France has won gold at three of the last four Olympics. With a home crowd behind them, they enter as one of the favourites. However, they could only win silver at the 2023 World Championship and missed the medals at the 2021 version. Denmark has made the last two Olympic finals, winning in 2016, and are also the reigning three-time world champions. Spain has won bronze medals at the last Olympics as well as the previous two World Championships. They won the European Championships in 2018 and 2020. In 2022, it was Sweden who won the European Championships. They also finished second at the 2021 World Championship before finishing fourth in 2023. Argentina were the Pan-American Games winners in 2023, while Egypt have dominated the African Championships. They finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and have made the last three World Championship quarter-finals. Hungary have made three of the last four World Championship quarter-finals, while Norway have made the last four. In both 2017 and 2019, they progressed further, winning silver. They were bronze medalists at the 2020 European Championship where they beat Slovenia, who were bronze medalists at the 2017 World Championship. Croatia were fourth-place finishers then but did improve to win silver at the 2020 European Championship. Germany placed fourth at both the 2024 European Championship and 2019 World Championship. Japan will also compete, but nothing about their results suggests they can compete.
This feels destined to be a France v Denmark final, as it has been at the last two Olympics. However, they are playing in the same group, meaning they need to finish first and second to avoid each other until the final. Denmark is probably seen as the strongest nation currently but France will have a big home advantage. I edge to Denmark based on their stronger form in recent years in the major tournaments, but would not be overly surprised if France does take gold. Behind them, should be a battle between Sweden, Spain and Norway. Norway will likely be third in Group B, the strong group and come up against either Sweden or Spain. I will edge to Sweden who seem to have impressed in this Olympic cycle.
🥇Denmark 🇩🇰
🥈France 🇫🇷
🥉Sweden 🇸🇪
Women’s Event
Norway are the most consistent medalists, having been on the podium at the last four Olympics and they also hold the most medals in total. They are the double reigning European champions and won the world title in 2021 but only took silver in 2017. They were beaten by France, who lost in the 2021 final but won at the Tokyo Olympics. Denmark has followed in third at the last two World Championships, as well as finishing second at the 2022 European Championships. Behind them in fourth at the 2023 World Championships was Sweden. In 2021, it was Spain, who had won silver in 2019 when they were beaten in the final by the Netherlands. Brazil won the Pan-American Games in 2023 and made the quarter-final at the 2021 World Championship. Germany have made the quarter-finals at the last three World Championships. Hungary were quarter-finalists in Tokyo. Slovenia has qualified for the first time in its history but hasn’t shown a lot to suggest it can be competitive. South Korea and Angola have Ryu Eun-hee and Albertina Kassoma spearheading their teams, but will likely find it hard to qualify for the knockouts.
I think the second group is easier. France should come through quite comfortably ahead of the Netherlands and Spain. In Group A, it is the battle of the Scandinavian teams and winning the group will be a big edge on the run to the final. Norway have beaten Sweden in five of the last six but Denmark has the same record over Norway. Denmark have won four of six against Sweden. Based on that I have to have Denmark winning the group ahead of Norway and Sweden. France and Denmark win their quarter-finals easily. I think Sweden beat the Netherlands and Norway just about edge Spain. Norway actually have a very strong recent record over France and I think the upset comes here. Denmark wins the other semi-final and go on to complete a historic handball double.
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