Men’s Shortboard
Brazil currently hold the Olympic title but champion Italo Ferreira won’t be competing. They will still have the favourite in Filipe Toledo (Brazil). He has won the World Surf League the last two years improving from second in 2021. Three of his teammates won events in the 2023 World Surf League but it will be Joao Chianca (Brazil) who finished fourth overall and Gabriel Medina (Brazil) who came sixth. He previously won the tour in 2021, finished fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and won the World Surfing Games in 2024. The Tokyo Olympic silver medalist Kanoa Igarashi (Japan) will compete. He won at the World Surfing Games in 2022. Joan Duru (France) was the winner in 2021 and came fourth in 2024. Compatriot Kauli Vaast (France) finished ahead of him to win bronze whilst the silver was won by Ramis Boukhiam (Morocco). Lucca Messinas (Peru) finished second at the 2023 World Surfing Games behind Alan Cleland (Mexico). He was also an Olympic quarter-finalist in Tokyo and won the Pan-American Games in 2023. John John Florence (United States) is another competitor with proven big competition ability having won the World Surf League in 2017 and is the current leader of the League. Teammate Griffin Colapinto (United States) came third in the 2023 World Surf League after winning two events in 2022 and sits second in the current standings.. Ahead of him, finishing second in 2023, was Ethan Ewing (Australia), after his fourth in 2022. Compatriot Jack Robinson (Australia) won two events in the 2023 Surf League to finish fifth and has taken two events in 2024. He also won two events in 2022 when he finished third. Jordy Smith (South Africa) had a third-place finish in the Surf League but that was back in 2019. Leonardo Fioravanti (Italy) performed consistently well in the 2023 Surf League. Other contenders include Matthew McGillivray (South Africa) and Reo Inaba (Japan).
Whilst Toledo should be the favourite, his Dad admitted that he was not a fan of the big waves in Tahiti which puts me off. The World Surf League event in 2023 was won by Robinson, who is one of the stronger tube riders. Historically though, Medina has performed well here, winning twice and losing in the final four times. Igarashi has rebounded from a poor 2023 with a strong start to 2024 whilst Ewing, Colapinto and Chianca have all shown strong form in the World League. Florence is another who has form in Tahiti but needs to return to his past form. Vaast is a Tahiti specialist and this could see him contend above his usual level. Fioravanti has also shown decent form in Tahiti and also in the Surf League. I would predict Robinson and Medina to reach the final given course form and how they have performed in 2024. Behind them, this will be a battle and I just about edge to Florence to beat out Igarashi
🥇Gabriel Medina 🇧🇷
🥈Jack Robinson 🇦🇺
🥉John John Florence 🇺🇸
Women’s Shortboard
Carissa Moore (United States) is already in the hall of fame and will be looking to add to her Tokyo Olympic title. She is a five-time world champion, only finishing second in the last two editions of the tour. Caroline Marks (United States) was the 2023 winner. Only 22, she finished fourth in Tokyo and has long been considered the next big thing in surfing. The other American Caitlin Simmers (United States) finished fourth in the 2023 World Surf League, winning two events of her own. She has already won three events this year to lead the series. Squeezed in-between the three Americans in the 2023 Surf League was Tyler Wright (Australia) who made five finals in 2023. She is a previous series winner, taking the crown in 2017. Compatriot Molly Picklum (Australia) finished fifth in the Surf League, making three finals but losing in seven quarter-finals. Tatiana Weston-Webb (Brazil) was eighth in 2023 after finishing fourth in 2022 and second in 2021. Brisa Hennessy (Costa Rica) won a Surf League event in 2022 on her way to finish fifth. This season she has reached five semi finals, including finishing runner-up in Tahiti. She was behind Johanne Defay (France) who came third overall after also winning an event in 2022 and she finished fourth in 2021. Teresa Bonvalot (Portugal) won bronze at the 2021 World Surfing Games. Compatriot Yolanda Sequeira (Portugal) was an Olympic quarter-finalist in Tokyo and beat Bonvalot in 2021 to win silver. Nadia Erostrabe (Spain) was unfortunate to miss the podium in 2024, as she finished fourth. At the majority of venues, someone with the record of Vahine Fierro (France) would not be considered a danger but she was born in Tahiti and knows these waves better than anyone. She lost in the 2023 semi-finals before winning the event in 2024. Sanoa Dempfle-Olin (Canada) was runner-up at the 2023 Pan-American Games.
The girls have only competed in Tahiti in the last three seasons. Marks did surf here in 2020 and was described as a natural. She beat Simmers in the 2023 event. In 2022, Hennessy took silver behind Courtney Conlogue who won’t be competing and she repeated that feat in 2024. Picklum is a danger with her fearless attitude. Defay and Fierro are both potential medalists as well whilst Weston-Webb has a good record in Tahiti. Simmers has been best at winning events this season whereas Marks has consistently reached the latter stage of events. I think that Fierro deserves to be favourite in this one venue in the world. It should suit her more than the rest of the competition. Behind her, I think will be Simmers who has been so strong this year. I could see any of Hennessy, Marks, Picklum or Weston-Webb winning bronze but will pick Hennessy given her form at this venue.
🥇Vahine Fierro 🇫🇷
🥈Caitlin Simmers 🇺🇸
🥉Brisa Hennessy 🇨🇷
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