Men's Windsurfer - iQFoil
The current world champion is Nicolo Renna (Italy) who improved on his bronze medal in 2023. He was also second in the test event. Nicolas Goyard (France) won that as well as the 2021 World Championship. He was the European champion in 2021 and 2022 as well. Sebastian Kordel (Germany) was third in the test event. He was the 2022 world champion but could only win silver in 2023. Grae Morris (Australia) was fourth place at both the Test Event and the 2023 World Championship. Samuel Sills (Great Britain) has always contended in the big events and his best result came when winning the 2023 World Cup event in Mallorca. Pawel Tarnowski (Poland) is another consistent performer and won silver at the 2024 World Championship. Tom Reuveny (Israel) came fourth at the 2022 World Championship and bronze at the 2023 World Cup in Mallorca. Luuc Van-Opzeeland (Netherlands) has been a consistent World Championship medalist winning the world title in 2023. He also won silver in 2022 and bronze in 2021 and 2024. Mateus Isaac (Brazil) took the 2023 Pan-American Games. Other potential contenders are Ignacio Baltasar(Spain), Joshua Armit (New Zealand) and Noah Lyons (United States).
I think there is a top tier of contenders here which includes Renna, Goyard, Kordel, Morris and Van-Opzeeland. The biggest dangers who could break into that are Sills and Reuveny. I think Goyard deserves to be the favourite at home despite his results recently not showing him at his best. I would then go with the consistency of Van-Opzeeland to take silver. Behind them, I have a slight edge to Renna taking the other medal with his strong recent form.
🥇Nicholas Goyard 🇫🇷
🥈Luuc Van-Opzeeland 🇳🇱
🥉Nicolo Renna 🇮🇹
Mens Kiteboarding
The French have a lot of options with good strength in depth. Axel Mazella will compete as a twice-European Champion. He also has two World Championship silvers and two bronzes, as well as winning the test event in 2023. The current world champion is Maximilian Maeder (Singapore) and despite only being 17 in Paris he’s got a serious chance. He finished second in 2022 and was third in the test event. Toni Vodisek (Slovenia) was the 2022 World Champion before winning silver in 2023. Riccardo Pianosi (Italy) won bronze in the 2021 World Championship and was second in Sofia in 2024. Behind him in third was Denis Taradin (Cyprus). Connor Bainbridge (Great Britain) has a World Championship bronze medal from 2019 and had a good 2023, finishing second in the Test event and in Mallorca. Valentin Bontus (Austria) came fourth in the 2023 World Championship. Bruno Lubo (Brazil) won the Pan-American Games. Jannis Maus (Germany), Martin Dolenc (Croatia) and Qibin Huang (China) are all possible contenders.
It is the first edition of kiteboarding in the Olympics and it feels quite hard to put my finger on the form. The favourites have to come from the first six names mentioned. Maeder is only improving at this age and it feels like this could be an event that he dominates for a while. The battle for the other medals ultimately comes down to Bainbridge, Mazella and Vodisek. Bainbridge hasn’t done well in major championships but his recent form makes it hard for me to leave him out. Some French competitors will fall under the pressure but Mazella has long been consistent and performed well in the test event so I give him the other medal.
🥇Maximilian Maeder 🇸🇬
🥈Axel Mazella 🇫🇷
🥉Connor Bainbridge 🇬🇧
Mens ILCA7
Matthew Wearn (Australia) will be defending his Olympic title as the reigning double-world champion. Prior to his success in 2023, he had been a four-time medalist without winning gold. Australia has won gold at the last three Olympics and Wearn will enter as the favourite. Jean-Baptiste Bernaz (France) was the 2022 world champion. One of the elder statesmen in the regatta, he did win silver at the 2016 World Championship and has twice finished fourth in the last four years. Another former world champion is Phillip Buhl (Germany) who won in 2020. He also finished fifth in Tokyo and fourth at the most recent World Championship. Thomas Saunders (New Zealand) is another world champion, who won in 2021 before finishing fourth in 2022. Australia has won the last three Olympic renewals and Tonci Stipanovic (Croatia) has finished second in the last two. He has two World Championship bronze medals from 2020 and 2021. The bronze medalist in Tokyo was Hermann Tomasgaard (Norway). He also won silver at the 2024 World Championship. Pavlos Kontides (Cyprus) has an Olympic medal from 2012 when he won silver before finishing fourth in Tokyo. He is a double world champion and won silver in 2022 as well as taken the European title in 2022. Behind him was Michael Beckett (Great Britain). He has also taken second in the test event and the 2023 world championship before winning bronze in 2024. He also won in Mallorca in 2022 and 2023. Finn Lynch (Ireland) is a World Championship silver medalist from 2021. Stefano Peschiera (Peru) was the 2023 Pan-American Games winner whilst Ryan Lo (Singapore) won the 2023 Asian Games. Both Kaarle Tapper (Finland) and Jonatan Vadnai(Hungary) have medals from the European Championships. Duko Bos (Netherlands), Joaquin Blanco (Spain), and Lorenzo Brando Chiavarini (Italy) are also potential contenders.
This doesn’t feel like the strongest field. The top two feels like a clash between Beckett and Wearn. If Wearn had not managed to succeed in the big events over recent years, I think I would doubt him a bit more but that has cemented that he can perform on the biggest stages. Behind the top pair will be a competitive race for bronze and a lot will depend if you prefer the experienced names or the younger sailors. I edge to Kontides to roll back the years here but am open to another five or six names potentially winning bronze.
🥇Matthew Wearn 🇦🇺
🥈Michael Beckett 🇬🇧
🥉Pavlos Kontides 🇨🇾
Mens 49er
The favourites will be Lambriex/van de Werken (Netherlands). They are triple world champions and won the test event as well. They can be beaten though, they were only European silver medalists in 2022. Beating them was the team of Botin/Trittel (Spain). They have a 2022 silver and bronzes at the last two World Championships. The Dutch pair were also beaten at the 2024 World Championships by Fischer/Pequin (France) who also won in Mallorca in 2022. Winning silver in 2023 was Schneiter/De Planta (Switzerland) and they also finished third in the test event. McHardie/McKenzie (New Zealand) came fourth at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships and won bronze in the 2023 event in Mallorca. In 2022, that was Barrows/Henken (United States) who finished fourth in the 2021 World Championship and won the 2023 Pan-American Games. Liu/Wen (China) took the Asian Games in 2023. Fantela/Fantela (Croatia) were previous world champions but that was back in 2018. Sime Fantela does have an Olympic gold from 2016 in the 470. They also won World Championship bronze in 2022. As did Bildstein/Hussl (Austria) in 2017. They also finished fourth in 2020. Peters/Sterritt (Great Britain) are also medalists, a silver way back in 2017. Since then their best result was probably a European Championship bronze in 2022. Dickson/Waddilove (Ireland) were second in Allianz in 2022. Connor/Colley (Australia) and Meggendorfer/Spranger (Germany) are also possible contenders.
New Zealand have won medals here at the last three Olympics whilst Germany has won bronze at three of the last four. Despite a few defeats over the last few years, it feels folly to predict against the Dutch taking the win here. Behind them, you can see a battle between France, New Zealand, Spain and Switzerland. The French duo have not been together long but the results have been impressive and at home, it is hard to put them out of the medals. I would go with the Spanish pair to win the other medal as they have been consistently good over the last few years.
🥇Bart Lambriex/Floris van de Werken 🇳🇱
🥈Erwan Fischer/Clement Pequin 🇫🇷
🥉Florian Trittel/Diego Botin 🇪🇸
Women’s Windsurfer - iQFoil
Israel has the most strength in depth of any nation in this class and arguably had the toughest selection decision. They have the last two world champions and three others who have won medals in this Olympic cycle. The selection is Sharon Kantor (Israel), the current world champion and the winner of the test event. Another country with a tough decision is Great Britain with three different World Championship medalists. They picked Emma Wilson (Great Britain) who finished second in 2024 and third in 2023 after finishing fourth in 2022. Helen Noesmoen (France) was the 2021 world champion and a triple European champion. Pilar Lamadrid-Trueba (Spain) has been competitive at world championships, finishing fourth in 2021 and fifth in 2022. Fourth at the 2023 World Championship was Mina Mobekk (Norway) but she also took the 2023 European Championship. In 2024, the fourth-place finisher in the World Championship was Sara Wennekes (Netherlands) and she also won bronze in the Test event. Behind her was Mariana Aguilar (Mexico), the Pan-American Games winner. Marti Maggetti (Italy) is the 2022 World Champion. Maja Dziarnowska (Poland) came third in the 2022 European Championship and also in Mallorca in 2022. Third in Mallorca in 2023 was Veerle Ten Have (New Zealand). Palma Cargo (Croatia) could be competitive but will not expect to medal.
There feels like a possible seven big contenders for the medals. They are led by Kantor and Wilson. Wilson medalled in Tokyo in the RS:X event and that experience makes me edge to edge her over the youthful talent of Kantor. Mobekk is another young competitor and with her improving form I think she can get into the podium positions ahead of Noesmoen and Lamadrid. Wennekes and Maggetti are the other two who could get onto the podium.
🥇Emma Wilson 🇬🇧
🥈Sharon Kantor 🇮🇱
🥉Mina Mobekk 🇳🇴
Women’s Kiteboarding
Again a few nations have questions on which athlete will compete. Great Britain has four athletes who have finished in the top four of the World Championships over the last six years. Ellie Aldridge (Great Britain) is arguably the best having won silvers at the 2021 and 2033 World Championship, with a bronze in 2022. She also finished second in the test event. The winner of the test event and world champion is Lauriane Nolot (France). They also looked to have a tough selection debate until Nolot pulled away to make the spot her own. The clear favourite for the event when it was announced that it would be in the Olympics was Daniela Moroz (United States). The 23-year-old was world champion in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022. She could only come fifth in 2023 though and was third in the test event. Annelous Lammerts (Netherlands) won the 2022 World Cup event in Allianz. She was ahead of Gisela Pulido (Spain) and Gal Zukerman (Israel). Breiana Whitehead (Australia) won the 2024 event in Sofia and is a former World Championship, winning bronze in 2019. Leonie Meyer (Germany) won bronze in Sofia ahead of Maggie Pescetto (Italy). Julia Damasiewicz (Poland) won the 2020 European Championship and Chen Jingyue (China) won the 2023 Asian Games as well as finishing fourth in the 2023 Test event.
This feels like there is a clear distinction between the top three. I am not sure if anyone can break into the podium places but the likeliest to compete are Whitehead and Jingyue. Moroz has been the dominant force in this event for years but has struggled over the last 18 months. That leaves it down to Aldridge and Nolot. Nolot has been so consistently top of the fields that I have to give her the gold ahead of Aldridge.
🥇Lauriane Nolot 🇫🇷
🥈Ellie Aldridge 🇬🇧
🥉Daniela Moroz 🇺🇸
Women’s ILCA6
Anne Marie Rindom (Denmark) is the defending Olympic champion, having won bronze in 2016. She has won world titles in 2019, 2022 and 2024, finishing third in 2018 and 2023. Marit Bouwmeester (Netherlands) has a collection of Olympic medals, with gold in 2016, silver in 2012 and bronze in 2020. Josefin Olson (Sweden) was the bronze medalist in Tokyo but in the World Championships since, her best effort is fourth in 2022. Emma Plasschaert (Belgium) came fourth in the Tokyo Olympics having been world champion in 2018 and 2021. The world champion in 2023 was Maria Erdi (Hungary). Behind her was Maud Jayet (Switzerland) who repeated her silver from 2022. She also has a European silver from 2022. Viktorija Andrulyte (Lithuania) took the silver in 2024 to add to her World Championship bronze that she won in 2021. The bronze medalist in the 2024 European Championship was Louise Cervera (France) ahead of Elena Vorobeva (Croatia). Agata Barwinska (Poland) was a double European champion winning in 2021 and 2022 adding to a 2021 World Championship silver. Line Flem Hest (Norway) won bronze in 2020 and competed in Tokyo. As did Sarah Douglas (Canada) who also won in Mallorca in 2022. She finished ahead of Hannah Snellgrove (Great Britain). In 2023, the runner-up was Zoe Thomson (Australia), the same spot she finished in Sofia in 2024. Charlotte Rose was the World Championship silver medalist in 2024 but instead Erika Reineke (United States), the Pan-American Games winner will compete. Chiara Benini Floriani (Italy) was the bronze medalist in the Test event whilst Monika Mikkola (Finland) has a World Championship fourth on her resume, although that was back in 2018.
This is mainly a battle of names that Olympic fans recognise. The top four from Tokyo could find themselves in those positions again. Two of the likeliest to break into that quartet are Erdi, who has competed at the last two Olympics and Jayet who also competed in Tokyo. The biggest danger of the newcomers is Thomson. Ultimately I think this comes down to Bouwmeester and Rindom for the gold medal with Erdi and Jayet bronze medal contenders. I edge to Bouwmeester taking her second gold whilst Erdi takes bronze. Olson, Plasschaert and Thomson are other contenders.
🥇Marit Bouwmeester 🇳🇱
🥈Anne Marie Rindom 🇩🇰
🥉Maud Jayet 🇭🇺
Women’s 49er FX
Grael/Kunze (Brazil) are the double reigning Olympic champions. They won the Mallorca World Cup event in 2023 and came second in the test event. They have only one World Championship victory from spare but have since won four silvers. The 2023 world champions were Bobeck/Netzler (Sweden) who won silver in 2022 and 2024z They were third in the test event. The winners of the test event were van Aanholt/Duetz (Netherlands). They are also the 2022 world champions when they had a great season that included winning World Cup events in Mallorca and Allianz. In 2023, they could only win silver in the World Championships but they retained their title in 2024. Both have also won the world title with other partners whilst Duetz has an Olympic bronze from Tokyo. Echegoyen/Barcelo (Spain) was fourth in Tokyo. They are the 2020 world champions and won bronze in 2022. Price/Haseldine (Australia) were bronze medal winners in the 2023 World Championship having also finished third in the Allianz World Cup event in 2022. They beat Maenhaut/Geurts (Belgium) into fourth and the Belgian pair also showed their strength when finishing second in the 2022 Allianz World Cup. Current World Championship bronze medal winners are Germani/Bertuzzi (Italy) who were third in 2022 at the Mallorca event. Naess/Roennigen (Norway) were fourth in Mallorca in 2023. The former World Championship silver medalists also came second in 2024 in Sofia. Tanaka/Nagamatsu (Japan) came third in Sofia ahead of Lewin-Lafrance/Lewin-Lafrance (Canada). Roble/Shea (United States) are also former World Championships medalists, winning bronze in 2020. They also came fourth in the Test event. Gronblom/Hokka (Finland) came fourth in the 2021 World Champions, whilst it was Melzacka/Jankowiak (Poland) in 2022. Black/Tidey (Great Britain) came fifth in 2023 and Tidey competed in Tokyo with a different partner finishing sixth. Aleh/Meech (New Zealand) came sixth in 2023 and Aleh has also competed at prior Olympics, winning gold in 2012 and silver in 2016. Shen/Hu (China) won the 2023 Asian Games whilst Bergmann/Wille (Germany) and Schmidt/Schmidt (Denmark) will be hoping to contend.
I would argue this is one of the weaker events at the top end but lots of potential contenders if they perform well in the regatta. The Brazilian pair will be aiming for a three-peat but I feel it is a step too far for them and they will likely settle for a lesser medal. The Dutch pair strike me as the likeliest winners. The other main danger is the Swedish pair and I expect them to medal. The major contenders will be Italy and Australia.
🥇Odile Van Aanholt/Annette Duetz 🇳🇱
🥈Vilma Bobeck/Rebecca Netzler 🇸🇪
🥉Martine Grael/Kahena Kunze 🇧🇷
Mixed Nacra 17
Italian and British pairs have dominated this event. The last time they did not win at the global championships was 2016 when both the Olympics and World Championships went elsewhere. Tita/Banti (Italy) will enter the competition as reigning Olympic and world champions. They also won in 2018 and 2022. Gibson/Burnet (Great Britain) were Olympic silver medalists in Tokyo and have twice been world champions. They came second in 2023, third in the test event and won in Mallorca. Kohlhoff/Stuhlemmer (Germany) were the other Tokyo Olympic medalists, winning bronze. They were also bronze medalists in the 2021 World Championships and finished fourth in the test event. Kurtbay/Keskinen (Finland) split the aforementioned teams by finishing second at the Test event. They also won bronze at the 2022 World Championships and European Championships. Wilkinson/Dawson (New Zealand) finished ahead of them at the 2022 European Championship and were fifth in the Test event. Jarrud/Jonson (Sweden) were the World Championship bronze medalists in 2023. Van der Meer/Bouwer(Netherlands) came in fourth and also won the Allianz World Cup event in 2022. Mourniac/Berthomieu (France) came fourth in the 2021 World Championship and also finished fourth in the Sofia World Cup event in 2024. Majdalani/Bosco (Argentina) are the Pan-American Games winners and Saouma-Pedersen/Borreskov (Denmark) are also possible outsiders.
You will be hard-pushed to find someone who doesn’t expect the Olympic title to return to Italy or go to the British pair. I favour the Italians but by no means are they unbeatable. The Finnish team seem to be in pole position for bronze although there will be competition. I expect the Germans, the Netherlands, New Zealand and the Swedes to be the most competitive.
🥇Ruggero Tita/Caterina Banti 🇮🇹
🥈John Gimson/Anna Burnet 🇬🇧
🥉Sinem Kurtbay/Akseli Keskinen 🇫🇮
Mixed 470
Israel seemed to get a head start on some of their rivals in this discipline, coming first and second in the 2021 World Championship and winning the European Championships, all with different athletes. Competing in Paris will be Lasri/Hasson (Israel) who finished fifth at the 2024 World Championship. The current world champions are Xammar/Brugman (Spain). They were silver medalists in 2022 and 2023. They also won the 2022 World Cup event in Mallorca before finishing third in 2023, the same place they managed for the test event. The test event winners and previous bronze medalists at the 2022 World Championships are Mion/Lecointre (France). The 2023 world champions are Okada/Yoshioka (Japan) who also won the 2023 Mallorca World Cup event and bronze in the 2024 World Championships. The silver medal winners were Heathcote/Grube (Great Britain). Fourth in the 2023 World Championship were Vadlau/Mahr (Austria). Germany has a couple of strong pairs including the 2022 world champions but will be represented by Disch/Markfort (Germany) who came fourth in the 2024 World Championship. Mermod/Siegenthaler (Switzerland) won the World Cup event in Allianz in 2022. Dahlberg/Karlsson (Sweden) and McNay/Dallman-Weiss (United States) are also potential contenders.
This doesn’t feel like the strongest of the rowing events. Jordi Xammar won a bronze in Tokyo with a different partner but I think they are the most likely to win gold. Japan’s best chance of a sailing medal comes in this event and I think they can win silver. Behind them are Germany, whose pairing may feel the pressure of being picked ahead of the 2022 World Champions. Great Britain, France and Israel are also going to hope to be competitive. I will lean to the French pairing at home
🥇Jordi Xammar/Nora Brugman 🇪🇸
🥈Keiju Okada/Miho Yoshioka 🇯🇵
🥉Jeremie Mion/Camille Lecointre 🇫🇷
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