is the double reigning world champion. Although primarily a 1500m runner, his superior speed has told. Teammate Narve Gilje Nordas (Norway) would also prefer the 1500m but a slow run race should also suit him. Joshua Cheptegei (Uganda) is the reigning Olympic champion. He ran the second fastest 5,000m last year but probably prefers the longer distances. Grant Fisher (United States) was the third fastest in 2023 but also prefers the longer distances. The bronze medalist at the 2023 World Championship was Jacob Krop (Kenya). He was the world leader in 2022 and also has a World Championship silver from the 2022 event. He could only win bronze at the 2022 Commonwealth Games though. Jacob Kiplimo (Uganda) was the man who won the Commonwealth Games and will be hoping to improve on his fifth from the Tokyo Olympics. Oscar Chelimo (Uganda) won bronze at the 2022 World Championship. Mohammed Ahmed (Canada) was the silver medalist in Tokyo, after winning bronze at the 2019 World Championship. The fastest man this year is Hagos Gebrhiwet (Ethiopia) who won the Oslo Diamond League event earlier in the year setting a national record. Compatriot Yomif Kejelcha (Ethiopia) is a familiar face but is probably a stronger 10,000m runner, his best performance being a World Championship fourth in 2017. Finishing fourth at the last two World Championships was Luis Grijalva (Guatemala). George Mills (Great Britain) was runner-up at the 2024 European Championship behind Ingebritsen. Birhanu Balew (Bahrain) took gold at the 2023 Asian Games. Theirry Ndikuwmenayo (Spain) is the fourth fastest man in the world this year, but that came in the Oslo race and he was unable to keep pace with the front three.

This actually feels like an easier race for Ingebritsen to win based on his World Championship efforts in recent years. I think to beat him, the others need to make this fast but will anyone take on the challenge? A fast pace would probably suit the Ethiopians and the Ugandans, although Cheptegei struggled in Oslo behind a fast pace. Behind the pace I expect, I think Krop can win a medal and Gebrhiwet can win the other medal even in a slower event but if it is run that way expect a shock.

🥇Jakob Ingebritsen 🇳🇴

🥈Jacob Krop 🇰🇪

🥉Hagos Gebrhiwet 🇪🇹

Men’s 10000m

The East Africans have long dominated this event. Selemon Barega (Ethiopia) is the reigning Olympic champion and he was the second fastest that season. At the most recent World Championship, he won bronze. Joshua Cheptegei (Uganda) was the winner, making him a triple world champion. He is also the world record holder and will be expecting to improve on his silver from Tokyo. Behind them at the Olympics, taking bronze, was Jacob Kiplimo(Uganda). He was the fastest man in the world in 2021 and won bronze in the 2022 World Championship. He did take the Commonwealth Games title in 2022. Yomif Kejelcha (Ethiopia) won a world championship silver in 2019. He has also been third fastest in the world twice. Berihu Aregawi (Ethiopia) is the reigning fourth-place finisher in the Olympics and World Championships. Kenya is represented by a team that shares no track medals. Benard Kibet (Kenya) came fifth at the 2023 World Championship. Nicholas Kipkorir Kimeli (Kenya) was eighth but was the second fastest man in the world in 2020. Daniel Mateiko (Kenya) won the Kenyan trial this year in a personal best but three were separated by 0.28 seconds. If the title is to go to someone from outside of Africa, Mohammed Ahmed (Canada) is likely the place to start. He has finished sixth at the last three World Championships as well as the Olympics, but he did run the second-fastest time in 2022. Grant Fisher (United States) would be the other option, having been the fastest man in 2022 and finishing fourth in the 2022 World Championships after his fifth at the Olympics. His teammate William Kincaid (United States) was the fourth fastest man in 2023. Brihanu Balew (Bahrain) won the 2023 Asian Games.

It feels like this is a battle between the Ethiopians and Ugandans. Ahmed, Fisher and the Kenyans will hope to compete but recent results frankly suggest they will struggle. Fisher would probably prefer to be in a fast-run race whilst Ahmed will hope it comes down a sprint where it can be dangerous. I think this probably goes to Cheptegei. He has proven so tough to beat although the time he did lose was at the Tokyo Olympics.

🥇Joshua Cheptegei 🇺🇬

🥈Berahu Aregawi 🇪🇹

🥉Jacob Kiplimo 🇺🇬

Marathon

This event has been overshadowed by the tragic passing earlier this year of Kelvin Kiptum. He set an incredible world record in 2023 and would have been the favourite to take gold. The usual place to start any discussion on the marathon would be Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya). He is probably the greatest marathon runner of all time, looking for his third Olympic title. He is the only man to have run under two hours and has won the majority of the marathons he has entered. Both his compatriots in this event have won marathon majors this year. Benson Kipruto (Kenya) won in Tokyo to take his tally to three whilst Alexander Mutiso (Kenya) took the victory in London. The other massive name in the athletics world is Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia). He is a three-time Olympic champion and five-time World Champion, as well as a former marathon world record holder. The current world champion is Victor Kiplangat (Uganda) who also won the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Compatriot Stephen Kissa (Uganda) is another contender, having finished fifth in 2023. Richard Ringer (Germany) was the 2022 European champion after beating Maru Teferi (Israel) who was also the 2023 World Championship silver medalist. Bashir Abdi (Belgium) has major competition credentials, having won bronze at the Tokyo Olympics and the 2022 World Championships. Ahead of him winning silver in Tokyo was Abdi Nageeye (Netherlands) and he is the second-fastest European this year. The fastest is Morhad Amdouni (France). He run that in Seville, which has become a bit of hot hotbed for fast marathon running. Beating him was Deresa Geleta (Ethiopia). Compatriot Sisay Lemma (Ethiopia) was the second fastest man in 2023 and has won marathon majors, London in 2021 and Boston in 2024. Tebello Ramakongoana (Lesotho) was fourth in the 2023 World Championship whilst Hassan Chahdi (France) will receive the support of the home crowd and did finish seventh in the 2023 World Championship. Alphonce Simbu (Tanzania) is a former world championship medalist, winning bronze in 2017. Compatriot Gabriel Geay (Tanzania) came seventh in 2022 and was a runner-up in the 2023 Berlin Marathon. Emile Cairess (Great Britain) came third in 2024 in London. Gashau Ayale (Israel) won bronze at the 2022 European Championship.

People will be hoping for a battle between Bekele and Kipchoge. However, both men seem to be on the decline. Kipruto beat Kipchoge earlier this year whilst Mutiso beat Bekele. Lemmy and Geleta have both run fast times in the last year but do not have the major experience of the others. Abdi and the Ugandans tend to turn up when it comes to recent major championships and cannot be discounted. The marathon feels one of the harder ones to predict and I will go with a bit of a surprise in Kipchoge only managing bronze.

🥇Benson Kipruto 🇰🇪

🥈Victor Kiplangat 🇺🇬

🥉Eliud Kipchoge 🇰🇪

Men’s 110m Hurdles

Grant Holloway (United States) has won the last three world titles. He is the second fastest of all time but could only finish second in Tokyo. It was Hansle Parchment (Jamaica) on that occasion, adding to his 2012 bronze. He also won silver in the 2015 and 2023 World Championships. He was the fastest man in 2023, ahead of teammate Rasheed Broadbell (Jamaica) who won at the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Daniel Roberts (United States) was a bronze medalist in the 2023 World Championship after being the second-fastest man in 2019. Freddie Crittenden (United States) has been the second fastest man this year and will be looking to be on the podium after finishing fourth in the 2023 World Championship. Asier Martinez (Spain) won a bronze medal at the 2022 World Champion and was the 2022 European Champion. The 2024 European champion was Lorenzo Simonelli (Italy) and he is the fastest non-American this year. The 2023 Asian Games was a tie between Yaqoub Al-Youha (Kuwait) and Shunya Takayama (Japan). Compatriot Shunsuke Izuyima (Japan) came fifth in the 2023 World Championship and quite often has been one of the fastest non-Americans. Sasha Zhoya (France), Jason Joseph (Switzerland) and Wilhem Belocian (France) made the 2023 World Championship final, finishing in that order. Damian Czykier (Poland) has a fourth-place finish in the 2022 World Championship. Both Enrique Llopis (Spain) and Rachid Muratake (Japan) have run sub 13.10 this year.

This feels like an event that has been on a bit of a downswing. That is despite Holloway becoming an all-time great. The only things he needs to tick are Olympic gold and world record. He could do both here. Behind him, Crittenden looks like the number two. It could be an American sweep as Roberts has gone faster than anyone else in the field this year. Parchment is an obvious danger but has not looked anywhere near like the form needed. Simonelli has run some good times this season and I think that is enough for him to be the best non-American and I will predict him to edge Roberts for bronze. The other possible competitor for the podium is Muratake.

🥇Grant Holloway 🇺🇸

🥈Freddie Crittenden 🇺🇸

🥉Lorenzo Simonelli 🇮🇹

Men’s 400m Hurdles

Karsten Warholm (Norway) has dominated this event since bursting onto the scene. He is a three-time world champion, Olympic champion and world record holder. The one year he didn’t win the World Championship was 2022 as he was injured. Alison dos Santos (Brazil) was the benefactor that year and he was the fastest man in the world. He also has an Olympic bronze from Tokyo. The unluckiest man in this era has been Rai Benjamin (United States). Four times the second fastest man in the world before becoming the fastest man in 2023, he has an Olympic silver, two world championship silvers and a bronze. 63 has a big win over his two main rivals in the Monaco Diamond League. Compatriot Trevor Bassitt (United States) has made two straight World Championship finals, winning bronze in 2022. Behind him in fourth was Wilfried Happio (France). He had the sixth fastest time in 2022 and won silver in the 2022 European Championships. The silver medalist at the 2024 European Championship was Alessandro Sibilio (Italy). Rasmus Magi (Estonia) is another European contender. He had the third fastest time in the world in 2020 and has since been a fixture in championship finals despite not yet challenging. Kyron McMaster (British Virgin Islands) has often been on the outside of the podium looking in, including when fourth at the Tokyo Olympics. After winning the Commonwealth Games, he improved to finish second in the 2023 World Championship. Yasmani Copello (Turkey) is another former medalist winning silver in 2017 and an Olympic bronze in 2016 but has not been at the same level of form since. Abderrahman Samba (Qatar) won bronze in 2019, having been the second man to go under 47. Roshawn Clarke (Jamaica) is potentially the future of the event, having only turned 20. He came fourth in the 2023 World Championship and has gone fourth fastest this year. Teammate Jaheel Hyde (Jamaica) was sixth in the 2022 World Championship and runner-up at the Commonwealth Games ahead of Alistair Chalmers (Great Britain). Gerald Drummond (Costa Rica) won a Diamond League event earlier in the year in Eugene. CJ Allen (United States), Joshua Abuaku (Germany) and Ludvy Vaillant (France) are other contenders.

What a race this should be. The big three have had some real battles over recent years. You can add in Bassitt, Clarke and McMaster as potential disrupters whilst Happio can lead a French challenge. Benjamin has been the fastest man this year and beat his rivals in a rare foray over to Europe. I think Benjamin can do this again, going close to the world record. Expect Warholm to go out hard and Benjamin to catch him after the final hurdle. Dos Santos can beat out the other contenders for bronze.

🥇Rai Benjamin 🇺🇸

🥈Karsten Warholm 🇳🇴

🥉Alison dos Santos 🇧🇷

Men’s 3000m Steeplechase

This event should come down to a battle between perennial runner-up Lamecha Girma (Ethiopia) and Soufiane El Bakkali (Morocco). Girma has won three straight World Championship silvers and an Olympic silver. He was the second fastest in the world three times before in 2023 setting the world record. El Bakkali is the Olympic champion and reigning double world champion who keeps out-duelling Girma. He also has a World Championship silver and bronze, as well as numerous world-leading times. Behind them both at the 2023 World Championship was Abraham Kibiwott (Kenya). He was the Commonwealth Games winner in 2022 and has consistently run fast times, being third fastest in 2021 and fourth in 2022. The third fastest man in 2023 was Simon Kiprop Koech (Kenya) who only turned 21 in June. Getnet Wale (Ethiopia) has finished fourth at two of the last three World Championships and the Tokyo Olympics. George Beamish (New Zealand) was the other, he finished fourth at the 2023 World Championship. Ryuji Miura (Japan) has been in the top eight of two major Championship finals and is the fastest non-African this year. Alexis Miellet (France) is the reigning European champion whilst Topi Raitanen (Finland) took the crown in 2022. Osama Zoghlami (Italy) won bronze in 2022. Avinash Sable (India) won at the 2023 Asian Games and was runner-up at the 2022 Commonwealth Games. He set a national record this year in Paris, a race in which Amos Serem (Kenya) finished second. Serem was also the bronze medalist at the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Samuel Firewu (Ethiopia) won a Diamond League event in Doha.

El Bakkali has barely been seen on the circuit this year and after dealing with an injury, has not looked impressive. Girma has the fastest time in the world this year and knows he can go faster than El-Bakkali, but cannot let this go to a sprint. I think this is the year he makes it to the top of the podium. Behind him should come down to Firewu, Kibiwott, Koech or Wale and I will go with Firewu to beat his compatriot Wale into fourth again.

🥇Lamecha Girma 🇪🇹

🥈Sofiane El Bakkali 🇲🇦

🥉Samuel Firewu 🇪🇹

Men’s 20km Walk

Massimo Stano (Italy) is the reigning Olympic champion and took bronze in the 2023 European Championships where the gold was won by teammate Francesco Fortunato (Italy). In between them was Perseus Karlstrom (Sweden). He is a twice World Championship bronze medal and won silver in 2023. He was beaten by Alvaro Martin (Spain), who also beat him into second at the 2022 European Championship. He finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics. The other medalist at the 2023 World Championship was Caio Bonfim (Brazil), adding to his 2017 bronze. He is a consistent performer on the Walking Tour, winning in Podebrady in 2022 and Warszawa in 2023. Jose Barrondo (Guatemala) won in Dudince in 2022 whilst Cesar Rodriguez (Peru) won in 2024. Koki Ikeda (Japan) won silver in Tokyo as he did at the 2022 World Championships. Brian Pintado (Ecuador) finished fifth that year but has won at Rio Maior in 2022 and 2023. Evan Dunfee (Canada) was always better over the longer distance but did finish fourth in the 2023 World Championship. Christopher Linke (Germany) was behind him in fifth, the same result he achieved in 2017 and at the Olympics. Samuel Gathimba (Kenya) was the fourth-placed finisher in the 2022 World Championships. Jun Zhang (China) is the reigning Asian Games champion. He was the second fastest man in the world both this year and last year. Compatriots Li Yandong (China) and Wang Zhaozhao (China) are both in the top ten fastest times this year. Declan Tingay (Australia), Salih Korkmaz (Turkey) and Veli-Matti Partanen (Finland) have all been top eight in recent major championships. Diego Garcia (Spain) and Noel Chama (Mexico) have both been on the podium in the big tour events over the last few years.

As with the marathon, these are always tough to predict based on who handles the course best on the day. Karlstrom has been one of the strongest players consistently over recent years and I think this can be his gold medal. Fortunato looks like the leading Italian contender whilst Jun is the best of the Chinese team. In recent years the Chinese team has quite often failed to translate fast times into medals though. Instead, I think this comes down to a battle between Bonfim and Ikeda with Martin winning silver.

🥇Perseus Karlstrom 🇸🇪

🥈Alvaro Martin 🇪🇸

🥉Koki Ikeda 🇯🇵

Men’s 4x100m Relay

United States will enter the relay as favourites. They are the 2023 and 2019 world champions, finishing second in 2017 and 2022. Usually, the one concern is getting the baton round. They failed to do that in Tokyo. Instead, the shock winners were Italy. Marcell Jacobs was in the form of his life that week but they did win silver in the 2023 World Championship. In third were Jamaica, making a return to the sprint relays after their success during the Bolt era. They’d finished fourth at the 2022 World Championship and fifth at the Tokyo Olympics. Fourth in 2023 was Great Britain. They’d previously won gold in 2017, silver in 2019 and bronze in 2023. The Olympics saw them disqualified after winning silver. Canada was promoted to silver and then went one better when winning gold at the 2022 World Championships. Japan are a consistent threat. They were third in the 2017 and 2019 World Championships but only finished fifth in 2023. China is not consistently as strong but did win bronze in Tokyo. South Africa is the fourth fastest nation this year and was the fifth fastest in 2023 whilst France won bronze at the World Relays. Brazil have been to the last three World Championship finals but their best finish was a fourth in 2019. Germany and Ghana made the last Olympic final but neither feels like a serious threat. Nigeria was the bronze medalist at the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Australia, Liberia and the Netherlands are the other competitors.

The relay can be a bit of a lottery depending on if all teams can haul the baton round. Jamaica have a young team and although I think they are dangerous in the individual event, I can see them not winning a medal here. United States have the strength in depth as well as the resume over recent years to suggest they can win this. The Canadian team is arguably a group of sprinters past their best. Great Britain has arguably one of their strongest squads since being world champions. Italy will be intriguing if Jacobs is back to his best. China and Japan are maybe the best at getting the most out of their talent in a relay setting.

🥇United States 🇺🇸

🥈Great Britain 🇬🇧

🥉Japan 🇯🇵

Men’s 4x400m Relay

United States are the defending Olympic champions and reigning triple world champions. The 400m cupboard is not as strong as it once was but the depth still gives them a major edge. Trinidad and Tobago were the last team to beat them at a major championship when becoming world champions in 2017. The majority of that team is now on the wrong side of 30 though and they have not managed to perform anywhere near as well since. The Botswanateam won bronze in Tokyo and they may have the most natural talent in the field. Winning bronze at the 2023 World Championship with a young team was Great Britain. More impressive was that the team didn’t include Matthew Hudson Smith. This added to bronze in 2017 and the European Championship. Behind them at that Championship were Belgium. The era where the majority of the team came from the Borlee family is over and despite winning bronze at the 2019 and 2022 World Championships, perhaps their best is in the past. France finished third behind Belgium at the 2022 European Championships but improved to second at the 2023 World Championships. Japanhave a fourth-place finish at the 2023 World Championship. Behind them were India, and they had the fourth fastest time in 2023 as well as winning the Asian Games. South Africa were runners up at the 2024 World Relays. Italy and Poland made the Olympic final in Tokyo. Brazil, Germany, Nigeria, Spain and Zambia will also be competing.

After a few barren years, it feels like the United States has rebounded and should win gold here, probably with a bit of a gap. Behind them, it feels like Trinidad and Tobago are nowhere near as strong as they once were. It should come down to Belgium, Botswana, France and Great Britain. Botswana are consistently strong whilst France has a team running in front of a raucous home crow. Belgium have been incredibly consistent over a long period whilst Britain has space to improve with the addition of Hudson-Smith.

🥇United States 🇺🇸

🥈Great Britain 🇬🇧

🥉Belgium 🇧🇪

Men’s High Jump

Mutaz Essa Barshim (Qatar) has long dominated this event and created one of the memories of Tokyo when agreeing to share gold. He could only finish third in the 2023 World Championship though. It was Gianmarco Tamberi (Italy) who he shared the Olympic gold with and he beat Barshim to the 2023 World Championship. JuVaughn Harrison (United States) finished in between the pair and the exciting American has a real chance. Teammate Shelby McEwan (United States) has been in the top eight at the last two World Championships but will need to improve to challenge. Sang-hyeok Woo (South Korea) was second in the 2022 World Championship, also with the second-best jump that year. He will be looking to improve on Tokyo, where he finished fourth. Edgar Rivera(Mexico) came fourth at the 2017 World Championships. Fourth at the most recent World Championship was Luis Enrique Zayas (Cuba) improving from fifth in 2019. Tobias Poyte (Germany) came fifth in 2023 after being the 2022 European bronze medalist. Hamish Kerr (New Zealand) is the second-highest jumper this year after winning the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Brandon Starc (Australia) came second. He has impressed, especially in older Diamond League events and he was the third-highest jumper in 2018. Andriy Protsenko (Ukraine) was also impressive in the diamond league events at a similar time. He was the 2022 European Champion and won bronze at the 2022 World Championship. Jan Stefala (Czech Republic), Oleh Doroshchuk (Ukraine), Stefano Sottile (Italy) and Yual Reath (Australia) have all jumped over 2.30 this season.

This has not been a strong event this season. Barshim has dominated this event for a while but he does not seem to be in gold-winning form. Tamberi has gone highest this year and over recent years has shown up in major competitions. However, a recent injury has hampered his build-up and I think that could cost him gold. Harrison has been on the circuit less and does not look as good as he was last year. He is incredibly springy and if he gets towards his best he should be competitive. Woo is consistently in the frame whereas Kerr has great heights without performing well in outdoor major tournaments.

🥇Hamish Kerr 🇳🇿

🥈San-hyeok Woo 🇰🇷

🥉Gianmarco Tamberi 🇮🇹

Men’s Pole Vault

This competition is all about Armand Duplantis (Sweden). The reigning Olympic and double world champion is also the world record holder and no one in this field has gone anywhere near the heights Duplantis has scaled. The Americans are always strong in this and the National trials are always close. Christopher Nilsen (United States) is probably the bigger danger. He was second in Tokyo and the 2022 World Championships but could only take bronze in 2023. He was the last man to beat Duplantis outdoors when taking the Monaco Diamond League event in 2023. He shared bronze at the 2023 World Championship with Kurtis Marschall (Australia) who was the 2022 Commonwealth Games winner. Ahead of Marschall and Nilsen at the 2023 World Championships was Ernest John Obiena (Philippines). He was the bronze medal winner in 2022 and twice has been the third-highest jumper in the season. Sam Kendricks (United States) is a former double World Champion but injuries have hampered him past 2020. Piotr Lisek (Poland) won silver in 2017 and bronze in 2019 but has similarly struggled since then. Bo Kanda Lita Baehre (Germany) has not yet managed a global championship medal but he is consistently in the big finals. Enmanouli Karalis (Greece) came fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and was runner-up at the 2024 European Championship. Over the last few years Ersu Samsa (Turkey), Pal Haugen Lillefosse (Norway) and Oleg Zernikel (Germany) have all won European Championship bronze. Sondre Guttormsen (Norway) was the third-highest vaulter in 2023 after clearing 6m to win the NCAA Championship. Ben Broeders (Belgium), Huang Bokai (China) and Thibaut Collet (France) also were in the top eight of the 2023 World Championships.

It is a sign of the dominance of Duplantis that it is taken as a given that he takes gold. The question is whether he can set another world record. Duplantis is a showman and you would expect he will set another world record on the biggest stage. The battle should be about who else can finish on the podium. Nilsen and Obiena have been the strongest in recent years with Marschall being poor, by his standards, this season. Kendricks has bounced back this season and will be competitive.  The European challenge will likely come from Collet and Karalis.

🥇Armand Duplantis 🇸🇪

🥈Christopher Nilsen 🇺🇸

🥉Ernest John Obiena 🇵🇭

Men’s Long Jump

Miltiadis Tentoglou (Greece) is a competitor. The current Olympic and world champion won both of those titles on his final jump of the competition. He was pushed to that in 2023 by Wayne Pinnock (Jamaica) who won silver and went furthest in 2023. It’s a strong Jamaican team, which will also have Tajay Gayle (Jamaica). He was the 2019 world champion and won bronze in 2023. Behind him in fourth was Carey McLeod (Jamaica). Wang Jianan (China) was the 2022 world champion and was the world leader in 2020. The bronze medalist in 2022 was Simon Ehammer (Switzerland), a former decathlete. Jarrion Lawson (United States) is a former World Championship medalist, but that was back in 2017. Yuki Hashioka (Japan) went third furthest in 2020 and was sixth at the Tokyo Olympics. Jeswin Aldrin (India) went third furthest in 2023 with Mattia Furlani (Italy) going fourth furthest in 2024 when winning silver in the 2024 European Championship. Thomas Montler (Sweden) won silver in 2022 and was sixth at the 2023 World Championship. Radek Juska (Czech Republic) was behind him in seventh. Yu-Tang Lin (Taiwan) was the fifth furthest jumper last year. Filip Pravdica (Croatia) jumped 8.35m in Kranj to go sixth in the top list this season.

How can you pick against Tentoglou? He just performs on the biggest stage. At some point, you feel that luck could run out but he also has the furthest jump of the season again. Neither Gayle nor Jianan has been anywhere near their best this season. Pinnock and McLeod have looked good whilst Ehammer and young Furlani are real challengers.

🥇Miltiadis Tentoglou 🇬🇷

🥈Simon Ehammer 🇨🇭

🥉Carey McLeod 🇯🇲

Men’s Triple Jump

This has been a rather open competition since the absence of Christian Taylor. Pedro Pablo Pichardo (Portugal) took the Olympic title and 2022 World Championships. He has had the world-leading jump three times and can go very far. So does Jaydon Hibbert (Jamaica). He was the favourite entering the 2023 World Championship final after jumping furthest in 2023 only to pull up on his first attempt in the final. Only 19, he is a massive talent. Instead, the winner was Hugues Fabrice Zango (Burkina Faso). Previously he had won bronze in 2019 and silver in 2022 whilst his best effort in the world lead charts was second in 2020. Cuba probably has the most strength in depth in the competition with some of their best jumpers not even representing them any more. Lazaro Martinez (Cuba) was a surprise second in the 2023 World Championship ahead of Cristian Napoles (Cuba). Jordan Diaz (Spain) now represents Spain and is often on the world lead lists, going second furthest in 2022. Cuban-born Andy Diaz (Italy) won the Diamond League finale in 2022 and has been the third furthest jumper for the last three years. Behind the pair of Cubans at the 2023 World Championship was Zhu Yaming (China). He had been second in Tokyo and third at the 2022 World Championships. Yasser Triki (Algeria) has been competitive in the major finals but has not finished better than fifth yet. Andrea Dallavalle (France) was fourth at the 2022 World Championship and won silver at the European Championship. Jean-Marc Pontvianne (France) took bronze in 2022, whilst this year it was Thomas Gigios (France) winning bronze. Abdulla Aboobacker (India) won silver at the 2022 Commonwealth Games with Jah-Nhai Perinchief (Bermuda) in third. Donald Scott (United States), Fang Yaoqing (China) and Necati Er (Turkey) all return after making the top eight in Tokyo.

The European Championship this year has shown a high level of jumping with two men going over 18m. The five Cuban-born jumpers in the field are all going to be competitive along with Hibbert and Zango. I could really see this going anyway. Jordan Diaz has been strongest this year whilst Hibbert looked precocious, especially last year. Zango and Pichardo have been consistently strong in big events over recent years.

🥇Jordan Diaz 🇪🇸

🥈Pedro Pablo Pichardo 🇵🇹

🥉Jaydon Hibbert 🇯🇲

Men’s Shot Put

Ryan Crouser (United States) is looking to continue to cement a legacy. He is the double reigning Olympic and World champion as well as the world record holder. Many of his battles have come against Joe Kovacs (United States), a double world champion who has also won silver twice at the World Championships and the Olympics. His other rival has been Tomas Walsh (New Zealand). The 2017 world champion has two Olympic bronze medals. The other American is Payton Otterdahl (United States) who came fifth at the 2023 World Championship and has thrown the fourth furthest this year. Leonardo Fabbri (Italy) finished second in the 2023 World Championships and has thrown second furthest this year. Filip Mihaljevic (Croatia) was the European Champion in 2022. Darlan Romani (Brazil) has finished fourth on numerous occasions including the 2019 World Championship and Tokyo Olympics. Tomas Stanek (Czech Republic) was fourth at the 2017 World Championship and won bronze at the 2022 European Championship. Ahead of him was Armin Sinancevic (Serbia) in silver. This year, Michal Haratyk (Poland) took the European bronze. Tajinderpal Singh Toor (India) was the 2023 Asian Games winner. Jacko Gill (New Zealand) is a consistent major championship finalist but his only medal was silver in the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Zane Weir (Italy) is someone who has put together big throws in recent years, going fifth furthest in 2022, fourth furthest in 2023 and eighth furthest this year. He was part of the top eight in the Tokyo Olympic final along with Kyle Blignaut (South Africa) and Mostafa Amr Hassan (Egypt).

This should be another battle between Crouser and Kovacs. Crouser tends to win those battles but Kovacs has gone further this year. I think we could see Kovacs get another victory over his big rival. Walsh has tended to be the opponent who is closest to the big two, but his results over recent years suggest that the gap is bigger than ever. It should be down to Fabbri, Otterdahl and Walsh. I will stick with Fabbri who has performed in big events and consistently thrown far this year.

🥇Joe Kovacs 🇺🇸

🥈Ryan Crouser 🇺🇸

🥉Leonardo Fabbri 🇮🇹

Men’s Discus

The current Olympic champion is Daniel Stahl (Sweden). He’s also the current World Champion adding to his 2019 crown and has thrown the furthest for most of the last few years. Kristjan Ceh (Slovenia) has been his biggest competitor, beating him in the 2022 World Championship before winning silver in 2023, in a year in which he was the furthest thrower. Mykolas Alenka (Lithuania) is only going to be 21 for the Olympics but discus is in his blood, his dad was double Olympic champion Virgilijus Alenka. He was second in the 2022 World Championship and European Champion before winning bronze in 2023. He set a new world record earlier in the year. Compatriot Andrius Gudzius (Lithuania) was the 2017 world champion when beating Stahl. Since then though his best result was bronze in 2022. Lukas Weishaidinger (Austria) was the Tokyo Olympic bronze medalist as well as winning the same medal at the 2019 World Championship. Matthew Denny (Australia) has finished fourth at the last Olympics and World Championships as well as being the Commonwealth champion. Alin Alexandru Firfirica (Romania) has a fourth-place finish from back in 2019. Alex Rose (Samoa) has the second furthest throw this year but does not have an impressive major championship record. Clemens Prufer (Germany), Ralford Mullings (Jamaica), Reggie Jägers (United States) and Roje Stona (Jamaica) are all top ten throwers in the world this year, going over 69m. Trevor Smikle (Jamaica) has been a medalist at the last two Commonwealth Games.

Ceh and Stahl have dominated this event in recent years. The question is whether Alenka can translate his big throws into a competition-winning performance. He hasn’t managed it yet, even at the European Championships after his dominant start to the year. Denny and Weishaidinger are the more experienced names who tend to show up in major finals. Rose and Mullings are probably the two who could break into that top tier and get onto the podium.

🥇Kristjan Ceh 🇸🇮

🥈Mykolas Alenka 🇱🇹

🥉Matthew Denny 🇦🇺

Men’s Javelin

As the reigning Olympic and World champion, Neeraj Chopra (India) will have to face more pressure than most. He has a humongous following in his home country. In 2022 he was beaten by Anderson Peters (Grenada) at the World Championships, who became a double champion after his 2019 victory. Jakub Vadlejch (Czech Republic) was third in 2022 and 2023 and also has an Olympic silver from Tokyo. Julian Weber (Germany) has turned into a fourth-place machine, finishing fourth at the last two World Championships and the Tokyo Olympics. He did win the 2022 European Championships ahead of Vadlejch. Compatriot Max Dehning (Germany) is only 19 but is the only man to throw over 90m this year. Arshad Nadeem (Pakistan) was the 2022 Commonwealth Games champion and finished second behind Chopra in the 2023 World Championship despite having not competed prior to that championship because of injuries. Julius Yego (Kenya) is a former world champion whilst Keshorn Walcott (Trinidad and Tobago) won at the 2012 Olympics but neither man has the form to suggest they can be competitive. Andrian Mardare (Moldova) and Lassi Etelatalo (Finland) were both top eight at the Tokyo Olympics. Etelatalo was fourth at the 2019 World Championship and won bronze at the 2022 and 2024 European Championships. Kishore Jena (India) won silver at the Asian Games and was fifth at the 2023 World Championship. Finishing top 8 at the last World Championships, Edis Matusevicius (Lithuania) and Oliver Helander (Finland) have both been rated in the top five for the furthest throw in a year. Marcin Krukowski (Poland) threw second furthest in 2021 and third furthest in 2020. Teura’itera’I Tupaia (France) has the sixth furthest throw this season.

Chopra has incredible success for someone who does not have a resume of massive throws. He simply knows how to win major competitions. Vadlejch and Weber are the most consistent in the field when it comes to consistently throwing far but have not turned that into gold medals yet. It was probably a good sign for Nadeem that he has already returned to action this season, competing in the Paris Diamond League where he improved his length with each throw. Peters also has the ability to turn up for the biggest events and has some decent throws this season. It should come down to those five although javelin is always an event where a shock can happen. I will side with Chopra based on his big event experience

🥇Neeraj Chopra 🇮🇳

🥈Jakub Vadlejch 🇨🇿

🥉Arshad Nadeem 🇵🇰

Men’s Hammer

This event has tended to be dominated by the older names, however a new face emerged at the 2023 World Championship as Ethan Katzberg (Canada) took gold. The 22-year-old was a Commonwealth silver medalist in 2022. Before that Pawel Fajdek (Poland) had won five World Championships in a row. He had twice been a world leader, but at the Tokyo Olympics, he only finished third. At the Olympics, it was Wojciech Nowicki (Poland) who took gold. He has been world leader four times and finished second at the last two World Championships. Behind him in 2023 was Bence Halasz (Hungary), spurred on by a home crowd. He also won bronze in 2019 and was second in the 2022 European Championship behind Nowicki. In third was Eivind Henriksen (Norway). He also won bronze in the 2022 World Championship and silver in the Tokyo Olympics. Quentin Bigot (France) finished fifth in Tokyo and has a silver medal from the 2019 World Championship and finished fourth in 2017 and 2022. Mykhaylo Kokhan (Ukraine) was fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and has twice finished fifth in the World Championships. Rudy Winkler (United States) had the furthest throw in 2020, the second furthest in 2021 and the third furthest in 2023 but is yet to produce them in a major championship. Yann Chaussinand (France) is the eighth furthest thrower this season and will be representing the home fans. Daniel Haugh (United States) has been in the top eight at the last two World Championships. Wang Qi (China) is the reigning Asian Games champion.

This is likely a battle between the new blood of Katzberg and Kokhan as the Polish pair of Fajdek and Nowicki look to relive their primes. Halasz and Winkler are the men in the middle. Katzberg has gone over 82m a few times this year which Fajdek last did in 2021. Assuming he performs in the final, he should take gold. Behind him, Kokhan has also developed some consistency this year and I think he can break up the Polish pair.

🥇Ethan Katzberg 🇨🇦

🥈Wojciech Nowicki 🇵🇱

🥉Mykhaylo Kokhan 🇺🇦

Men’s Decathlon

Kevin Mayer (France) will be absolutely desperate to show his best form. He is the world record holder and twice world champion but is only a double silver medalist at the Olympics. At the 2023 World Championships, he pulled out with injury but a home Olympics will hopefully see Mayer at his peak. The current Olympic champion is Damien Warner (Canada). He put together his personal best score that day and has mainly been a medalist rather than a champion. He has two World Championship silvers and two World Championship bronzes. Bronze medalist in 2022 was Zach Ziemek (United States). In 2023, the bronze medalist was Lindon Victor (Grenada) who won the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Nicklas Kaul (Germany) is another former world champion who will be competing after winning in 2019. He was also the European champion in 2022. Compatriot Leo Neugebauer (Germany) is only 24 and led the 2023 World Championships after day one, only to fade into fifth. Another 24-year-old is Ayden Owens-Delerme (Puerto Rico). He came fourth at the 2022 World Championship. The final notable 24-year-old is Ashley Moloney(Australia). Of the group he has had the most success, winning bronze at the Tokyo Olympics in the year he also had the third-best score. Janek Oiglane (Estonia) won bronze in 2017 but could only finish sixth in 2023. Karel Tilga (Estonia) was the fourth-placed finisher at the 2023 World Championship. Compatriot Johannes Erm (Estonia) win the European title with the second-biggest score of the year. He finished ahead of Sander Skotheim (Norway) and Makenson Gletty (France). Sven Roosen (Netherlands) was second in Gotzis earlier in the year.

This feels like a close-run contest. Warner is the last man to score over 9000, back in 2021, but he feels on the decline now. Mayer is another who is looking to recapture his best form but even in front of the French crowd, it feels tough to predict. Neugebauer seems to tick the boxes of major competition form and strong performances this year. LePage is capable of big scores but has only competed once this season which is a red flag. Other potential contenders include Kaul, Owens-Dulorne and the Estonians.

🥇Leo Neguebauer 🇩🇪

🥈Damien Warner 🇨🇦

🥉Nicklas Kaul 🇩🇪

Women’s 100m

This race has arguably lost some of the lustre that it looked like having a year ago. It still features one of the greatest sprinters of all time. Shelly Ann Fraser-Pryce (Jamaica) was the Olympic champion in 2008 and 2012 and is a five-time world champion. She will be 37 at the Olympics but her times are showing no signs of slowing down. Shericka Jackson (Jamaica) is the double reigning World Championship silver medalist after winning bronze in Tokyo and the fastest woman in the world in 2023. The 2023 world champion was Sha’Carri Richardson (United States). She has been the third fastest woman in the world three times and was perhaps unfortunate to miss out on competing at the Tokyo Olympics after testing positive for marijuana. Compatriots Melissa Jefferson (United States) and Twanisha Terry (United States) have both run fast times in recent years but have not particularly challenged at major finals. Marie Josee Ta Lou (Ivory Coast) is a perennial contender but doesn’t get the win in major competitions. She has a 2017 World Championship silver and a 2019 bronze before finishing fourth at the Olympics and 2023 World Championships. Julien Alfred (St Lucia) will only be 23 but has already finished fifth at the 2023 World Championship. She also came second at the 2022 Commonwealth Games, where she finished a place ahead of Daryll Neita (Great Britain). She was also the bronze medalist in the 2022 European Championship. Compatriot Dina Asher-Smith (Great Britain) has a silver medal from the 2019 World Championship after the second-fastest time in 2018. Gina Luckenkemper (Germany) was the 2022 European champion but Ewa Swoboda (Poland) was the best of the Europeans in the 2023 World Championship finishing sixth. Mujinga Kambundji (Switzerland) was in the Tokyo Olympic final and is a European silver medalist from 2022. Michelle-Lee Ahye (Trinidad and Tobago) will compete but is surely past her best now, which included being second fastest in 2017. Both Gina Bass (Gambia) and Patrizia van der Werken (Luxembourg) have won Diamond League events this season. Rosemary Chukwuma (Nigeria), Tia Clayton (Jamaica) and Zoe Hobbs (New Zealand) are also potential contenders.

The reason this has lost some of its lustre is Richardson looks like she has an edge over her rivals. She has the Championship experience as well as consistently fast times this year. Behind her, Fraser-Pryce has not been seen much this season but could that be a positive as the veteran looks to peak for this race? Jackson has looked stronger but will likely be concentrating on the 200m. That will give hope to the likes of Alfred, Asher-Smith, Clayton and Jefferson.

🥇Sha’Carri Richardson 🇺🇸

🥈Julien Alfred 🇱🇨

🥉Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce 🇯🇲

Women’s 200m

Shericka Jackson (Jamaica) is the double reigning world champion and the second-fastest woman of all time. A number of sprinters are missing from this event although all are arguably stronger over 100m. Double reigning Olympic champion Elaine Thompson nor Shelly-Anne Fraser-Pryce are competing with Sha’Carri Richardson not qualifying. The silver medallist at the 2023 World Championship was Gabrielle Thomas (United States). A genuine 200m specialist, she has an Olympic bronze from Tokyo as well. Brittany Brown (United States) won silver at the 2019 World Championship. The bronze medal winner was Mujinga Kambundji (Switzerland) before she became the 2022 and 2024 European Champion. Helene Parisot (France) and Ida Karstoft (Denmark) are both European Championship bronze medal winners. Fourth at the 2023 World Championship was Julien Alfred (St Lucia). Marie Josee Ta Lou (Ivory Coast) is a better 100m runner but has a 2017 World Championship silver medal and finished fifth in the Tokyo Olympics. Dina Asher-Smith (Great Britain) was the 2019 world champion and won bronze in 2022. She could not beat compatriot Daryll Neita (Great Britain) in 2023 though as Neita took fifth. Neita won a Diamond League event at the start of the season, as did Torrie Lewis (Australia). McKenzie Long (United States) is the second fastest runner this year as Americans have dominated this event. Favour Ofili (Nigeria) is a Commonwealth Games silver medalist and one of the fastest non-Americans this year. Shanti Pereira (Singapore) is the 2023 Asian Games winner.

Thomas has been incredibly strong this year but Jackson has had the consistency over several years. Strong rumours of an injury for Jackson and the strong form of Thomas this year mean that I will go with Thomas to get gold. Again, it probably looks more interesting behind them. The Americans, especially Long, have been consistently quick this season. Alfred, Asher-Smith and Ofili are probably the other likeliest contenders. Alfred showed how dangerous she is at the London Diamond League when only a late burst from Thomas stopped her taken the win.

🥇Gabrielle Thomas 🇺🇸

🥈Shericka Jackson 🇯🇲

🥉Julien Alfred 🇱🇨

Women’s 400m

The 400m competition at the 2023 World Championship saw a field missing a lot of big names. Marileidy Paulino (Dominican Republic) took advantage, winning gold to add to her silver from 2022 and Olympic silver from Tokyo. She ran the fastest time in the world in 2022 and was second in 2021. Shaunae Miller-Uibo (Bahamas) missed the Championships after giving birth in 2023 but is the double reigning Olympic champion and was the 2022 world champion. Salwa Eid Nasser (Bahrain) beat her in 2019 when running the third fastest time of all time. She has since served a drug ban. Behind Paulino in 2023 was Natalia Kaczmarek (Poland) after her European silver in 2022. Sada Williams (Bahamas) came third in both the 2022 and 2023 World Championships. She ran the fourth fastest time in 2022 when she won the Commonwealth Games. Rhasidat Adeleke (Ireland) is only 21 but finished fourth at the 2023 World Championships. Lieke Klaver (Netherlands) is another potential European contender who finished fourth in the 2022 World Championship and sixth in 2023. Nickisha Price (Jamaica) has gone the fastest this season in the field. Generally, the American team is strong and this year they are represented by Aaliyah Butler (United States), Kaylyn Brown (United States) and Kendall Ellis (United States). Cynthia Bolingo (Belgium), Justyna Swiety-Ersetic (Poland) and Roxana Gomez (Cuba) have all made major championship finals in recent years. Victoria Ohuruogo (Great Britain) is not at the level of her sister but did win a Commonwealth Games silver in 2022. Amber Anning (Great Britain) is the fastest Brit this year and the third-quickest European.

Neither Miller-Uibo nor Nasser has shown anywhere near the level of form required to be competitive here. This should be all about Paulino, but she is only the fifth fastest in the field this season. That means Adeleke, Kaczmarek, Price and Williams are serious contenders. Brown is also a serious contender whilst Anning and Klaver could potentially have a shooting running their best race. I predict a shock here with Price able to take Paulino into deep waters.

🥇Nickisha Price 🇯🇲

🥈Marileidy Paulino 🇩🇴

🥉Natalia Kaczmarek 🇵🇱

Women’s 800m

The testosterone rulings have had the biggest impact on the 800m over the last five years. However, a new generation unaffected by those rulings has come through. Leader of it and reigning Olympic champion, Athing Mu, missed qualifications in the trial due to a trip. The current world champion will be racing, that is Mary Moraa (Kenya). She was also the winner of the Commonwealth Games in 2022 after finishing third at the 2022 World Championships. Keely Hodgkinson (Great Britain) will also only be 22 in Paris. She has made a habit out of finishing second. That was the case of the 2022 Commonwealth Games, the Tokyo Olympics and the last two World Championships. Halimah Nakaayi (Uganda) was the 2019 World Champion. Natoya Goule-Toppin (Jamaica) is often a feature on the world lead list but she has struggled to make a dent in major global finals. Compatriot Adelle Tracey (Jamaica) is easy to spot with her smiling grimace and made the 2023 World Championship final. as did Nia Akins (United States) who finished sixth. Jemma Reekie (Great Britain) finished fifth at the 2023 World Championship after finishing fourth at the Tokyo Olympics. Habitam Alemu (Ethiopia) was sixth but is probably on the decline. Rose Mary Almanza (Cuba) was the third fastest woman in 2021. Renelle Lamote (France) was second at the 2022 European Championship, ahead of Anna Wielgosz (Poland). In 2024, Gabriela Gajanova (Slovakia) was second ahead of Anais Bourgoin (France). Tharushi Karunarathna (Sri Lanka) was the winner of the 2023 Asian Games. Prudence Sekgodiso (South Africa) has gone the third fastest this year but does not have the major championship experience of most others despite winning two Diamond League events this year. Neither does Pheobe Gill (Great Britain) but she won the British title as a seventeen-year-old and is the third fastest woman this season.

Results over the last few years suggest this comes down to Hodgkinson vs Moraa. Moraa has won gold in two of the finals they come up against each other but Hodgkinson beat her earlier in the season. I will edge to Hodgkinson but think to beat Moraa, she needs to make the final fast as per her run at the London Diamond League. The absence of Mu in theory opens up another podium spot. Akins, Alemu, Nakaayi, Reekie and Sekgodiso will probably be the likely contenders. I have the most faith in Reekie on that list and think she gets a bronze.

🥇Keely Hodgkinson 🇬🇧

🥈Mary Moraa 🇰🇪

🥉Jemma Reekie 🇬🇧

Women’s 1500m

Faith Kipyegon (Kenya) has dominated this event like no woman ever has. She is the reigning double Olympic champion and a three-time world champion. 2023 was the best year of an impressive career as she set a world record. She improved on it at the Paris Diamond League earlier this season. Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) is the only woman to have taken a world title off Kipyegon since her emergence, coming in 2019. She is the reigning Olympic and World Championship bronze medalist. Another familiar foe is Laura Muir (Great Britain). She was second in Tokyo and in 2022 came third in the World Championship along with winning the European Championship and Commonwealth Games. 2023 was tougher though with a change of coach and she only finished sixth at the World Championship. Diribe Welteji (Ethiopia) emerged as a new rival when winning silver in 2023 and ran the second-fastest time. Compatriot Gudaf Tsegay (Ethiopia) also has a World Championship silver from 2022, improving on bronze from 2019 and consistently runs fast times. Ciara Mageean (Ireland) has emerged as a contender over the last few years. She came second in the 2022 European Championships and Commonwealth Games before finishing fourth at the 2023 World Championship. Jessica Hull (Australia) is another familiar face with a beaming smile. She is another consistent presence in the big races but her World Championship best is seventh which she managed in 2022 and 2023. Hull became the fifth fastest woman of all time when following Kipyegon home in Paris. Birke Haylom (Ethiopia) has the fourth fastest time this year after chasing home Tsegay in China.

Linden Hall (Australia) and Winnie Nanyondo (Uganda) both made the Olympic final in Tokyo. Nelly Chepchirchir(Kenya) was fifth in the 2023 World Championship. Georgia Bell (Great Britain) came second at the 2024 European Championships with Agathe Guillemot (France) winning bronze.

This is all about Kipyegon and I think she should win a third Olympic title. How the race is run could affect who else does well. In Paris, she took the pace on after 800m of a pacemaker. She won’t have the luxury of a pacemaker here and although she can do her own pace, it will probably not be a race near that pace. Hassan enters this race as a bit of an unknown over this distance and I can see her struggling. Mageean will finish fast but probably needs it slower than this will be run. Tsegay and Hull will probably want this fast whereas Muir and Welteji are probably able to cope if it is slower. I think this does veer to a faster pace and it allows Hull to take bronze.

🥇Faith Kipyegon 🇰🇪

🥈Gudaf Tsegay 🇪🇹

🥉Jessica Hull 🇦🇺

Women’s 5000m

Faith Kipyegon (Kenya) showed her versatility when winning her first world crown at 5,000m at the 2023 World Championship after setting a world record earlier in the season. That world record was obliterated later that season by Gudef Tsegay (Ethiopia), the 2022 world champion, who won bronze at the Tokyo Olympics. Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) was the winner in Tokyo. She won bronze at the 2017 World Championship before winning silver in 2023. Behind her was Beatrice Chebet (Kenya). She was the Diamond League final winner in 2022 as well as winning silver at the 2022 World Championships. Margaret Chelimo Kipkemboi (Kenya) came fourth in both 2022 and 2023 after silver at the 2019 World Championship. Ejgayehu Taye (Ethiopia) was the world leader in 2022 but her best global finishes were fifth in the Tokyo Olympics and the 2023 World Championship. Compatriot Medina Eisa (Ethiopia) came sixth in 2023. Karoline Bjerkeli Grovdal (Norway), Nadia Barrocletti (Italy) and Nozomi Tanaka (Japan) have all made recent major finals but not are feasibly expected to compete.

This is not a great event when it comes to strength in depth. However, it is a battle of

three runners who are likely going down in the history books. I think this comes down to Kipyegon or Tsegay. Tsegay will surely try to run the kick out of her meaning this is fast. I do keep the faith with Kipyegon though and think she seals an incredible double. Behind them, Hassan will likely be battling the rest of the Ethiopians and the Kenyans. Hassan seems to be slowly migrating to the longer distances and this may hamper her, but I think she has just enough for bronze.

🥇Faith Kipyegon 🇰🇪

🥈Gudaf Tsegay 🇪🇹

🥉Sifan Hassan 🇳🇱

Women’s 10000m

With Gidey moving to the road, this event has suffered a drop in quality. In 2023, it looked like Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) was going to add to her 2019 World Championship as she led on the final straight only to trip up whilst in the lead. She is also the reigning Olympic champion and her fast finish always makes her dangerous. Her fall allowed Ethiopia to take a clean sweep of the podium. Gudaf Tsegay was originally scheduled to take part in this event but has pulled out. Her two compatriots that will be competing are Fotyen Tesfay (Ethiopia) and Tsigie Gebreselema (Ethiopia). Margaret Kipkemboi (Kenya) has been the leading Kenyan over recent years. She won bronze at the 2022 World Championship and was the third fastest in the world in 2022. Beatrice Chebet (Kenya) became the first woman under 29 minutes when setting a world record earlier in the year. The other competitor from Kenya is Lillian Kasait Rengeruk (Kenya). Elish McColgan (Great Britain) was the 2022 Commonwealth Games champion and won silver at the 2022 European Championship. Nadia Battocletti (Italy) won the 2024 European Championship ahead of Diane van Es (Netherlands). Rahel Daniel (Eritrea) was fifth at the 2022 World Championship.

Again, this isn’t a particularly deep race. There was a clear top three and it is probably a stretch to suggest anyone past the top seven can medal. However, Tsegay has pulled out meaning this likely comes down to Chebet and Hassan. The battle for bronze will also be intriguing but I lean to Kipkemboi. I think this comes down to how the race is won. If this is fast I think Chebet can potentially work away from Hassan but I would favour the Dutch lady in a sprint. These races do not tend to be quick and I think that will suit Hassan in taking gold.

🥇Sifan Hassan 🇳🇱

🥈Beatrice Chebet 🇰🇪

🥉Margaret Kipkemboi 🇰🇪

Women’s Marathon

The three fastest women of all time will compete against each other as well as some track stars. Tigst Assefa (Ethiopia) set the world record in Berlin last year after running her first marathon ever in 2022. She was beaten in the 2024 London Marathon by reigning Olympic Champion Peres Jepchirchir (Kenya). The runner-up in Tokyo was Brigid Kosgei (Kenya) who was the former record holder. The second fastest of all time is Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) having won two marathon majors in 2023, moving from the track. Also moving from the track is Hellen Obiri (Kenya). She has won two consecutive Boston Marathons as well as the 2023 New York Marathon. The current world champion is Amane Beriso (Ethiopia) and she was a runner-up to Obiri in Boston in 2023. Rose Chelimo (Bahrain) was a world champion in 2017 and won silver in 2019. Compatriot Eunice Chumba (Bahrain) won the 2023 Asian Games, having finished seventh in Tokyo. Mao Ichiyama (Japan) was eighth in Tokyo, having been fourth fastest in 2021. Helalia Johannes (Namibia) was the bronze medal winner at the 2019 World Championships and the 2022 Commonwealth Games where gold was won by Jessica Stenson (Australia). Aleksandra Lisowska (Poland) won the 2022 European Championship with Matea Parlov Kostro (Croatia) behind in second. Fatima Ezzahra Gardadi (Morocco) was the bronze medal winner at the 2023 World Championship. Behind her in fourth was Lonah Chemtai Salpeter (Israel). She had won bronze the year before and was the second fastest in 2020. Last season Alemu Megertu (Ethiopia) was on the podium in both the Chicago and London Marathons. Magdalena Shauri (Tanzania) came third in the 2023 Berlin Marathon.

This is a strong field and it will be intriguing to see the tactics. Hassan was very impressive when winning her two marathons but she has a hectic schedule so you probably prefer someone who is concentrating on these events. Jepchirchir has obvious claims given her performance in big events over recent years. Assefa and Obiri have questions about how they will perform in a major championship race. Kosgei has back class but has not been under 2.19 since 2022. Beriso and Megertu can also be competitive.

🥇Peres Jepchirchir 🇰🇪

🥈Hellen Obiri 🇰🇪

🥉Sifan Hassan 🇳🇱

Women’s 100m Hurdles

This will likely be an open renewal of the 100m hurdles. Tobi Amusan (Nigeria) is the world record holder and was the 2022 world champion. It was a dominant 2022, also winning the Commonwealth Games and the Diamond League. She finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and in the 2023 World Championship finished sixth after a turbulent year which included a drug ban overturned on appeal. The current Olympic champion is Jasmine Camacho-Quinn (Puerto Rico). She was third in the 2022 World Championship and second in 2023. The winner in 2023 was Danielle Williams (Jamaica) belatedly adding to her 2015 crown. She was the world leader in 2019 and the Diamond League winner. The rest of the Jamaican team and the American team has a fresh look. Janeek Brown (Jamaica) was third fastest in 2019 when she made the World Championship final. Ackera Nugent (Jamaica) made the final last year, coming fifth and is the second fastest this season. United States have the fastest woman in the world this year in Masai Russell (United States). Alaysha Johnson (United States) and Grace Stark (United States) have the joint third-fastest time in the world this year along with Cyrena Samba-Mayela (France). She was the 2024 European champion ahead of Ditaji Kambundji (Switzerland). She won a Diamond League event earlier in the season. In fourth at the 2023 World Championship was Devynne Charlton (Bahamas). She also came second in the 2022 Commonwealth Games behind Amusan. Third place in that competition was Cindy Sember (Great Britain) after she finished fifth in the 2022 World Championship. European champion in 2022 was Pia Skrzyszowska(Poland) ahead of Luca Kozak (Hungary). Lin Yuwei (China) was the 2023 Asian Games champion. Nadine Visser (Netherlands) has been a consistent major championship finalist after being the fastest in 2020.

The lack of major championship experience of a lot of the impressive hurdlers in the field means this has a relatively open look. I have long been a fan of Camacho-Quinn and think she is the strongest of the established names. Williams showed in 2023 that all it takes is a strong day and we can have a shock winner. Russell and Samba-Mayela feel the likeliest of the new names. I think this is a bit of a must-watch final with an open feel.

🥇Cyrena Samba-Mayela 🇫🇷

🥈Jasmine Camacho-Quinn 🇵🇷

🥉Ackara Nugent 🇯🇲

Women’s 400m Hurdles

This could be one of the battles of the Olympics. Sydney McLaughlin (United States) set a world record and is the current Olympic champion as well as the 2022 world champion. She missed the 2023 World Championship through injury so rival Femke Bol (Netherlands) took the crown. She has steadily improved from finishing third in Tokyo to second in the 2022 World Championships. Fourth in 2023 was Kemi Adekoya (Bahrain). She had served a four-year ban for stanolozol but came back looking stronger than ever. In front of her was Rushell Clayton (Jamaica) who took bronze at the 2023 World Championship and in 2019. Compatriot Janieve Russell (Jamaica) was the Commonwealth Games winner in 2022. She finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics. Anna Ryzhykova (Ukraine) looks past her best but she was the second fastest woman in 2020. Compatriot Viktoriia Tkachuk (Ukraine) was third fastest in 2020 but did beat Ryzhykova when taking silver at the 2022 European Championships. Anna Cockrell(United States) and Gianni Woodruff (Panama) both made the Tokyo Olympic final. Ayomide Folorunso (Italy) was in the 2023 World Championship final. Cathelijn Peeters (Netherlands) and Louise Maraval (France) were both medalists in the 2024 European Championship.

Hopefully, this is a great race between the two best in this event ever. Despite Bol being brilliant, McLaughlin has the better form and the stronger championship form. I think this ends in a world record with them both probably beating the old record. Behind them is a closer contest. Clayton has had strong Diamond League results this season and has championship pedigree. Adekoya looked like a serious contender last year but has not returned to that form. Cockrell is another possible contender.

🥇Sydney McLaughlin 🇺🇸

🥈Femke Bol 🇳🇱

🥉Rushell Clayton 🇯🇲

Women’s 3000m Steeplechase

This is such an open event, only one currently competing major championship winner has ever won two gold medals. In 2019 the world champion was Beatrice Chepkoech (Kenya). Twice the world leader and current world record holder, she also won silver at the 2023 World Championship. Ahead of her was Winfred Mutile Yavi (Bahrain) who had finished fourth at the past two World Championships. Peruth Chemutai (Uganda) won at the Tokyo Olympics, but aside from that has performed pretty unremarkably in major championships. She is the fastest woman this year though. Norah Jeruto (Kazakhstan) was the 2022 world champion. She was also the world leader in 2021 and 2022. Gesa Felicitas Krause (Germany) was the 2019 World Championship bronze medalist and finished fifth in the Tokyo Olympics but is rebounding from having a baby. Faith Cherotich (Kenya) won bronze at the 2023 World Championship. Jackline Chepkoech (Kenya) was the third fastest in 2023 and won the 2022 Commonwealth Games. She was ahead of Elizabeth Bird (Great Britain) who also won bronze at the 2022 and 2024 European Championships. Lea Mayer (Great Britain) was the silver medalist at the 2022 European Championship. Luiza Gega (Albania) is a front-runner who won the European Championship in 2022 and finished fifth in the 2022 World Championship. The top finishing European in the 2023 World Championship was Alice Finot (France) who came fifth before then winning the 2024 European Championship. Valerie Constien (United States) is the third fastest this year after winning the American trials with Courtney Wayment (United States) behind her. Sembo Almayew (Ethiopia) was the fifth fastest in 2023.

This is a hard event to call given the rotation of winners. If there is to be a new winner, you would likely point to one of the Kenyans although Europe does have some depth here and have definite medal chances. Chepkoech has probably looked strongest this season but can go off too fast at times. Yavi is perhaps more stable whereas Chemutai can be hit or miss.

🥇Beatrice Chepkoech 🇰🇪

🥈Faith Cherotich 🇰🇪

🥉Winfred Mutile Yavi 🇧🇭

Women’s 20km Walk

The reigning Olympic champion is Antonella Palmisano (Italy). She finished third in the 2017 and 2023 World Championships. The 2016 Olympic champion was Liu Hong (China) who went on to win bronze in Tokyo. She was also the 2019 world champion. In 2022, the winner was Kimberly Garcia (Peru). It was a particularly strong year for Garcia, she had the second-fastest time and also won at Rio Maior. In 2023, she finished fourth in the World Championship and won in Warszawa. Maria Perez (Spain) was the 2023 world champion. She was fourth at the Tokyo Olympics. The other medalist in Tokyo was Sandra Arenas (Colombia) who won silver. She also finished fifth in the 2017 and 2019 World Championships. The fifth-placed finisher at both the 2023 World Championship and Tokyo Olympics was Alegna Gonzalez (Mexico). She also won the 2023 Dudince tour event. Yang Jiayu (China) won in Rio in 2023 and was also the 2017 world champion. Jemima Montag (Australia) was the 2023 World Championship silver medalist after finishing fourth in 2022 and sixth in the Tokyo Olympics. Katarzyna Zdzieblo (Poland) won silver at the 2022 World Championship and the European Championship. Antigoni Drisbioti (Greece) won that European title, with Saskia Feige (Germany) back in third. Erica de Sena (Brazil) has finished fourth at two World Championships. Ma Zhenxia (China) was fourth fastest in 2023 and has been the fastest in the field this year. Other possible contenders who have been in the top eight of recent World Championships include Ana Cabecinha (Portugal), Glenda Morejon (Ecuador), Kumiko Okada (Japan), Nanako Fujii (Japan), Valentina Trapletti (Italy) and Viviane Lyra (Brazil).

Again, this is an open race as this event can lead to surprises. Jiayu would be my favourite of the Chinese team. Drisbioti has been strong but mainly in the European events rather than on the world stage. Palmasiano medalled in the last Olympics and I can see her repeating this year. Garcia is another impressive performer along with Perez.

🥇Kimberley Garcia 🇵🇪

🥈Maria Perez 🇪🇸

🥉Yang Jiayu 🇨🇳

Women’s 4x100 Relay

The United States has dominated this event over recent tournaments despite Jamaica having a stronger lineup on paper. They were 2017, 2022 and 2023 world champions whilst only winning silver at the Tokyo Olympics. Jamaica were the Olympic champions adding the 2019 World Championship. Since then they have won two silvers. Great Britain won bronze at the Olympics. They were silver in 2017 and 2019 before winning bronze in 2023. Nigeriaupset England and Jamaica at the 2022 Commonwealth Games and also finished fourth in the 2022 World Championships. Germany beat them into bronze and also were European champions in 2022. They are a consistent fixture in finals but medalling may be above them. Switzerland are in a similar boat but they finished fourth in the 2019 World Championships and Tokyo Olympics. Poland was the European Championship silver medalist ahead of Italy in third. They were fourth-place finishers at the 2023 World Championships. The Netherlands won bronze at the 2024 European Championships. Ivory Coast were the third-fastest team in 2023. France put together a good performance at the World Relays where they won silver. Trinidad and Tobago are historically strong but perhaps not as good right now. Australia, Belgium, Canada and Spain are also competing.

Historically this is between Jamaica and the United States. The United States feels like the stronger team at the moment with Jamaica’s best sprinters arguably on the decline. Instead, I think Britain can creep ahead of them, pinching a silver. They feel like a clear top three ahead of Germany and Switzerland.

🥇United States 🇺🇸

🥈Great Britain 🇬🇧

🥉Jamaica 🇯🇲

Women’s 4x400m Relay

United States will enter this as the favourite. They are the reigning Olympic champions and won three of the last four World Championships. The exception was at the 2023 World Championships where a final sprint from Femke Bol handed the gold to the Netherlands. They were the European champions in 2022 but had finished sixth at the Tokyo Olympics. Behind the Netherlands in 2023 and the United States in 2022 were Jamaica. They won bronze in the 2019 World Championship and the Tokyo Olympics. Great Britain won bronze in 2023 after finishing fourth in 2022. Before that, their last medal came with a 2017 silver. Poland was an Olympic silver medalist. They won bronze at the 2017 World Championship and silver in 2019. Canada won the 2022 Commonwealth Games and has finished fourth at the last three global championships. Cuba made the Tokyo Olympic final but could only finish eighth. Ahead of them in seventh were Belgium and they have consistently made major championship finals. Ireland, Italy and Switzerland have all been World Championship finals over the last couple of seasons. France was the fourth-placed finisher in the 2017 World Championship before finishing fifth in 2022. Germany, India, Norway and Spain will also be competing.

The United States has generally won this event but did not in 2023. You have to make them favourites based on the strength in depth. Jamaica have a number of strong options here which should make them a shoo-in for podium. The Netherlands have two strong performers whilst Poland has a strong team. Britain has depth but maybe not the strength to go with the best nations.

🥇United States 🇺🇸

🥈Poland 🇵🇱

🥉Jamaica 🇯🇲

Women’s High Jump

The high jump has recently looked quite competitive but Yaroslava Mahuchikh (Ukraine) has begun to look dominant. She is the current world champion, improving from silver medals in 2019 and 2022. At the Tokyo Olympics, she could only win bronze but set an incredible world record in Paris earlier in the season. The 2022 world champion was Eleanor Patterson (Australia) but she could only win silver in 2023. Compatriot Nicola Olyslagers (Australia), with her constant positivity, was the bronze medal winner after her Olympic silver from Tokyo and joint-highest jumper in 2023. Vashti Cunningham (United States) also has a bronze medal from 2019. Iryna Gerashchenko (Ukraine) has not won a major medal yet but is always competitive and finished fourth at the last Olympics and 2022 World Championships before coming fifth in 2023. Morgan Lake (Great Britain) came fourth in 2023. She finished ahead of Lamara Distin (Jamaica) who was the 2022 Commonwealth Games winner and is one of five women to go over 2m this year. Rachel Glenn (United States) has also hit those heights this season. Mirela Demireva (Bulgaria) won silver at the 2016 Olympics but is no longer in the form that suggests she can compete. Airine Palsyte (Lithuania) and Michaela Hruba (Czech Republic) will also be looking to recapture past form. Angelica Topic (Serbia) won some Diamond League events at the start of the season and at only 19 is a double European medalist. Safina Sadullayeva (Uzbekistan) is the 2023 Asian Games winner and has been a bit of a fixture in major championship finals.

Mahuchikh has been consistently strong over recent years but this year has been a standout and I think she will win here. Behind her is an interesting battle. The Australian pair have been so strong in recent years. Distin and Topic have the ability to clear decent heights consistently but have yet to do it in major championships. Other possible contenders, especially if the height required is lower than expected include Gerashchenko and Lake.

🥇Yaroslava Mahuchikh 🇺🇦

🥈Nicola Olyslagers 🇦🇺

🥉Angelica Topic 🇷🇸

Women’s Pole Vault

Katie Moon (United States) is the reigning Olympic and double world champion. She shared the 2023 World Championship victory with Nina Kennedy (Australia). The Australian won bronze in 2022 where she also won the Commonwealth Games and Diamond League final. Wilma Murto (Finland) was the bronze medal winner in the 2023 World Championship after taking the 2022 European Championship. Behind her was Katerina Stefanidi (Greece). An Olympic champion in 2016 and world champion in 2017, she seems to be on the downswing of her career as results start to go backwards. She was fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and fifth in the 2022 World Championships. Tina Sutej (Slovenia) is 35 but still a regular on the leaderboard of major competitions despite not medalling.Robeilys Peinado (Venezuela) was a World Championship bronze medalist in 2017, as a nineteen-year-old but has never quite fulfilled the promise shown. Holly Bradshaw (Great Britain) was the Olympic bronze medalist in Tokyo but again looks like being potentially past her best. Compatriot Molly Caudery (Great Britain) finished fifth at the 2023 World Championship and is constantly improving. She tied with Angelica Moser (Switzerland) who also won a Diamond League event this season. Eliza McCartney (New Zealand) has a history of big vaults, including the second-highest in 2023 and third-highest in 2018. Alysha Newman (Canada) seems to be returning to the form which helped her onto the podium in the Diamond League finals before Tokyo. Bridget Williams (United States) came eighth in the 2023 World Championship final. Li Ling (China) was sixth in 2022 and won the 2023 Asian Games. Brynn King (United States), Imogen Ayris (New Zealand) and Roberta Bruni (Italy) will also be hoping to compete.

This has the potential to be one of the standout events. It feels like five women are very capable of winning with another three probably capable of getting into the medal positions. Moon has been so strong in recent years but her from this year has not matched up. Instead, Caudery and Kennedy have taken an edge. Moser has followed them and also looks impressive. Murto has not replicated her form from 2023 but is clearly a talent. Sutej has not replicated her form either but despite her age will hope to compete. McCartney has heights over the last few years and needs to translate that to major championships whilst Newman is looking like she may put it all together again.

🥇Nina Kennedy 🇦🇺

🥈Molly Caudery 🇬🇧

🥉Katie Moon 🇺🇸

Women’s Long Jump

When Malaika Mihambo (Germany) was the Olympic and double world champion it felt like we were entering a period of sustained dominance. She would miss the 2023 World Championships though and hasn’t been the longest jumper in the world since 2020. Ivana Spanovic (Serbia) took advantage of her absence to become the 2023 world champion. She has been an ever-present in big finals, winning Olympic bronze in 2016 before finishing fourth in Tokyo. She also has two World Championship bronze medals as well as winning two Diamond League finals. She beat Tara Davis-Woodhall (United States) into the silver medal position at the 2023 World Championship. The bronze medalist was Alina Rotaru-Kottmann (Romania). Ese Brume (Nigeria) is a returning medalist from Tokyo, having won bronze. She has a bronze and a silver from the World Championships and was the world leader in 2021. She also won the Commonwealth Games where she beat Brooke Buschkuehl (Australia) who had the longest jump in 2022. The second-longest jumper in 2023 was Ackelia Smith (Jamaica) but she needs to put it together in a global tournament still. Marthe Koale (Burundi) was seventh at the 2023 World Championship and won a Diamond League event earlier this year. As did Larissa Iapichino (Italy) who was fifth in the 2023 World Championship. Teammates Fatima Diame (Spain) and Tessy Ebosele (Spain) were both in the top eight at the last World Championship. Jasmine Moore (United States) went fourth furthest last year and is third furthest this year. Plamena Mitkova(Bulgaria) has gone fourth furthest and is only 19. Agate de Sousa (Portugal) was the bronze medalist at the 2024 European Championship.

Long jump feels like an event that can go lots of way depending on who feels good on the day. The jump from Mihambo when winning the European Championship was incredible and in that form, she will be tough to beat. Davis-Woodhall has been arguably more consistent at a higher level. I think this should be a battle between them. However, as referenced all it takes is a good or bad day by competitors and it can look different. Spanovic is nowhere near the required level this season and I can see this coming down to Buschkuehl, Iapochino and Smith.

🥇Malaika Mihambo 🇩🇪

🥈Tara Davis-Woodhall 🇺🇸

🥉Larisa Iapochino 🇮🇹

Women’s Triple Jump

This event has been dominated by Yulimar Rojas. Unfortunately, she will not get a chance to further her legacy with an injury ruling her out of Paris. This does have the effect of making this an exciting competition, with no clear favourite. Maryna Bekh-Romanchuk (Ukraine) began her career as a long jumper before moving on to triple jump. She won silver at the 2023 World Championships after becoming the European champion in 2022. There are two competitors who will compete in both events at the Olympics. Jasmine Moore (United States) was the second furthest jumper in 2023 whilst Ackelia Smith (Jamaica) is probably a better long jumper. The bronze medalist at the 2023 World Championship was Leyanis Perez (Cuba) improving on her fourth from 2022. Compatriot Liadagmis Povea (Cuba) is another who is medal-less at major championships but is always competitive. Another in a similar boat is Kimberly Williams (Jamaica). Compatriot Shanieka Ricketts (Jamaica) is also a consistent performer. She won the 2022 Commonwealth Games as well as the 2019 Diamond League. She has two World Championship silver medals but could only finish fourth in the 2023 World Championship and the Tokyo Olympics. Behind her at the Commonwealth Games was Thea Lafond (Dominica) and she has finished fifth at the last two World Championships. Tori Franklin (United States) came third at the 2022 World Championship and had the second-longest jump in 2018. Compatriot Keturah Orji (United States) was at the last Olympics, finishing seventh. Ana Peleteiro (Spain) won bronze in Tokyo and is the reigning European champion. Ilionis Guillaume (France) and Tugba Danismaz(Turkey) were the other medalists.

This will see someone take a victory that they would not have expected a year ago. It is a massive shame that Rojas is not here. Perez is only 22 and should still be improving. Lafond has gone over 15m this season but has not yet medalled in a major championship. I prefer Ricketts of the Jamaicans. Bekh-Romanchuk has championship experience in both of the jump events but will expect to medal. Peleteiro seems to also be returning strongly from a break due to giving birth.

🥇Leyanis Perez 🇨🇺

🥈Ana Peleteiro 🇪🇸

🥉Thea Lafond 🇩🇲

Women’s Shot Put

Chase Jackson (United States) is the reigning double-world champion which leaves her as the favourite. The most decorated shot putter is Gong Lijiao (China). She has an Olympic medal of all colours, two world titles, two world silvers and four World Championship bronzes. She does seem to unsurprisingly be past her best but is a definite medal contender. Behind her at the Tokyo Olympics was Raven Saunders (United States). She has served a year suspension for missed drug tests. In the 2023 World Championship, it was Sarah Mitton (Canada) who took silver. She had finished fourth in 2022, the same year she won the Commonwealth Games. She finished ahead of Danielle Thomas-Dodd (Jamaica). She has a 2019 World Championship silver and is usually competitive for medals. Maddie Wesche (New Zealand) finished third in the Commonwealth Games. She was sixth at the Tokyo Olympics and has finished seventh at the last two World Championships. Song Jiayuan (China) has once been fourth and once third in the seasonal top lists but her best major championship is fifth in the Tokyo Olympics. The 2022 and 2024 European Champion was Jessica Schilder (Netherlands) who was the bronze medalist at the 2023 World Championship. Compatriot Jordine van Klinken (Netherlands) was the bronze medalist at the 2022 European Championship improving to silver in 2024. Yemisi Ogunleye (Germany) won bronze in 2024. She has gone over 20m this season, along with Jaida Ross (United States). Fanny Roos (Sweden) made the last Olympic final but hasn’t been in the same form.

Jackson has been strongest over recent years, consistent in major events. However, she has not reached the distance that some of her competitors have this season. She has generally won the battles with them and is consistently throwing around 20m. Mitton has gone furthest and has also been consistent with it. I think she can reverse the World Championship placings with Jackson. Behind them, it should come down to Lijiao, Saunders and Schilder.

🥇Sarah Mitton 🇨🇦

🥈Chase Jackson 🇺🇸

🥉Jessica Schilder 🇳🇱

Women’s Discus

Sandra Elkasevic (Croatia) is one of the most decorated discus throwers of all time, a double Olympic and double world champion. The last of those titles was 2017 though, although she did win silver at the 2022 World Championships. She was behind Feng Bin (China) but she could only win bronze in 2023. The reigning Olympic champion is Valerie Allman (United States). Allman has been the longest thrower in the field four years in a row and won bronze at the 2022 World Championships before winning silver in 2023. The Olympic silver medalist was Kristin Pudenz (Germany). Melina Robert-Michon (France) won silver in 2016 and is a double World Championship medalist. Jorinde Van Klinken (Netherlands) has been the unlucky loser at the last two World Championships, finishing fourth. She was runner-up at the 2024 European Championship with Liliana Ca (Portugal) in third. She has been in the top eight of the last three major championships, including finishing fifth in Tokyo. Marike Steinacker (Germany) was eighth in Tokyo and has thrown the fourth fastest this year. Marija Tolj (Croatia) and Shanice Craft (Germany) have made World Championship finals over the last couple of years. Nigeria has two medalists at the 2022 Commonwealth Games with Chioma Onyekwere (Nigeria) winning and Obiageri Amaechi (Nigeria) taking bronze.

Yaime Perez has thrown furthest this year but will not be competing. That leaves Allman as a strong favourite. She has the seven longest throws of the year, excluding Perez, and has a good major championship pedigree. Elkasevic is definitely past her best but will be hoping to win another Olympic medal. Bin has been a consistent performer in recent years and will expect to be on the podium. Other possible contenders include Ca, Pudenz, Steinacker and van Klinken.

🥇Valerie Allman 🇺🇸

🥈Feng Bin 🇨🇳

🥉Sandra Elkasevic 🇭🇷

Women’s Hammer

Anita Wlodarczyk (Poland) is considered by most the greatest hammer thrower of all time. She holds the world record, is the triple reigning Olympic champion and is a four-time world champion. She has not won a world title medal since 2017 though and at 39 it would probably take winding the clocks back for her to triumph. Compatriot Malwina Kopron (Poland) finished third at the Tokyo Olympics after winning bronze at the 2017 World Championship. Wang Zheng (China) often finished behind Wlodarczyk, winning silver at the Tokyo Olympics and the 2017 World Championship. Jiao Zhao (China) has thrown further this season though. The American trials were particularly hot for this event. DeAnna Price (United States) was the bronze medalist in 2023 behind her teammate after being the 2019 world champion and has twice been the longest thrower in the world. Annette Echikunwoke(United States) won at the trial despite only being the fifth furthest American thrower this year. The other qualifier is Rachel Tanczos (United States), who is fourth on that list. The 2023 world champion was Camryn Rogers(Canada) improving on her silver from 2022. Bianca Ghelber (Romania) was the 2022 European champion and will be hoping to improve on her Olympic sixth from Tokyo. Hanna Skydan (Azerbaijan) was the fourth-place finisher at the 2023 World Championship after Sara Fantini (Italy) finished there in 2022. Alexandra Tavernier (France) was fourth at the Tokyo Olympics, having thrown second furthest in 2020. Zalina Marghieva (Moldova) has been the third furthest thrower in the field this season. Silja Kosonen (Finland) has made the last two World Championship finals.

Missing two of the top four throwers this season makes this an easier event to predict. Rogers and Price are clear this year and it should come down to those two. It does make the bronze medal battle more interesting. Zhao has impressed this season whilst the other Americans deserve respect just for making it to Paris. Fantini is probably the other with an outside shot. Wlodarczyk would be a great story but it feels past her current ability.

🥇Camryn Rogers 🇨🇦

🥈DeAnna Price 🇺🇸

🥉Jie Zhao 🇨🇳

Women’s Javelin

The world champion in 2019 and 2022 was Kelsey-Lee Barber (Australia). She could only win bronze at the Tokyo Olympics though. Australia will have a strong team, Kathryn Mitchell (Australia) was the world leader in 2018. Mackenzie Little (Australia) finished third in the 2023 World Championship after her fifth in 2022. The bronze medalist in 2022 was Haruka Kitaguchi (Japan) who improved to take gold in 2023 and had the longest throw in 2023. Behind her, she was pushed by Flor Ruiz (Colombia) who took silver after an incredible personal best. Lu Huihui (China) is a double World Championship bronze medalist who has twice been the longest thrower in the world. Maria Andrejczyk (Poland) went furthest in 2021 and was a silver medalist in Tokyo. Sara Kolak (Croatia) went furthest in 2017 and was the Olympic gold medalist in 2016. Christin Hussong (Germany) had two seasons when she was the second furthest thrower in the world and finished fourth in the 2019 World Championship. Eda Tugsuz (Turkey) came fourth in the Tokyo Olympics. Victoria Hudson (Austria) won the 2024 European Championship after finishing fifth at the 2023 World Championship. Elina Tzengko (Greece) won the 2022 European Championship in a season in which she was the fourth furthest thrower. Adriana Vilagos (Serbia) is a double European silver medalist who has gone fourth furthest this season. Maggie Malone-Hardin (United States) and Nikola Ogrodnikova (Czech Republic) have both featured on season top lists but have not replicated that form in major championships. Annu Rani (India) won at the 2023 Asian Games. Rhema Otabor (Bahamas) is only 21 but has gone over 64m this season.

Kitaguchi has been the dominant athlete this season, winning almost every event she enters, however she was very disappointing in London. I am happy to put that down as one-off and assume she continues her strong form. Ruiz has gone furthest this season but she has lost the shock factor from last season.  Barber and Little remain strong contenders. Hudson and Malone-Hardin have been quite consistently strong this year but are yet to put it together in major competitions.

🥇Haruka Kitaguchi 🇯🇵

🥈Mackenzie Little 🇦🇺

🥉Kelsey-Lee Barber 🇦🇺

Women’s Heptathlon

Nafissatou Thiam (Belgium) is the only woman in the field who has gone over 7000 points. She has had injury concerns over the last few years but is the reigning double Olympic champion and has world titles from 2017 and 2022. In the years that she didn’t win the world title Katarina Johnson-Thompson (Great Britain) took the wins. She is another who has had injury concerns and her Olympic best was sixth in Rio. The young contender for the crown is Anna Hall (United States). Only 23, she nearly broke the 7000-point barrier in Gotzis in 2023. She was the World Championship bronze medalist in 2022 and won silver in 2023 when entering the competition as the favourite. Anouk Vetter (Netherlands) won the medals in the opposite way, taking silver in 2022 and bronze in 2023 to add to her 2017 bronze. She also won the Olympic silver medal in Tokyo where she finished ahead of compatriot Emma Oosterwegel (Netherlands). Noor Vidts (Belgium) was fourth in Tokyo. She has consistently been solid but not enough to win a medal. She won bronze at the 2024 European Championship. The silver medalist was Auriana Lazraq-Khlaas (France). Adrianna Sulek (Poland) won silver at the 2022 European Championship and finished fourth in the 2022 World Championship. Anna Kalin (Switzerland) won bronze at the 2022 European Championship and was runner-up in Gotzis this year. Carolin Schafer (Germany) was a World Championship silver medalist in 2017. Xenia Krizsan (Hungary) was fourth at the 2023 World Championship and has put together some strong scores. Chari Hawkins (United States) and Sophie Weisenberg (Germany) were in the top eight of the 2023 World Championship final.

Thiam should win this event. She is the clear favourite when healthy and perhaps it is a shame that injuries have kept her from putting up some massive scores. Both Hall and Johnson-Thompson are also in the same both in regards to the injuries. I have more faith that Hall is healthy and think that leaves a final podium spot open. I think this comes down to Kalin, Vetter and Vidts however this event can lead to shocks as it takes one bad event to knock someone off the podium.

🥇Nafissatou Thiam 🇧🇪

🥈Anna Hall 🇺🇸

🥉Annik Kalin 🇨🇭

Mixed 4x400m Relay

This is always a tough event to weigh up. As a general rule, the top athletes do not compete. Femke Bol however did compete at the 2023 World Championship. The Netherlands were on their way to setting a world record when she fell over in the final 50m. They were the silver medalists at the 2022 World Championships. Instead, the United States took gold and the world record. They added that to their 2019 gold whilst winning bronze at the Tokyo Olympics and the 2022 World Championships. The Olympic champions are Poland but they still have no World Championship medals. Their best finish was fourth in 2022. It was the Dominican Republic who took the title that year, with Marileidy Paulino the star. They were also the Tokyo Olympic silver medalists. Jamaica won silver at the 2019 World Championship whilst Great Britain won silver in 2023. Ireland was third at the World Relays event earlier in the season having also made the Tokyo Olympic final. As did Belgium, finishing fifth, as they did at the 2023 World Championships. Germany also made that final, finishing seventh. In 2022, Italy and Nigeria were both finalists. Also competing are the Bahamas, Switzerland, Ukraine and Kenya.

The American strength in depth means they are usually consistent here, despite this being a B team. Jamaica usually does the same without having the same strength of depth. Netherlands and Dominican Republic have done well recently with the help of their star so it depends if they can get them to run again. Poland is in between those two sides with decent depth but also possibly a star who will run. Great Britain seems to be stronger in the 400m relays than the individual names would suggest and I think they can be a bit of a dark horse here. I think Bol runs and that gets the Netherlands onto the podium along with the consistent United States team.

🥇United States 🇺🇸

🥈Netherlands 🇳🇱

🥉Great Britain 🇬🇧

Marathon Race Walk Mixed Relay

This is a new event and it makes form quite hard to track. Fortunato/Trapletti (Italy) won this event at the race walking team championships this year, which was the first time this race was run. That was despite probably being considered the lesser Italian pair entering the event. They finished ahead of Ikeda/Okada (Japan) and Martin/Garcia-Cano (Spain). Pintado/Morejon (Ecuador) won at the 2023 Pan-American Games. The Chinese pairings are going to be competitive. Jun/Hong (China) will have both competed in the individual event whilst Xianghong/Shijie (China) is going to enter the event fresh. The second Spanish team is Garcia/Perez (Spain). Other possible contenders include Tingay/Montag (Australia), Chama/Gonzalez (Mexico), Bonfim/De Sena(Brazil), Linke/Feige (Germany) and Campos/Garcia (Peru).

Given how infrequently this event has been run it feels a tough one to predict. I want to give an edge to teams who have been successful in it. I would give the edge to the Japanese team of the World Championship medalists though, they seem overall the strongest. Behind them I think can be the Spanish pair. I will give bronze to a Chinese pair, I think the benefit will be in the team that is fresher.

🥇Koki Ikeda/Kumiko Okada 🇯🇵

🥈Francesco Fortunato/Valentina Trapletti 🇮🇹

🥉He Xianghong/Qieyang Shijie 🇨🇳