Diving 2024 Paris Olympics Preview

Men’s 3m Springboard

Wang Zongyuan (China) will be looking to improve on his Olympic silver from Tokyo. He is the triple reigning world champion and has dominated the World Cup events. However, he will have to defeat the man who beat him in Tokyo. Xie Siyi (China) was also a double world champion before winning silver in 2024. Young Osmar Olvera (Mexico) will be only 20 for the Paris Olympics having caused a few surprises when finishing second in the 2023 World Championship, despite a poor second dive. He proved it to be no fluke when coming third in 2024. Jack Laugher (Great Britain) is another former Olympic medalist. He took silver in 2016 before winning bronze in Tokyo. Twice a World Championship bronze medalist, he is probably past his best. Compatriot Jordan Houlden (Great Britain) was runner up at the 2022 Commonwealth Games and European Championship. Luis Uribe (Colombia) came fourth at the 2022 World Championship, as he did in 2023. Another man with a history of coming fourth is Woo Ha-ram (South Korea) who did so in the 2019 World Championships and the Tokyo Olympics. Andrew Capobianco (United States) also has a fourth-place finish from the 2023 World Championships and came third in the 2023 World Cup Final. Ahead of him was Moritz Wesemann (Germany) who was the 2023 European Games winner. Behind him was Jules Bouyer (France) who finished fifth in the 2024 World Championship. Sho Sakai (Japan) was sixth in the 2022 World Championship.

China have dominated this event in recent times, the last time they did not win a medal was in 1980 and at three of the last four Olympics have had two medalists. The big three seem very hard to remove from the medal positions. They comfortably score over 450 and have the ability to get to 500. Zongyuan did admit to nerves in the preliminary rounds of the 2024 World Championship but he was steady in the final whilst Xie faltered. I think Xie may be able to edge Wang in a really close battle. Olvera would need a perfect round to compete with the Chinese divers and I expect him to come third. Behind him, Jack Laugher looks to be coming back to better form but I’m not sure it’s enough to get him into the medal places here. Wesemann looks like the likeliest challenger ahead of Li and Uribe who seems to always perform to a similar level in these Championships whilst others falter around him.

🥇Xie Siyi 🇨🇳

🥈Wang Zongyuan 🇨🇳

🥉Osmar Olvera 🇲🇽

Men’s 10m Platform

Cassiel Rousseau (Australia) broke the run of 37 world titles in a row for China when winning at the 2023 World Championship. He has only been a full-time diver for six years. He chose not to dive in 2024, to concentrate on the synchronised event. In his absence, Yang Hao (China) took gold in 2024 after winning bronze in the two preceding years. He beat Cao Yuan (China) who was the Tokyo Olympic champion after winning the 3m title at the 2016 Olympics. Behind them in third was Oleksii Sereda (Ukraine) who was second at the 2023 World Cup Final and the 2022 European Champion. Noah Williams (Great Britain) was behind Sereda on both occasions and finished fifth in the 2022 World Championships before coming fourth in 2023. Compatriot Kyle Kothari (Great Britain) was behind him in 2023 but finished ahead in 2024 despite only coming sixth. Rylan Weins (Canada) came fifth. Compatriot Nathan Zsombor-Murray (Canada) is often in the finals but not always at the thick end of the medal hunt. He did come fourth at the 2023 World Cup Final and was second at the 2023 Pan-American Games. Randal Willars (Mexico) beat him that day and also finished fourth in the 2024 World Championship. Rikuto Tamai (Japan) is a former World Championship medalist, winning silver in 2022 and impressed in the 2023 World Cup. He also finished second in the 2024 World Cup Final. Timo Barthel (Germany) was the 2023 European Games winner.

To medal, surely divers will need to score over 500. Yang has been the most consistent in doing that over recent years but also can put up very big numbers. I make him the favourite based on that. Cao has consistently performed incredibly in the biggest events for years but I think he may be vulnerable to some of the other competitors here. Rousseau has clearly competed at the top level and is one of a few men capable of scoring 500 consistently.  Sereda is also capable and potentially more consistent without the upside. Tamai would be the other man that I see as capable of breaking into the top three. Willars, Williams, Weins and Zsombor-Murray will all need a perfect performance as well as some of the expected contenders to underperform.

🥇Yang Hao 🇨🇳

🥈Cassiel Rousseau 🇦🇺

🥉Cao Yuan 🇨🇳

Men’s 3m Synchronised Springboard

Wang Zongyuan has dominated this event for a while. He has won the last three World Championships and the Tokyo Olympics despite having three different partners. The most recent two World Championships have come as part of Wang/Long (China) and they’ll enter as heavy favourites. Jack Laugher has an Olympic gold in this discipline and will compete in a different partnership. Laugher/Harding (Great Britain) won silver in 2022 and 2023 as well as the 2022 European Championship. They were stronger in World Cup events, winning in Berlin, coming second in Montreal and were third in the World Cup Final. The 2023 European Games winners were Kolodiy/Konovalov (Ukraine) and they finished sixth in the 2024 World Championship. Second in both the 2022 European Champions and the 2023 European Games were Marsaglia/Tocci (Italy). They were third in the 2023 World Cup Final and won silver in the 2024 World Championship. The United States has seen a pairing medal at the last three Olympics. This time, Duncan/Downs (United States) will look to keep that record going. They impressed in the 2022 World Cup and came fourth in the 2023 World Championship. They were beaten to the medals by Bouyer/Jandard (France) who came also fifth in the 2022 World Championship. The 2024 World Championship bronze medalists were Abadia/Garcia (Spain) improving on their fifth from 2023. They also came fourth in the 2023 World Cup Final. Celaya/Olvera (Mexico) is a new pairing but they did finish second at the 2024 World Cup Final.

It feels very hard to look past the Chinese, who will put up a comfortably mid 400 score. I want to be with a team who has scored at least 400 in recent years. I expect it to come down to the British, Italian, Mexican and French pairs. France will no doubt be buoyed by home support but they would need to improve their points total by quite a lot to really challenge. I was quite worried about the form of Jack Laugher but the World Cup events have shown the British pair have the ability to perform well. Until then, the Italians seemed to be a lot more consistent with the British pair able to score more. If Celaya and Olvera have developed the consistency then they become a serious threat. I think the form of the Brits in 2024, helps me to predict them to win silver ahead of the consistent Italians.

🥇Wang Zongyuan/Long Daoyi 🇨🇳

🥈Jack Laugher/Anthony Harding 🇬🇧

🥉Lorenzo Marsaglia/Giovanni Tocci 🇮🇹

Men’s 10m Synchronised Platform

China has won medals at every Olympics with this event and only twice not won gold. This time they will be represented by Lian/Yang (China). They have won the last three World Championships and dominated the World Cup events over recent years. One of the times they didn’t win gold was in Tokyo as Tom Daley partnered Matty Lee to gold. He arrived in Paris with a new partnership but Daley/Williams (Great Britain) did win silver in the 2024 World Championship. Boliukh/Hrytsenko (Ukraine) is a new pairing for Tokyo, despite Boliukh pairing up with Sereda to win silver at the 2023 World Championship. The other medal winners in 2023 were Willars/Berlin (Mexico) who are the Pan-American champions and came fourth in 2024. Another pair of former World Championship medalists are Wiens/Zsombor-Murray (Canada) who could only finish fifth this year. Eikermann/Barthel (Germany) have competed in World Championship finals but never came close to medalling. They did finish third in the 2024 World Cup Final though. Neither have Bedggood/Rousseau (Australia) but they showed how dangerous they could be at the 2023 World Cup Final when they finished second. Hunt/Szymczak (France) is the other pairing but they will not be expecting to compete.

The Chinese pair do have the pedigree but I feel this will be the synchronised event where they are run closest. Tom Daley has proven he can beat a Chinese pair in an Olympic whilst Noah Williams is an incredible diver in his own right. I think this is a close-run battle and a poor score from either team will probably be the deciding factor. Behind them, I’d probably only rule out the French from medalling. The Canadians need to round back into top form to really contend and whilst the Australian pairing has some upside, the consistency is off. If the Ukranian team was as per the last World Championships, I would predict them to win a medal here, however the new pairing gives me some uncertainty. Instead, I think it is the Mexican team who can take bronze.

🥇Lian Junjie/Yang Hao 🇨🇳

🥈Tom Daley/Noah Williams 🇬🇧

🥉Kevin Berlin/Randal Willars 🇲🇽

Women’s 3m Springboard

The last three Olympics have seen a Chinese one-two. Chang Yani (China) will enter the competition as the reigning World champion after a second in 2023 and a third in 2022. Chen Yiwen (China) is a double world champion but only came second in 2024. The shock bronze medalist was Kim Su-ji (South Korea). Nur Dhabitah Sabri (Malaysia) was fourth place at the last Olympics. Chiara Pellacani (Italy) won the 2022 European Championship and the 2023 European Games before coming fifth in the 2023 World Championship. Behind her at the 2023 European Games was Emilia Nilsson Garip (Sweden). Maddison Keeney (Australia) came fourth in both the 2023 and 2024 World Championships. She does have a World Championship bronze medal from 2019 but does not have an individual Olympic medal. Sayaka Mikami (Japan) has impressed in the World Cup over recent years including finishing second at the 2023 World Cup Final. Sarah Bacon (United States) has also done well in World Cup events as well as finishing fifth at two of the last three World Championships. Aranza Vazquez (Mexico), Lena Hentschel (Germany) and Grace Reid (Great Britain) have also made major finals but struggle to compete with the best.

Again, it feels difficult to predict against anything other than a Chinese one-two. Out of the two, I think Chen Yiwen is the stronger, more consistent diver. It will be one of the closer battles for gold though. Behind those two, could be another battle. Pellacani, Keeney, Bacon and Mikami can all potentially win medals if diving to the best of their ability. Ware and Mikami would be the two with the highest upside in my opinion whilst Keeney is probably the most consistent. I think Mikami can translate her World Cup form into a major tournament and take gold.

🥇Chen Yiwen 🇨🇳

🥈Chang Yani 🇨🇳

🥉Sayaka Mikami 🇯🇵

Women’s 10m Platform

Again, China has dominated here. They have won gold at every Olympics since 2004 and medalled every year since 1980. It will be a repeat battle from Tokyo. Quan Hongchan (China) beat compatriot Chen Yuxi (China). Hongchan is only 17, whilst Yuxi is 18 but they have dominated the sport in recent years. Hongchan will enter the Olympics as reigning world champion but Yuxi had won the three prior. Melissa Wu (Australia) was the Olympic bronze medalist in Tokyo but has since experienced back injuries with have limited her in individual competition. Caeli McKay (Canada) was the 2023 World Championship bronze medalist and was fourth in the World Cup Final. Beaten her into the medals at the World Cup Final was Andrea Spendolini-Sirieix (Great Britain). She has won a European Championship, and Commonwealth Games and finished third in the 2024 World Championship despite only being 19. Compatriot Lois Toulson (Great Britain) has also been a feature in finals, coming fifth in the 2023 World Cup Final and World Championship before finishing sixth in 2024. Kim Mi-Rae (North Korea) came fourth in the 2024 World Championship with Ingrid Oliveira (Brazil) coming fourth in 2023. Gabriel Agundez (Mexico) finished there in the Olympics and is the 2023 Pan-American Games winner. Matsuri Arai (Japan), Delaney Schnell (United States) and Sarah Jodoin Di Maria (Italy) are other divers who would expect to make the finals and potentially medal on a strong day. Christina Wassen (Germany) was runner-up at the 2023 European Games.

These two have had some classic battles and I expect this to be no different. Cheng has been a more consistent performer on the biggest stages and I think she gets revenge for Tokyo, taking gold. It doesn’t feel like anyone has the ability to break into that tier unless either diver fails to perform to their ability. Spendolini-Sirieix is the most likely to finish third. She seems to have both the higher upside and has developed a consistency as of lately. Other contenders for bronze will be McKay and Mi-Rae. Toulson and Di Maria are both consistent types but it would seemingly take others not performing to get a medal. Instead, I think Spendolini-Sirieix wins bronze by a comfortable margin.

🥇Cheng Yuxi 🇨🇳

🥈Quan Hongchan 🇨🇳

🥉Andrea Spendolini-Siriexi 🇬🇧

Women’s 3m Synchronised Springboard

China has won gold at every edition of this event aside from the first, in 2000. Chang/Chen (China) are the triple reigning world champions and have dominated every event they could win. Mew Jensen/Harper (Great Britain) have won medals at the last two World Championships, silver in 2023 and bronze in 2024. They only came fourth in the 2023 World Cup Final though. However neither of the pairs that finished above them there will compete in Paris. Keeney/Smith (Australia) is an experienced partnership and they have won bronze in 2022 and silver in the 2024 World Championships. They also won the 2024 World Cup Final. Pellacani/Bertocchi (Italy) were third in that final and have Olympic experience, having competed in Tokyo. They have won medals in European tournaments and also won bronze in the 2023 World Championship. Kesar/Pysmenska (Ukraine) came fifth in the 2024 World Championship. They were ahead of Hentschel/Muller (Germany). Hentschel is an Olympic medalist from Tokyo when she paired with Punzel. Bacon/Cook (United States) have impressed as a team over the last two years in World Cup events. They finished third in the 2023 World Cup Final and second in 2024. Gillet/Landi (France) will also compete.

The Chinese pair have barely lost in competition and it feels like it would take a poor performance on their behalf to bring in other contenders. Behind them, the Australians are the pair most consistently capable of scoring 300. I prefer this American team compared to some of the other alternatives. They have shown an ability to compete in the biggest events. Germany is in a similar boat but Hentschel is always capable of performing well. Ukraine and France seem unlikely to really challenge for medals. Great Britain, Italy and United States will be the likeliest to compete for bronze and I think the American pair has consistently been strongest.

🥇Chang Yani/Chen Yiwen 🇨🇳

🥈Maddison Keeney/Anabelle Smith 🇦🇺

🥉Sarah Bacon/Kassidy Cook 🇺🇸

Women’s 10m Synchronised Platform

Another event with clear Chinese dominance as they have won every Olympic gold medal, with Canada winning medals at four out of six editions. Chen/Quan (China) are a young team but they have won three straight world titles and basically every event they have entered. The silver and bronze medalists from the Tokyo Olympics will both return. Parratto/Schnell (United States) won silver and were World Championship bronze medalists in 2023. They also won a World Cup event earlier in the season, in Berlin. Olympic bronze medalists in Tokyo were Oroczo/Agundez (Mexico) and they have finished fourth at the last two World Championships as well as winning the 2023 Pan-American Games. Behind them were Miller/McKay (Canada) who also came second in the 2023 World Cup Final.  Behind them were Spendolini-Sirieix/Toulson (Great Britain). They have won medals at the last two World Championships though, silver in 2023 and bronze in 2024. Silver medalists in 2024 were Mi-Rae/Mi-jo (North Korea) and they were also strong performers in the 2019 World Cup. Bailo/Lyskun (Ukraine) were European silver medalists in 2022 and finished fifth in the 2024 World Championship. Gillet/Hallifax (France) will also compete but are likely to come last.

It’s perhaps the event where the Chinese have the biggest advantage over the field. The North Korean team did impress at the World Championships but it is hard to gather if that is their consistent level or was their best form. Again Ukraine and France can probably be discounted. The British pair have shown they have the beating of the rest of these teams recently but all the North American teams also have shown the capability to score over 300. It comes down to consistency and I think Britain has enough to finish behind a wild-card Korean pair that potentially has as much ability as everyone but the Chinese, only haven’t been able to show it by not competing in competitions.

🥇Chen Yuxi/Quan Hongchan 🇨🇳

🥈Jin mi-jo/Kim Mi-rae 🇰🇵

🥉Andrea Spendolini-Sirieix/Lois Toulson 🇬🇧