Road Cycling 2024 Paris Olympics Preview

Men’s Road Race

The best riders usually congregate in France every year for the Tour De France. This will come not long after the 2024 event but likely lend itself to some of the punchier riders who are capable on cobbles. Wout van Aert (Belgium) is one of the favourites for almost any race he lines up in giving his rare mix of climbing and sprinting ability. He is the reigning Olympic and World silver medalist with nine Tour De France stage wins but was injured at the start of the year, with a broken collarbone. The reigning world champion is Mathieu van der Poel (Netherlands). Although, less of a sprinter than van Aert he is similarly well-rounded and his wins at Paris-Roubaix over the last two years show a potential liking for the surface he is likely to encounter. The champion in 2022 was Remco Evenepoel (Belgium) who also won Liege-Bastogne in 2022 and 2023. Jasper Stuyven (Belgium) is another contender from Belgium who finished sixth at the World Championships. With a stacked team, sometimes you see the team strategise well and other times there is conflict within the team. Tadej Pogacar would have been a danger but has pulled out, citing exhaustion. Teammate Matej Mohoric (Slovenia) has also won big one-day races. Julian Alaphilippe (France) is on the downswing of a career that includes two World Championships and six Tour De France stages. In his prime, he would have been a serious contender and maybe the Frenchman can have one last hurrah. Mads Pedersen (Denmark) is also a former World Champion having won that in 2019. He finished fourth in the event in 2023 and is always competitive in the classic events. Tom Pidcock (Great Britain) won the 2024 Amstel Gold race after being runner-up in the 2023 Liege-Bastogne. Dylan van Baarle (Netherlands) is a World Championship silver medalist from 2022 and he’s also won at Paris-Roubaix. Michael Matthews (Australia) and Michael Woods (Canada) have both won World Championship medals. Jhonathon Narvaez (Ecuador) won at the 2023 Pan-American Games. Biniam Girmay (Eritrea) has won four grand tour stages and the green jersey at the cent Tour but he would probably want this slightly flatter. It becomes almost impossible to list every contender given how these races go but other notable names include Rui Costa (Portugal), Matteo Jorgensen (United States) and Mattias Skjelmose (Denmark).

Given when this race takes place, how athletes recover from the Tour De France always plays a part. Van Aert would be a favourite usually but looked short of form in the Tour That leaves me to settle on van der Poel. He did not seem to exert himself too often and as a classic specialist has set his season out around this with no setbacks. I think Pedersen will be a serious contender in a bunch finish and that can end with him getting a medal. Bardet is riding well and can definitely cause trouble in a one-day event as he showed on the opening day of the Tour. My concern is about how he handles the cobbles. Instead, I will go for Van Baarle to take the other medal.

🥇Mathieu van der Poel 🇳🇱

🥈Dylan van Baarle 🇳🇱

🥉Mads Pedersen 🇩🇰

Men’s Time Trial

The time trial will come on a course that will likely suit time trial specialists rather than climbers. Current world champion Remco Evenepoel (Belgium) won on a similar style route to add to his silver and two bronze medals. He won time trials at the Tour De France and Criterium du Dauphine this year. He also beat main rival Filippo Ganna(Italy) by 22 seconds in 20km in the 2023 Giro D’Italia. Ganna also finished second to Evenepoel in the 2023 World Championship adding to his 2020 and 2021 world titles. The shock winner in 2022 was Tobias Foss (Norway) who likes a long time trial. Evenepoel was beaten at the Belgian nationals in 2023 by Wout van Aert (Belgium). He won the silver medal in the 2021 and 2022 World Championships but may need a course with more climbing. Stefan Kung (Switzerland) has done everything but win at the World Championships. He has also won a time trial at the Tour De France and is a twice European champion. He was beaten in 2022 by teammate Stefan Bissegger(Switzerland). Brandon McNulty (United States) came fourth in the 2023 World Championship. In the World Championships, he was beaten by Josh Tarling (Great Britain) who won bronze. The powerful young Brit will only be 20 and had been the junior World champion in 2022. Mikkel Bjerg (Denmark) was another impressive junior, being a multiple-time under-23 world champion. Other potential contenders include Ethan Hayter (Great Britain) who finished fourth at the 2022 World Championship and Nelson Oliveira (Portugal) who came fourth in 2017 but has pretty consistently been in the top ten and this being a limited field could boost his chances.

Again, a key factor could be freshness. Evenepoel has been dominant in this discipline for a while but he had a gruelling Tour De France whilst Ganna and Tarling have probably had a better preparation. Van Aert told earlier in the season that the time trial was his aim and that competing in the Tour would not be the best preparation. His season plan was changed because of injury and I don’t expect him to be competitive. I think this should come down to the three favourites of Evenepoel, Ganna and Tarling. I think Evenepoel will pay for his exertions and instead, Tarling, who described this course as perfect for him, takes gold.

🥇Josh Tarling 🇬🇧

🥈Filippo Ganna 🇮🇹

🥉Remco Evenepoel 🇧🇪

Women’s Road Race

The female course will suit a similar rider, although it is shorter. The Dutch team is always brimming with talent, despite the retirement of Annemiek van Vleuten. Demi Vollering (Netherlands) won the 2023 Tour de France as well as taking silver at the 2023 World Championship. She has also a number of impressive one-day victories. Marianne Vos (Netherlands) is one of the greatest cyclists of all time, winning 32 Giro stages. She is also a three-time World Champion and won the Olympic gold in 2012. Her form has not been at the same level but she can always be competitive in this situation. Lorena Wiebes (Netherlands) will be the best sprinter if it comes down to a bunch sprint as proven when she won the 2022 European Championship. The other traditionally strong squad is the Italian team. Elisa Balsamo (Italy) was the World champion in 2021 and came second in the 2022 European Championship. Elisa Longo Borghini (Italy) will also be strong. She’s the reigning Olympic bronze medalist and won Paris-Roubaix in 2022. Silvia Perisco (Italy) won World Championship bronze in 2022. The bronze in 2023 went to Cecile Ludwig (Denmark). That followed three straight years of finishing in the top ten and improving each time. Winning the gold in 2023 after a successful career on the track was Lotte Kopecky (Belgium).  Prior to her world championship, she came second in 2022 and won in Flanders and Paris-Roubaix in 2024. Liane Lippert (Germany) is another who will likely have all the team support. She took a stage win in the 2023 Tour De France and finished fourth in the 2022 World Championship. Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Poland) struggles to win races but is always a contender. She has a World Championship bronze from 2021 and consistently finishes in the top ten. Elise Chabbey (Switzerland) finished seventh in the 2023 World Championships after launching an early attack that damaged the peloton. Chloe Dygert (United States) also a rider who come from the track and is known for her time-trialling ability. Lizzie Deignan (Great Britain) is a former World Champion and Olympic medalist who has also won Paris-Roubaix but having her second child in 2022 meant that she largely spent 2023 getting back to full fitness. Compatriot Pfeiffer George (Great Britain) is probably the British hope, finishing third in Paris-Roubaix this year. Alison Jackson(Canada) won Paris-Roubaix in 2023 whilst Grace Brown (Australia) won Liège-Bastogne this season. Juliette Labous (France) is the likeliest of the home contingent to compete, often finishing top ten in some of the bigger one-day races and tours.

The medals here likely come from Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. George, Jackson and Ludwig, I think would be the likeliest to join them but am not going to predict it. The majority of the Dutch team have a case for being on the podium whereas Belgium will concentrate on Kopecky. The Italians will likely expect Balsamo and Borghini to be their strongest competitors. I think the medals come down to Balsamo, Kopecky and Vollering. Vollering will be concentrating on this event and I think that points me to her winning over Kopecky who will split her efforts between road and track.

🥇Demi Vollering 🇳🇱

🥈Lotte Kopecky 🇧🇪

🥉Elisa Balsamo 🇮🇹

Women’s Time Trial

Reigning Olympic champion Annemiek van Vlueten and bronze medalist Anne van der Breggen have retired whilst Marlen Reusser misses the Games due to injury.In 2021 and 2022, it was Ellen van Dijk (Netherlands) who took the world title but she missed 2023 after having a baby. The 2023 winner was instead Chloe Dygert (United States), adding to her 2019 crown. Grace Brown (Australia) finished second, adding to her 2022 silver medal and a Commonwealth Games gold but is probably better suited to routes with a climb. Behind her in the Commonwealth Games was Anna Henderson (Great Britain) and she was agonisingly close to a World Championship medal as she finished fourth in Glasgow. Ahead of her was Christina Schweinberger (Austria) taking bronze. Demi Vollering (Netherlands) has never been the first option for the Dutch in the time trial but she did perform best in the 2023 World Championships finishing sixth and finishing second in the time trial during the 2023 Tour De France. Juliette Labous (France) finished fifth in the 2023 World Championship, improving from sixth in 2021. Agnieszka Skalniak-Sojka (Poland) and Mieke Kroger (Germany) have both finished in the top eight over recent World Championships. Elisa Longo Borghini (Italy) has competed in the last two Olympics, finishing fifth in 2016. She also came second earlier in the year behind Vollering in Switzerland.

Van Dijk won a time trial earlier in the year and looks like she is returning to her best. Dygert is probably the main danger at her best but it is hard to work out her form given she has not raced in a time trial this year. Brown has strong form in this discipline over recent years. Elsewhere Henderson feels likeliest to compete. Dygert is clearly capable but given her lack of form, I have to predict against her for gold. Do not be shocked if she does make it though.

🥇Ellen Van Dijk 🇳🇱

🥈Chloe Dygert 🇺🇸

🥉Grace Brown 🇦🇺