Men’s 50m Freestyle
Since 2008, all of the medals in this event have been won by either the United States, France or Brazil. The United States have several potential swimmers who would contend. Caleb Dressel (United States) took gold at the Tokyo Olympics, is a double world champion and was the fastest man in the world five years in a row. A break in 2023 makes it quite hard to assess his form. As for the second American, Chris Guiliano (United States) gets the nod. He is the seventh fastest man in the world this year. France also has a strong lineup. Florent Manaudou (France) was an Olympic silver medalist in Tokyo and was the third fastest man in the world in 2023. Maxime Grousset (France) came third in the 2022 World Championship and was the sixth fastest man in the world that year.Australia will line up with Cameron McEvoy (Australia). McEvoy was the world champion in 2023 but only came second in 2024. He swam the fastest time of this Olympic cycle and has attributed his success to a non-traditional training path. The 2024 world champion was Vladyslav Bukhov (Ukraine). The other medalist in 2024 was Ben Proud (Great Britain). He added that to his collection of three bronzes and his 2022 World Championship. He has swum the second fastest time this season. Szebasztian Szabo (Hungary) came fourth that year and was the eighth fastest man in the world in 2023. Kristian Golomeev (Greece) is one of the elder statesmen of the field. He was fifth in the Tokyo Olympics but did win bronze in the 2019 World Championship. Stergios-Marios Bilas (Greece) is less heralded than his teammate but is a potential spoilers if things go right. Bjorn Seeliger (Sweden), Gabriel Castano (Mexico) and Joshua Liendo (Canada) have also swum fast times this season. Jordan Crooks (Cayman Islands), Kenzo Simons (Netherlands), Leonardo Deplano (Italy) and Ji Yu-chan (South Korea) are plausible if unlikely candidates to contend.
The 50m is fast and furious, one badly timed stroke can cost you the competition. If I had to predict a final it would be Bukhov, Castano, Dressel, Gkolomeev, Grousset, Manaudou, McEvoy and Proud. McEvoy and Dressel have swum times that no one else in the field has proved capable of. I think that may push McEvoy on and potentially he will go sub-21. Behind him, I think the battle for the other medals comes down to Bukhov, Dressel and Proud. Bukhov is young and potentially improving but Proud has proved himself able to peak for numerous Championships in a year and still consistently swim fast times so I have to edge to him. Dressel is not at his best but I have to give him the respect to have him on the podium.
🥇Cameron McEvoy 🇦🇺
🥈Ben Proud 🇬🇧
🥉Caleb Dressel 🇺🇸
Men’s 100m Freestyle
Australia and United States have both medalled at every Olympics since the 2008 edition. Jack Alexy (United States) won bronze in the 2023 World Championship and was the third fastest that year. Compatriot Chris Guiliano(United States) has gone fourth fastest this year. Australia’s big hope is Kyle Chalmers (Australia) who won Olympic silver in Tokyo. Four times he has been the second fastest man in the world, but he was the 2023 World champion. The 2024 world champion and fastest man in 2023 was Pan Zhanle (China). Only 19, he had finished fourth at the two previous World Championships and started 2024 by setting a world record in this event. Another 19 year old former world champion is David Popovici (Romania). He won that in 2022, when he was the fastest man in the world and has Olympics experience from Tokyo where he finished 7th. Also an Olympic finalist in Tokyo was Maxime Grousset (France) who came fourth. He has since won silver at the 2022 World Championship and bronze in 2023. The 2022 bronze medal winner was Joshua Linedo (Canada). In 2024, it was Nandor Nemeth (Hungary) who has been a consistent factor in major finals over the last few years. He finished behind Alessandro Miressi(Italy) who has been a similar consistent finalist. Fourth in 2024 was Matt Richards (Great Britain) improving on his fifth from 2024 whilst Duncan Scott (Great Britain), who tends to be stronger over further, will also hope to be competitive. Hwang Sun-woo (South Korea) is 21 and finished fifth at the Tokyo Olympics and the most recent World Championship. Wang Haoyu (China) finished ahead of him at the 2023 Asian Games and has showed how strong he can be in relay events.
This is always one of the strongest events in the competition. It also has lots of questions. Pan Zhanle has to be down as favourite but it will be interesting to see how well he holds his form. Popovici does seem to look stronger in 2024. Chalmers on the other hands has not impressed this season but you have to give him some credit in the bank based on his performances over recent years. But if Zhanle does struggle to hold form over the season, it looks like Popovici will be the one to take advantage. Alexy and Grousset will not be far behind though.
🥇Pan Zhanle 🇨🇳
🥈David Popovici 🇷🇴
🥉Kyle Chalmers 🇦🇺
Men’s 200m Freestyle
It was a British one-two at the last Olympics and it could be again. That is despite reigning Olympic champion Tom Dean not competing. Duncan Scott (Great Britain) won silver in Tokyo. He won bronze at the 2019 World Championship and is the fourth fastest man in the world this year. The 2023 world champion is Matt Richards(Great Britain). The 2022 world champion was David Popovici (Romania) before he came fourth in 2023, the same position he came in the Tokyo Olympics. Hwang Sun-woo (South Korea) also made the Olympic final, finishing seventh. Since then he won silver in the 2022 World Championship, bronze in 2023 and gold in 2024 as well as consistently being one of the fastest in the world. He beat Pan Zhanle (China) in the 2023 Asian Games. The 100m specialist is a bit of a wildcard over this distance where he was fourth fastest in 2023. Lee Ho-joon (South Korea) was third in that Asian Games and finished sixth in the 2023 World Championship final. Danas Rapsys (Lithuania) won silver in 2023 but has often failed to reproduce his best including when fastest man in the world in 2018 and 2019. Felix Aubock (Austria) and Lukas Martens (Germany) both probably are better over further although Martens did come fourth in the 2024 World Championship and is the second fastest this season. Luke Hobson(United States) beat him to win bronze after finishing fifth in 2023. Guilherme Costa (Brazil) and Rafael Miroslaw(Germany) both made the 2024 World Championship final.
It is another really strong event and although there is strength in depth, it is hard to predict the medals going anywhere outside the top seven. Popovici looked like he may be entering a period of domination in 2022 but it has not gone that way. Richards was best on 2023 and along with Scott the British team seem to really be pushing eachother on. Zhanle has the potential whilst Rapsys has a consistency that means if any of the big names slip he will be there. Sun-woo will also expect to be competitive given his form. Martens has also show great form this season. I think ultimately the medals go to the consistent performers. Popovici looks so strong this season and I think he finishes ahead of Richards with Sun-woo back in third.
🥇David Popovici 🇷🇴
🥈Matt Richards 🇬🇧
🥉Hwang Sun-woo 🇰🇷
Men’s 400m Freestyle
One of the shocks of Tokyo was Ahmed Hafnaoui winning gold in this event but he will miss the Olympics due to injury. The 2023 World Champion and fastest man in the world in 2023 was Samuel Short (Australia) who will only be 20 entering the Olympics. Compatriot Elijah Winnington (Australia) was the 2022 World champion before finishing second in 2024. He was the world's fastest man in 2021 and 2022 and often likes to get out in front. Kim Woo-min (South Korea) went from the front when winning his 2024 World Championship. He was the Asian Games champion in 2023. Kieran Smith (United States) was an Olympic medalist in Tokyo when he won bronze but hasn’t been in the same form since. Lukas Martens (Germany) has medalled at the last three World Championships and has consistently been one of the fastest men in the world. He also won the European Championship in 2022. The runner-up was Antonio Djakovic (Switzerland) who was at his best in 2022 when fifth fastest man in the world. Felix Aubock (Austria) was fifth fastest in 2021 when finishing fourth in the Tokyo Olympics and at the 2022 World Championship. He has finished eighth in the last two editions. Guilherme Costa (Brazil) has finished fourth at the last two events and was the bronze medalist in 2022. Lucas Henveaux (Belgium) finished behind Costa in fifth in 2024. Oliver Klemet (Germany) is the fifth-fastest man in the world this year. Danas Rapsys (Lithuania) is probably at his best over shorter but did come fourth in the 2019 World Championship. Daniel Wiffen (Ireland) and Mykhailo Romanchuk (Ukraine) are both stronger over further.
It will be another interesting battle just to make the final. Short has been so consistently strong and also has major championship experience. I would have potentially predicted Hafnaoui to medal given his ability in big finals over recent years but the injury means he won’t be competing. Instead, his biggest contender will be Martens who has gone incredibly fast this year. Behind them I expect the battle to be between Costa, Klemet, Winnington and Woo-min. I just about edge to Winnington but would not be surprised if he goes too fast early and misses out.
🥇Lukas Martens 🇩🇪
🥈Samuel Short 🇦🇺
🥉Elijah Winnington 🇦🇺
Men’s 800m Freestyle
Robert Finke (United States) is the current Olympic champion known for his fast finishes. He was also the 2022 World Champion but could only finish third in 2023. In 2024, Daniel Wiffen (Ireland) became world champion after coming fourth in 2023. The silver medalist in 2023 was Samuel Short (Australia) when he was the second fastest man in the world. Compatriot Elijah Winnington (Australia) has been the second fastest this season. Gregorio Paltrinieri (Italy) is a former world champion who came second in the Tokyo Olympics. He has since finished third and fourth at the World Championships. The other Olympic medalist in Tokyo was Mykhailo Romanchuk (Ukraine) who won bronze. His form has gone backwards since despite a bronze in the 2022 World Championship. Another World Championship silver medalist was Henrik Christiansen (Norway) who came second in 2019 but hasn’t been in the same form since. David Aubry (France) was the bronze medal winner in 2019 whilst Sven Schwarz(Germany) came fourth in 2024. Felix Aubock (Austria) has been a consistent finalist without really challenging for medals in this event. Guilherme Costa (Brazil) has also made numerous finals and won the Pan-American Games in 2023 but tends to struggle against the best. Kim Woo-min (South Korea) won the Asian Games in 2023 ahead ofFei Liwei (China). Luca De Tulio (Italy) and Victor Johansson (Sweden) both reached the 2024 World Championship final.
Lots of names will be given a chance here but I think it will be a lot of overlap from the last Olympics. Out of the 8 finalists from Tokyo, at least four should return. The two new finalists who will surely be there are Short and Wiffen. The repeat finalists with the biggest chance of succeeding are Finke, Paltrinieri and Wellbrock. I do favour Finke with his big race pedigree and ability to swim fast times. I think he enters as a marginal favourite. Behind him, all of the probable new finalists have shown the ability to be in medal contention. Again, it is a shame that Hafnaoui misses out. I think Short and Wiffen follow Finke home.
🥇Robert Finke 🇺🇸
🥈Samuel Short 🇦🇺
🥉Daniel Wiffen 🇮🇪
Men’s 1500m Freestyle
Robert Finke (United States) will be looking to repeat as Olympic champion and remain the dominant distance swimmer. He has since won two World Championship silver medals. In 2022 it was Gregorio Paltrinieri (Italy) who beat him to gold with a swim going from the front. He is also the only other man in the field with an Olympic gold, having won in 2016. He did only come fourth in the Tokyo Olympics. He was behind Florian Wellbrock (Germany) who took the bronze. He would have perhaps been disappointed as entered the Olympics as world champion and fastest man for three of the preceding four years. He has since won a bronze and silver at the World Championships to complete his medal set in this event. Compatriot Sven Schwarz (Germany) is also a danger and finished sixth in the 2024 World Championship final. The impressive winner in 2024 was Daniel Wiffen (Ireland) improving from his fourth in 2023. He was beaten in the 2022 Commonwealth Games by Samuel Short (Australia) who also finished ahead of him in the 2023 World Championship to win bronze. Someone who may point to Hafnaoui’s success in Tokyo as a reason why he can compete is Kuzey Tunceli (Turkey). He was a dominant junior and finished eighth in the 2024 World Championship but has already swum the third fastest time this season. David Aubry (France) won bronze in the 2024 Championships finally improving on his fourth in 2019. Fourth in 2024 was David Bethlehem(Hungary). Mykhailo Romanchuk (Ukraine) has an Olympic medal from Tokyo where he finished second. He has also won two World Championship silvers and for four years was the second fastest man in the world. He is probably past his best, along with Henrik Christiansen (Norway) who last enjoyed success in the event before Tokyo. Daniel Jervis (Great Britain) is a quite a consistent major championship finalist without ever winning medals. Fei Liwei(China) won the 2023 Asian Games. Damien Joly (France) has also made a World Championship final in recent years.
Another intriguing distance event. Finke, Paltrinieri and Wellbrock represent the old guard who dominated the last Olympics. The new guard of Short, Tunceli and Wiffen will be expecting to medal with Tunceli improving quickly. I think without Hafnaoui, Wiffen will probably take gold. He is consistently posting fast times. Behind him, I expect Finke to be the one chasing him, but too far behind with 100m to go to catch Wiffen. In bronze, I edge to the consistency of Wellbrock over the improving Tunceli.
🥇Daniel Wiffen 🇮🇪
🥈Robert Finke 🇺🇸
🥉Florian Wellbrock 🇩🇪
Men’s 100m Backstroke
This is a United States dominated event. The last time they did not medal, excluding the boycotted Olympics, was in 1932. Since then they have won 30 of the 54 medals available in this event. Ryan Murphy (United States) was one of those medalists, he won bronze in Tokyo behind a Russian one-two after taking gold in 2016. He won his first world championship in this event in 2023 after coming second in 2022 and often being one of the fastest men around. Compatriot Hunter Armstrong (United States) was the world champion in 2024 and is known for his consistency. In the two Championships before that, he won bronze. The 2022 world champion and world record holder is Thomas Ceccon (Italy). He was fourth at the Tokyo Olympics and won silver at the 2023 World Championship. Another former world champion is Xu Jiayu (China) who won that title in 2017 and 2019. He does have an Olympic silver from 2016 but only finished fifth in Tokyo. He came fourth in the 2023 World Championship and was the third fastest that year. Hugo Gonzalez (Spain) is stronger over further but took advantage of a weakened field to win silver at the 2024 World Championships. Behind him in third, beating out his teammate was Apostolos Christou (Greece). He had come fifth in 2022 and was runner-up in the 2022 European Championship. He finished ahead of Yohann Ndoye Brouard (France). The Frenchman came fourth in the 2022 World Championship and fifth in 2023. Pieter Coetzee(South Africa) came fifth in 2024 after winning the Commonwealth Games. Ksawery Masiuk (Poland) was an impressive junior and finished sixth in the 2022 and 2023 World Championships. Hubert Kos (Hungary), Miroslav Knedla (Czechia) and Roman Mityukov(Switzerland) have all made World Championship finals recently and would probably consider a repeat here to be a success. Oliver Morgan (Great Britain) set a national record earlier in the year but will need to go faster to be on the podium.
This feels a bit more closed in terms of top contenders. Armstrong, Ceccon, Christou, Jiayu and Murphy feel like a pretty hard group to break into. The likeliest contenders to do so are Brouard buoyed by a home crowd or an improving Masiuk, who can be forgiven a poor 2024 World Championship given the scheduling. I don’t feel like I can predict any of them to quite break in, so instead it becomes the battle at the top. I think it comes down to Ceccon and Murphy for first. Murphy has just been so historically consistent and I think he gets the gold here. Behind them, I think Jiayu will be my pick but I think Christou and the consistent Armstrong can definitely challenge.
🥇Ryan Murphy 🇺🇸
🥈Thomas Ceccon 🇮🇹
🥉Xu Jiayu 🇨🇳
Men’s 200m Backstroke
Again, the United States dominated the backstroke historically, however, it does not go back so long, only since 1996. In those Olympics, they have won eleven of the 21 medals available. It is Ryan Murphy (United States) who won silver in Tokyo and gold in the 2016 Olympics. He also won the 2022 World Championship, before taking silver in 2023. Jacskon Jones (United States) also made his way through at the trials and is the third fastest man of 2024. The current world champion is Hugo Gonzalez (Spain) who improved on a seventh in 2023. Hubert Kos (Hungary) took the gold in 2023 when he was the fastest man in the world and he will only be 21 for the Olympics. Compatriot Adam Telegdy (Hungary) was fifth in the Tokyo Olympics. Roman Mityukov (Switzerland) won bronze in 2023 before improving to silver in 2024. The bronze medal man in 2024 was Pieter Coetzee (South Africa). He also won bronze at the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Ahead of him in second was Bradley Woodward (Australia) who came sixth in the 2023 World Championship. Luke Greenbank (Great Britain) won bronze at the Tokyo Olympics and has won every World Championship medal aside from gold in this event.The reigning Asian champion is Xu Jiayu (China). He was the fastest man in the world in 2020 and fourth fastest in 2023. The 2022 European champion was Yohann Ndoye-Brouard (France) and he was fourth fastest in 2022. Compatriot Mewan Tomac (France) was fourth in the 2023 World Championship, improving on his fifth in 2022. Apostolos Siskos (Greece) and Oleksandr Zheltyakov (Ukraine) are the sixth and fourth fastest men in the world this year respectively.
This is probably the stronger of the backstroke events. France could have two finalists and then with the home support anything could happen. Kos was a standout, especially when winning his 2023 world title, but you can at this point question whether he can consistently swim those times. Murphy feels like the consistent performer. Mityukov and Gonzlaez will probably be their closest rivals. Greenbank has been consistent for years but his 2024 form is a worry whilst Jones needs to prove it in a major championship.
🥇Hubert Kos 🇭🇺
🥈Ryan Murphy 🇺🇸
🥉Hugo Gonzalez 🇪🇸
Men’s 100m Breaststroke
This event is about Adam Peaty (Great Britain) and his battle against the history books. Aside from Michael Phelps, no other male swimmer has won three consecutive golds in an Olympic event. He has dominated this event and the majority of the fastest times ever are his, but he could only win bronze in the 2024 World Championship. The second fastest ever is Qin Haiyang (China) who dominated 2023 winning the Asian Games and the World Championship. The silver medalist in 2019 was James Wilby (Great Britain) and he finished fourth in 2022. The winner that year, taking advantage of Peaty's absence was Nicolo Martinenghi (Italy). The Italian has come second at the last two World Championships and also won bronze at the Tokyo Olympics. Runner-up in Tokyo was Arno Kamminga (Netherlands). He also came second in the 2022 and 2023 World Championships. In 2024, he only came fifth as Nic Fink (United States) won gold, improving on his second in 2023 and third in 2022. Ilya Shymanovich (Belarus) is historically a stronger short-course swimmer but he was the second-fastest man in 2019 and third-fastest in 2023. Samuel Williamson (Australia) was the fourth-place finisher at the 2024 World Championship and does have a medal from the 2022 Commonwealth Games. Caspar Corbeau (Netherlands) and Lucas Matzerath (Germany) have both made world championship finals in recent years. Evgenii Somov (Russia) has swum the fourth fastest time this year. Jiajun Sun (China) is the less heralded teammate of Haiyang but has gone fifth fastest this season.
Adam Peaty has felt inevitable for years in this event and at the start of the year, I would have made Haiyang favourite. Peaty has looked good though and based on that I think he can take another gold medal here. Haiyang has gone over half a second faster than anyone else in this Olympic cycle with remarkable consistency and I hope this can be one of the battles of the Olympics. Other familiar faces will be battling for the medals in Fink, Kamminga and Martinenghi. Out of the three I trust Martinenghi the most and think he can finish behind Peaty to take bronze.
🥇Adam Peaty 🇬🇧
🥈Qin Haiyang 🇨🇳
🥉Nicolo Martinenghi 🇮🇹
Men’s 200m Breaststroke
The last twelve Olympic medals in this event have been won by men from eleven different countries. Zac Stubblety-Cook (Australia) will be hoping that is not a bad omen as he looks to repeat as Olympic champion. He was the 2022 world champion but could only finish second in 2023 behind Qin Haiyang (China) who also took his world record. With both men absent, Haiyang’s compatriot Dong Zhihao (China) won the 2024 World Championship, after finishing fourth in 2023. He beat Caspar Corbeau (Netherlands) into silver. The Dutchman improved on fifth in 2023 and seventh in 2022. Compatriot Arno Kamminga (Netherlands) was the fastest man in the world in 2020 and won a silver medal at the Tokyo Olympics. The bronze medalist was Matti Mattson (Finland) and since then he has tended to be in the world finals. Another former world record holder will compete in the event. Ippei Watanabe (Japan) broke that record in the 2016 Olympics but his only global medals were bronzes in the 2017 and 2019 World Championships. He is the second fastest man this season, whilst his compatriot is the third. Compatriot Yu Hanaguruma (Japan) was a silver medalist in the 2022 World Championship. He finished ahead of Erik Persson (Sweden) who took bronze. In 2023, that was Matt Fallon (United States) and he swam the fourth fastest time in 2022 and has gone fastest this season. A more intriguing competitor, if he decides to compete is Leon Marchand (France). The medley specialist had the third fastest time of 2023.
Arguably one of the weaker events in terms of the strength in depth. However, the battle for medals remains intriguing. Haiyang doesn’t feel as dominant as in the 100m but I do think he can take gold ahead of Stubblety-Cook. My one worry is the slow times swum at the Chinese trials. Behind them, it will likely be Zhihao and Fallon battling Watanabe and the Dutch swimmers. I find it hard to work out Marchand's ability in this event at a major championship and given he may skip it, will leave him out of the medal picture. Watanabe has never shown an ability to translate even his best times to the big finals but has been incredibly consistent this season. Instead, I think Fallon can take the bronze.
🥇Qin Haiyang 🇨🇳
🥈Zac Stubblety-Cook 🇦🇺
🥉Matt Fallon 🇺🇸
Men’s 100m Butterfly
The last Olympics the United States did not have a medalist was 2000 and this was one of the events of Tokyo. Caleb Dressel (United States) entered as the reigning double world champion and set an Olympic record in every round, setting a world record in the final. Behind him was Kristof Milak (Hungary) who has been the second-fastest man four times. He went on to win the 2022 World Championship. He chose to miss the 2023 Championships and Maxime Grousset (France) took the title. In 2024, it was Diogo Ribeiro (Portugal) who will only be 19 at the Olympics. The bronze medalist at the Tokyo Olympics was Noe Ponti (Switzerland) and he has been to world finals since without really challenging for medals. Another former Olympic medalist in this event is Chad Le Clos (South Africa) who won silver in 2012 and 2016. His last global medal was a bronze in the 2019 World Championship. Also competing at the Tokyo Olympics were Jakub Majerski (Poland) and Matthew Temple (Australia) who tied for fifth. Temple has looked stronger since, despite no medals, he swam the third fastest in 2021 and second fastest in 2023. Majerski does have a medal, he won bronze in the 2024 World Championship. Ahead of him winning silver was Simon Bucher (Austria). The silver medalist in 2023 was Joshua Liendo (Canada) who improved on his bronze in 2022. The silver medalist in 2022 was Naoki Mizunuma (Japan) and he was the fourth fastest man that year. Josif Miladinov (Bulgaria), Katsuhiro Matsumoto (Japan), Nyls Korstanje (Netherlands) and Mario Molla (Spain) have all made global finals in recent years.
This has the potential to be one of the showcase races. So many of these men have won medals in global tournaments. All three Olympic medalists from Tokyo return and Dressel and Milak returning to form is an exciting proposition. The fastest swims of the year have actually come from Liendo and Ponti. Grousset has looked like being a big danger whilst Temple and Ribeiro will all hope to compete. I think Grousset can be inspired by his home fans to a quick time and end up on the podium. I prefer Milak over the further distance. I think if Dressel gets a gold, this is the likeliest with Liendo taking the other podium spot.
🥇Caleb Dressel 🇺🇸
🥈Maxime Grousset 🇫🇷
🥉Joshua Liendo 🇨🇦
Men’s 200m Butterfly
The last time Japan did not win a medal in this event was at the 2000 Olympics. Tomoru Honda (Japan) was the silver medalist in Tokyo. Since then he won bronze at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships before winning gold in 2024. He lost out on gold in Tokyo to Kristof Milak (Hungary). He dominated this event for a while, winning World Championships in 2019 and 2022. His absence opened up a gap that Leon Marchand (France) took advantage of to win gold in 2023 after taking silver in 2022. Genki Terakado (Japan) is the third fastest this season. Richard Marton (Hungary) followed home his illustrious compatriot at the 2022 European Championships and has since made two world finals. He was ahead of Alberto Razzetti (Italy) who took bronze and has since won world Championship silver in 2024. Compatriot Giacomo Carini (Italy) is the fifth fastest man this season. Martin Espernberger (Austria) took a surprising bronze ahead of Krzysztof Chmielewski (Poland) who was the silver medalist in 2024. Ilya Kharun (Canada) came fourth in 2023 but he did swim several strong times in 2023 including setting a national. He tied in fourth with Thomas Heilman (United States) when went slightly faster than Kharun. Noe Ponti (Switzerland) was the fourth-place finisher in 2022. Kuan-Hung Wang (Taiwan), Lewis Clareburt (New Zealand) and Kregor Zirk (Estonia) have all made world championship finals in recent years.
This is a poorer field in terms of depth but it doesn’t make the medal battle any less intriguing. It should come down to Honda, Marchand and Milik. Chmielewski and Heilman are the likeliest to break into those medal positions. Honda has only gone under 1.53 once, and it’s a time that Milak has proved he is more than capable of whilst I also think Marchand has that quality.
🥇Kristof Milik 🇭🇺
🥈Leon Marchand 🇫🇷
🥉Tomoru Honda 🇯🇵
Men’s 200m Individual Medley
This will be one of the events where the home nation expects a gold medal in the pool. Leon Marchand (France) is a double world champion, winning in 2022 and 2023. His main competition probably comes from reigning Olympic champion Wang Shun (China). He only has a World Championship bronze from 2017 but has the fastest man in the world in 2021 and 2023.The United States has historically had a strong team here. Carson Foster (United States) has had the results winning silver in the 2022 and 2024 World Championships but Shaine Casas (United States) has been faster, being the second-fastest man in 2022. He came fourth in 2023 and fifth in 2024 though. That 2024 world title was taken by Finlay Knox (Canada) who also won the 2023 Pan-American Games. The other medalist in 2024 was Alberto Razzetti (Italy) who took bronze. Tom Dean (Great Britain) was the bronze medalist at the 2023 World Championship. Compatriot Duncan Scott (Great Britain) finished ahead of him to take silver, as he did at the Tokyo Olympics. Daiya Seto (Japan) also competed in Tokyo but could only finish fourth. He was the 2019 world champion and in 2022 won bronze but in 2024 could only come fourth. Hugo Gonzalez (Spain) specialises in the backstroke but has made aWorld Championship final in recent years.
This will be another exciting final. Marchand will have the home expectation on him whilst Shun has shown he can do it in the biggest events. Dean, Foster and Scott are proven medalists at the world level whilst Casas has the potential. Haiyang and Gonzalez are stroke specialists but can they put together a perfect medley run to be competitive. I think this comes down to Marchand and Shun for gold and the French crowd gives him the extra boost necessary to win gold. Behind them, I think Scott is the most consistent performer and should take bronze although Casas may have the potential to beat anyone.
🥇Leon Marchand 🇫🇷
🥈Wang Shun 🇨🇳
🥉Duncan Scott 🇬🇧
Men’s 400m Individual Medley
Leon Marchand (France) will think he can do the medley double and will see this as the event he is likelier to win. He was the World Champion in 2022 and 2023 after finishing sixth at the Tokyo Olympics. The United States has won a medal in this event at every Olympics since 1984. Chase Kalisz (United States) won gold in Tokyo after winning silver in 2016. He is also a former World Champion and finished third in 2022 but only fourth in 2023. Compatriot Carson Foster (United States) won bronze medals in 2022 and 2023 but only finished fourth in 2024. The world champion in 2024 was Lewis Clareburt (New Zealand). He had won bronze in 2019 and came fourth in 2022. He competed in Tokyo where he finished seventh. As did Alberto Razzetti (Italy) who came eight. Since then he didn’t win the European Championship in 2022. Compatriot Daiya Seto (Japan) has a long list of medals including bronze at the 2016 Olympics. He was world champion in 2019 and a triple bronze medal winner including the last two events. Brendan Smith (Australia) won bronze in the Tokyo Olympics. He finished second in the 2022 Commonwealth Games behind Clareburt. Max Litchfield (Great Britain) has a realistic medal chance. He came fourth at the last Olympics and won silver at the most recent World Championships. Lorne Wigginton (Canada) made the 2024 World Championship final whilst Balasz Hollo (Hungary) has come eighth in the last three editions.
It will be one of the shocks of the pool if Marchand doesn’t take gold here. This is his event to lose and if he arrives anywhere near top form you have to fancy him. Behind him, you have the old guard led by Kalisz, Seto and Litchfield who have won medals at recent Olympics coming up against Foster and Clareburt. Seto’s best times recently have come in national competitions and I wonder if he can put up a strong enough time to medal. I think Foster and Clareburt are the two to medal with Kalisz and Litchfield just missing out on a third straight medal.
🥇Leon Marchand 🇫🇷
🥈Carson Foster 🇺🇸
🥉Lewis Clareburt 🇳🇿
Men’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay
United States have an incredible record in this event, they have medalled on every occasion. They enter as reigning Olympic champions but have only finished third at the last two World Championships. The three before that they won gold. In 2023, Australia capitalised on winning gold after winning silver in 2022 and bronze in 2019. In 2024, China took gold as Pan Zhanle set a World Record on the first leg. They also won the 2023 Asian Games and came fourth at the 2023 Championships. Italy was the other 2023 medalist, winning silver. They also won silver in 2023 and bronze in 2022 after an Olympic bronze in Tokyo. They finished first in the 2022 European Championship with Hungary winning silver. They have finished at the Olympics and the last two World Championships. Behind them was Great Britain winning bronze. They have finished fourth at the 2022 and 2024 World Championships. France, Spain and Greece will also hope to be competitive.
This should not be the toughest as the number of realistic medal contenders does not go past six. An inspired France could outperform all form boosted by the home crowd but it seems unlikely. United States, as always have real strength in depth. Great Britain has a strong team in theory but with a lot of non-specialists so can you rely on them all to perform well. Italy have several consistent performers and Miressi who can compete with the best teams. Australia and China both have a star who will hope his team can provide enough consistency behind him to compete. Hungary are another unit, that especially looks strong if Milak can swim somewhere near his best. I want to edge to the consistent performers of the United States but would not be surprised if a superstar can swim sub 47 to pinch gold from them. I think Australia are the main contender and will finish in silver whilst Italy just about edge China.
🥇United States 🇺🇸
🥈Australia 🇦🇺
🥉Italy 🇮🇹
Men’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay
Great Britain arguably have three of the top swimmers in this event and will be looking to retain their Olympic title. They are also world champions in 2017 and 2023, winning bronze in 2022. United States took advantage of their slip to win the 2022 world title. They won silver in 2023 and bronze in 2017, 2019 and 2024. Australia won bronze at the Tokyo Olympics and were world champions in 2019. They won silver in 2022 and bronze in 2023. France could only finish fourth in 2023 but are a consistently strong side who could be inspired by the home crowd. China enter the competition as world champions but aside from that have not been competitive in global tournaments. At the 2023 Asian Games they were beaten by South Korea who won silver at the 2024 World Championship. Brazil were the Pan-American Games winners in 2023 but also came fourth on a global stage at the 2022 World Championship. Hungary finished fifth in 2022 and were European champions. Italy finished behind them and have been competitive in world championship finals without winning medals.
Great Britain have the swimmers to take them to gold here. They have three men who could medal individually and that has the potential to take them under seven minutes and possibly to a world record time. United States arguably wouldn’t have anyone who would expect to beat the top three in the British team but they are consistently a strong unit that can swim a time around seven minutes. Australia have a number of big names but none of them specialise in this event. China will be led by Zhanle and how fast he swims. South Korea are actually one of the stronger teams with three swimmers capable of swimming really fast and if a fourth Korean can go under 1.48 they should win a medal.
🥇Great Britain 🇬🇧
🥈United States 🇺🇸
🥉South Korea 🇰🇷
Men’s 4x100m Medley Relay
The United States has dominated this event, winning it at every Olympics they have competed in. They have also won the last two World Championships after finishing second at the two prior. Italy beat them in 2022. They were Olympic bronze medalists in Tokyo and won bronze in 2024. Great Britain was the other team to win a world title, in 2019 and took the Tokyo Olympic silver. China swam the fastest time in 2023 as they won the Asian Games but only came second in the World Championship. It was Australia who took bronze improving on fourth in 2022. Francecame fourth in 2023 after finishing fifth in 2022. It was Canada in fourth in 2024 whilst a surprisingly strong swim from the Netherlands won them the silver medal. Japan have been stronger but are consistently in global finals.
The reason the United States tend to win this event is they have no weak swimmers and tend to also have medal winners in each stroke. Again there are no weak swimmers but that may not be enough. China will have two swimmers who will expect to be strongest on their stroke and arguably the best short-distance medley swimmer in their team. I think they can power China to a historic gold. Behind them, Italy, Great Britain and France will all have really strong teams, with Australia perhaps not at their strongest. Britain has mainly relied on Peaty to put them in a strong position and without him being quite at that level I think it comes down to the other two. At home, I give the edge to France over an Italian squad that I actually prefer.
🥇China 🇨🇳
🥈United States 🇺🇸
🥉France 🇫🇷
Mens Open Water Swimming
One of the more discussed competitions in the lead-up to the Games as swimmers will swim in the Seine. Germany has been one of the stronger nations in this event over the last few years and has a strong hand here. Florian Wellbrock (Germany) is the reigning Olympic champion. He has won at two of the last four World Championships and won bronze in another. Teammate Oliver Klemet (Germany) also has a bronze from 2023. In between them in 2023 was Kristof Rasovszky (Hungary) adding to his Olympic silver from Tokyo. He went on to win the 2024 World Championship after a strong World Cup year in 2022. Compatriot David Bethlehem (Hungary) had three top-five finishes in the 2023 World Cup. The other medalist at the Tokyo Olympics was Gregorio Paltrinieri (Italy) winning bronze. He was the 2022 World champion and took three of the World Cup events that year. Compatriot Domenico Acerenza (Italy) won silver behind him. He became European champion in 2022 and was fourth in the 2023 World Championship. Logan Fontaine (France) was fourth in 2024. His compatriot Marc-Antoine Olivier (France) probably has the better chance. He won silver in the 2019 and 2024 World Championships. He could only finish sixth at the Tokyo Olympics. Athanasios Kynigakis (Greece) was in fifth and finished sixth in the 2023 World Championship. Nicholas Sloman (Australia) has consistently been in the top eight of global events since the last Olympics but hasn’t managed to win a medal yet. Hector Pardoe (Great Britain) managed to win a medal at the 2024 World Championship when taking bronze. Matan Roditi (Israel) was fourth-place finisher at the last Olympics and will be looking to go one better. Competitors who will also swim in the pool include Daniel Wiffen (Ireland), Felix Aubock (Austria), Guilherme Costa (Brazil) and Kuzey Tuncelli (Turkey).
It will mainly remain the old guard, a lot of whom dominated the last Olympics. Sloman and Pardoe are perhaps the two most likely to break into those figures. Wellbrock is a favourite for good reason but Rasovszky, Paltrinieri, Olivier, Fontaine and Acerenza are all possible contenders. So much can come down to luck or who feels good on the day. I think the medals are won by two of the three from Tokyo whilst Olivier can break into the podium places.
🥇Gregorio Paltrinieri 🇮🇹
🥈Marc-Antoine Olivier 🇫🇷
🥉Florian Wellbrock 🇩🇪
Women’s 50m Freestyle
This should be the crowning of Sarah Sjostrom (Sweden). She has won five of the last seven major championships but only won silver in Tokyo. Another former Olympic medalist competing is Simone Manuel (United States). As well as winning silver in 2016, she was the 2019 world champion. Compatriot Gretchen Walsh (United States) has gone fifth fastest this season. Shayna Jack (Australia) won World Championship silver in 2023 but only came fourth in 2024. Compatriot Meg Harris (Australia) was the bronze medal winner at the 2022 World Championship and beat Emma McKeon, reigning Olympic champion, to qualify here. Katarzyna Wasick (Poland) beat her into bronze and also won a silver in 2022. Zhang Yufei (China) finished ahead of Weitzeil in the 2023 World Championship to win bronze. She also won the 2023 Asian Games ahead of Siobhan Haughey (Hong Kong). Anna Hopkin (Great Britain), Kornelia Fiedkiewicz (Poland), Julie Kepp Jensen (Denmark) Michelle Coleman (Sweden) and Taylor Ruck (Canada) have all made World Championship finals in recent years but that would probably be the extent of their expectations.
You have to feel this is Sjostrom’s time. She has been the best, most consistent performer. This season she has eight of the nine fastest times in the world. It would take someone swimming out of their skin to beat her. Jack looks like being the biggest Australian threat. Behind them, I think Wasick can actually beat the American threat to take bronze.
🥇Sarah Sjostrom 🇸🇪
🥈Shayna Jack 🇦🇺
🥉Katarzyna Wasick 🇵🇱
Women’s 100m Freestyle
Australia took two medals at the last Olympics and it shows their strength in depth in this event that they could take two medals again, with two different swimmers. Mollie O’Callaghan (Australia) is only 20 and is a double world champion. Shayna Jack (Australia) was the second fastest woman in 2022, behind O’Callaghan and won bronze at the 2024 World Championship. The 2024 world champion was Marrit Steenbergen (Netherlands) improving from her bronze in 2023. Separating them was Siobhan Haughey (Hong Kong). That added to her 2023 World Championship silver medal in a year that she was the fastest woman in the world. She was also the Tokyo Olympic silver medalist. She also won the 2023 Asian Games ahead of Yang Junxuan (China) who has made a global final. So have Anna Hopkin (Great Britain), Barbora Seemanova (Czech Republic), Kornelia Fiedkiewicz (Poland) and Michelle Coleman (Sweden). American will have Tori Huske (United States), the 2022 World Champion and Kate Douglass (United States) who has finished fourth at the last two World Championships. Sarah Sjostrom (Sweden) has been concentrating on the 50m but was a silver medalist at the 2022 World Championship. Maggie MacNeil (Canada) is also stronger at other events but did win the 2023 Pan-American Games.
In the final, I expect to see Kate Douglass, Marit Steenbergen, Mollie O’Callaghan, Sarah Sjostrom, Shayna Jack, Siobhan Haughey, Torri Huske and Yang Junxuan. At the front end, I think Haughey and O’Callaghan are battling out for gold. O’Callaghan has the major final pedigree whereas Haughey has shown so much ability but doesn’t seem to get it done in the finals. I think she can this year, in a bit of a minor upset. Behind them, I think Jack and Steenbergen are favoured ahead of the American pair and I have a bit more faith in Steenbergen to come up with a big swim.
🥇Siobhan Haughey 🇭🇰
🥈Mollie O’Callaghan 🇦🇺
🥉Marit Steenbergen 🇳🇱
Women’s 200m Freestyle
The 200m has been one of the most anticipated races at the last few Olympics. In Tokyo, it was meant to be a battle between Katie Ledecky (United States) and Ariarne Titmus (Australia). Ledecky was the 2016 Olympic champion but fell away to finish fifth whilst Titmus swam an Olympic record to take gold. Since then she was the fastest woman in the world in 2022 and finished second in the 2023 World Championship. She was beaten by her compatriot Mollie O’Callaghan (Australia) who improved on her silver in 2022. In 2022, the world champion was Yang Junxuan (China). She was the unfortunate fourth-place finisher in Tokyo. Siobhan Haughey (Hong Kong) is the other medalist from Tokyo who will compete. She won silver with an Asian record. At the 2023 World Championship, she only finished fourth but became world champion in 2024. Barbora Seemanova (Czech Republic) came fourth in the 2024 World Championship with Nikolett Padar (Hungary) in sixth. Erika Fairweather (New Zealand) won silver at the 2024 World Championship.
This will likely be a battle between the Australian teammates. McIntosh and Haughey are the two most likely to break into that battle. Ledecky obviously has the class to do it but it feels a jump to put her back in that contending class right now. I think I edge O’Callaghan over her teammate at the moment and McIntosh can go faster than Haughey to take bronze.
🥇Mollie O’Callaghan 🇦🇺
🥈Ariarne Titmus 🇦🇺
🥉Summer McIntosh 🇨🇦
Women’s 400m Freestyle
Since the turn of the century, an American athlete has won a medal in every Olympics, sometimes even two. Katie Ledecky (United States) won gold in 2016 but could only take silver in Tokyo. It was another defeat by Ariarne Titmus (Australia). Titmus was the world champion in 2019 and 2023 and has been the fastest in the world for the last three years. Another Olympic medalist is Li Bingjie (China) who won bronze in Tokyo. She won silver at the 2024 World Championship after winning the Asian Games in 2023. Beating her to win in 2024 was Erika Fairweather (New Zealand) who improved from bronze in 2023. The bronze medal winner in 2024 was Isabel Gose (Germany). She has competed in several global finals including at the last Olympics when finishing sixth and was also European champion in 2022. Summer McIntosh (Canada) also competed in the last Olympics and finished fourth. Since then she won silver in the 2022 World Championship and finished fourth in 2023, despite having the second fastest time of the year. Maria Fernanda Costa (Brazil) came fourth in the 2024 World Championship. Eve Thomas (New Zealand) and Gabrielle Roncatto (Brazil) were both in the 2024 World Championship final but competing may be beyond them here. Simona Quadarella (Italy) was the European Championship silver medalist in 2022 with Ajna Kesely (Hungary) winning bronze in 2022. Paige Madden (United States) won the 2023 Pan-American Games.
This is going to be another titanic battle. Ledecky and Titmus represent the older guard who already have medals in this event along with Smith and Bingjie. New challengers will be McIntosh and Fairweather. I think it comes down to the big four as athletes who will expect to go under four minutes. Titmus has always shown herself one for the big occasion and I think she can take the gold here. Behind her should be McIntosh, her greatest contender at the moment, with the two of them capable of times that may be beyond the others at this Olympics. I do think Ledecky can hold off Fairweather to take a bronze medal.
🥇Ariarne Titmus 🇦🇺
🥈Summer McIntosh 🇨🇦
🥉Katie Ledecky 🇺🇸
Women’s 800m Freestyle
This is a Katie Ledecky (United States) dominated event. She has won three straight Olympic gold medals. She also won six straight World Championships before not competing in 2024. Taking advantage of her absence was Simone Quadarella (Italy). She already has an Olympic medal after winning bronze in Tokyo. That gold allowed her to complete the medal set in this event and she also finished fourth in 2023. She was also the 2022 European champion ahead of Isabel Gose (Germany). She is a consistent global finalist and finally took a medal winning silver at the 2024 World Championship. The other medalist in 2024 was Erika Fairweather (New Zealand) who won bronze. Ariarne Titmus (Australia) was the other Tokyo Olympics medalist, winning silver. She won bronze in the 2019 and 2023 World Championships. Compatriot Kiah Melverton (Australia) was World Championship silver medalist in 2022, when she swum the third fastest time. Anastasia Kirpichnikova (France) was third fastest in 2020 having represented Russia in the Tokyo Olympics where she made the final. Li Bingjie (China) has silver medals from both 2017 and 2023 as well as the 2023 Asian Games. Paige Madden (United States) won the 2023 Pan-American Games. Agostina Hein (Argentina) and Anja Kesely (Hungary) made the 2024 World Championship final.
It is so hard to see past Ledecky in the event where she is utterly dominant. She has the 25 fastest times ever and is the only woman to have gone under 8.10 in this Olympic cycle. Behind her, the race is more interesting. Titmus has historically been her closest challenger but Binjie can swim quickly enough to challenge. Melverton, Quadarella and Gose will also compete. I have to give the edge to Titmus’ continued quality and behind her I think the improving Gose can take bronze.
🥇Katie Ledecky 🇺🇸
🥈Ariarne Titmus 🇦🇺
🥉Isabel Gose 🇩🇪
Women’s 1500m Freestyle
This was competed in for the first time in Tokyo and American got a one-two. Katie Ledecky (United States) took gold as she did at five of the six World Championships before 2024. She has been the fastest swimmer in the world for the past seven years. Taking advantage of her absence both times was Simona Quadarella (Italy). She won silver at the 2023 World Championship and was the 2022 European Champion. Li Bingjie (China) was the Asian Games winner in 2023 ahead of compatriot Gao Weizhong (China). Bingjie won World Championship bronze in 2023 and silver in 2024. The other medalist in 2024 was Isabel Gose (Germany) who won bronze after finishing sixth in 2023. Lani Pallister (Australia) won bronze at the 2022 World Championship with Katie Grimes (United States) taking the silver as well as swimming the second fastest time that year. Anastasia Kirpichnikova (France) is consistently in global major finals, with a big finish of fourth at the 2023 World Championship. Moesha Johnson (Australia) came fourth at the 2022 World Championship whilst Eve Thomas (New Zealand) was fourth in 2024.
Again, Ledecky is very clear of the rest of the field here. In this Olympic cycle, she has had at least a ten-second gap on the rest of the field. Quadarella has been consistently the second fastest and it would also be a surprise if she doesn’t follow Ledecky home. The final medal should come down to Binjie, Gose, Grimes and Pallister. I think Bingjie can edge it over Gose.
🥇Katie Ledecky 🇺🇸
🥈Simona Quadarella 🇮🇹
🥉Li Bingjie 🇨🇳
Women’s 100m Backstroke
Every podium since 2004 has seen an American swimmer on it and this could see all three medalists from Tokyo return. Kaylee McKeown (Australia) is the reigning champion. She also won the 2023 World Championship and is consistently one of the fastest women in the world. Kylie Masse (Canada) won silver in Tokyo and bronze in 2016. She is a double world champion but could only win silver in 2022 and finish fourth in 2023. The bronze medalist in Tokyo was Regan Smith (United States). Since then she has won the 2022 World Championship and finished second in 2023. The 2023 bronze medalist was Katharine Berkoff (United States) and she had the third fastest time in 2023. In second in 2024 was Ioan Anderson (Australia) with Ingrid Wilm (Canada) winning bronze, improving from fifth in 2023. Wan Leitan (China) finished fourth in the 2022 World Championship and won the 2023 Asian Games ahead of compatriot Wang Xueer (China). Medi Harris (Great Britain) has medalled in both European and Commonwealth championships but has only reached finals in global competitions without competing for medals. A cache of European contenders also exist but feel unlikely to medal. Anastasia Shkurdai (Belarus) is probably better over further but could have a chance here. Emma Terebo (France), Kathleen Dawson (Great Britain), Kira Toussaint (Netherlands) and Maikee de Waard (Netherlands) are all world championship finalists over recent years.
It feels like a face-off between McKeown and Smith. They are the only swimmers to have gone under 58 seconds this cycle and both have done it numerous times. Masse is maybe past her best but has been a solid major championship performer. Berkoff is also very consistent. Behind them, Wilm, Anderson and the Chinese pair will be hoping for them to slip up but it seems hard to picture all four of the main contenders struggling enough to bring anyone else into it. I think ultimately McKeown repeats ahead of Smith and I think Berkoff can take bronze ahead of Masse.
🥇Kaylee McKeown 🇦🇺
🥈Regan Smith 🇺🇸
🥉Katharine Berkoff 🇺🇸
Women’s 200m Backstroke
Kaylee McKeown (Australia) will be looking to do the double again after winning the Tokyo Olympics. She has been the fastest swimmer for the last four years and is a double world champion. Kylie Masse (Canada) also won an Olympic medal in Tokyo, taking silver. She did win bronze at the 2019 World Championship but hasn’t medalled since. Regan Smith (United States) is a major contender. She was the 2019 world champion and won silver in 2022. Compatriot Claire Curzan is reigning world champion but it is Phoebe Bacon (United States) who has that second spot. She was the silver medalist at the 2022 World Championship. In 2024, Jaclyn Barclay (Australia) took silver ahead of Anastasiya Shkurdai (Belarus). In 2023, Peng Xuwei (China) took bronze before winning the Asian Games ahead of compatriot Liu Yaxin (China). Both women also competed in the Tokyo Olympic final. Xuwei finished ahead of Katie Shanahan (Great Britain) who came fourth in 2023. She also won medals at the Commonwealth and European Championships in 2022. The European champion was Margherita Panziera (Italy). She also finished fourth at the 2019 and 2022 World Championships. Dara Molnar (Hungary), Eszter Szabo-Feltothy (Hungary), Gabriela Georgieva (Bulgaria) and Laura Bernat (Poland) have all made recent world championship finals.
Again it feels like McKeown and Smith should dominate. They are the only two swimmers to have gone under 2.04 in this Olympic cycle. It remains incredibly hard to pick against McKeown. She consistently swims incredible times and as the current world record, has shown her ability to go faster than anyone else. Behind them should Bacon. She is the only other contender to have gone under 2.06, a feat which she has managed consistently. Xuwei, Shukrdai, Panziera and Masse will all potentially expect to compete if Bacon doesn’t perform but it is hard to pick a top three who is so much faster and consistent than the rest of the competition.
🥇Kaylee McKeown 🇦🇺
🥈Regan Smith 🇺🇸
🥉Phoebe Bacon 🇺🇸
Women’s 100m Breaststroke
United States have won six medals at the last four Olympics in this event but this is one of the most open events in this Olympics. Lilly King (United States) has won two of those medals. She was Olympic champion in 2016 and won bronze in Tokyo. She is a double world champion but only finished fourth in 2022 and 2023. Tatjana Smith (South Africa) won silver at both the 2023 World Championship and the Tokyo Olympics. The other Olympic medalist in the field is Ruta Meilutyte (Lithuania) who took gold in 2012. She was the 2023 World Champion, improving from bronze in 2022. Her compatriot Kotryna Teterevkova (Lithuania) finished fourth in 2024. The world champion was Tang Qianting (China) who beat Tes Schouten (Netherlands). The 2022 world champion was Benedetto Pilato (Italy) and she also won the European Championship over compatriot Lisa Angiolini (Italy). Behind Pilato, winning silver at the 2022 World Championships was Anna Elendt (Germany). The fastest woman in the world that year was actually Reona Aoki (Japan) who went on to win the 2023 Asian Games. Alina Zmushka (Belarus), Eneli Jefimova (Estonia), Mona McSharry (Ireland), Sophie Hansson (Sweden) and Yang Chang (China) have all recently participated in World Championship finals. Angharad Evans (Great Britain) turned 21 earlier in the year and is the sixth fastest swimmer in the world this year.
This could go anywhere. King has been so strong for a long time but her recent major final record is concerning. Smith nor Jacoby has returned to their Tokyo Olympic form but both are capable. Meilutyte had a brilliant 2023 but has not been as good this year. Qianting has been the strongest this season, swimming the four fastest times of a competitor in this field. Aoki, Evans, McSharry, Pilato and Schouten will all likely think they can break into the medal picture. I think this uncertainty needs to be reflected in the prediction. I will go with Qianting to take gold ahead of Smith and Evans taking a surprise bronze.
🥇Tang Qianting 🇨🇳
🥈Tatjana Smith 🇿🇦
🥉Angharad Evans 🇬🇧
Women’s 200m Breaststroke
In Tokyo, Tatjana Smith (South Africa) swum a brilliant world record to take gold. She also took the 2023 World Championship and has consistently been one of the fastest women in the world. Behind her in Tokyo was Lilly King (United States). She was the 2022 World champion and fastest woman in the world before coming fourth in 2023. Compatriot Kate Douglass (United States) was stronger than her. She has won silvers at the last two World Championships and won bronze in 2022. In 2024 she was beaten by Tee Schouten (Netherlands) who came third in 2023. The other 2024 medalist was Sydney Pickrem (Canada) who won bronze in 2019 and 2024. She also won the Pan-American Games. Compatriot Kelsey Wog (Canada) has been in numerous world championship finals and came fourth in 2022. Ye Shiwen (China) has also finished fourth at a World Championship and won at the 2023 Asian Games. Lisa Mamie (Switzerland) was the 2022 European Champion and tends to put up solid times. Kotryna Teterevkova (Lithuania) was fancied to challenge at the 2024 when she withdrew after the semi-final. Jenna Strauch (Australia) has a World Championship silver medal from 2022. Thea Blomsterberg (Denmark) has made finals without really challenging for medals yet. Alina Zmushka (Belarus) finished fourth at the 2024 World Championship with Mona McSharry (Ireland) in fifth.
This is one of the weaker events. The fastest swimmer of this Olympic cycle is Evgenia Chikunova who will not compete. In her absence, there is a clear top four of Douglass, King, Smith and Schouten. Behind them, Blomsterberg, McSharry and Teterevkova especially will be hoping they disappoint so they can break into the medals. I do make Douglass favourite to get the gold. Behind her, I think Schouten can take silver and Smith edges out King to win bronze.
🥇Kate Douglass 🇺🇸
🥈Tes Schouten 🇳🇱
🥉Tatjana Smith 🇿🇦
Women’s 100m Butterfly
The medalists from Tokyo will return and this overall looks to have one of the stronger list of contenders. Maggie MacNeil (Canada) won gold in Tokyo after being the 2019 world champion. Since then she has won the 2023 Pan-American Games and was second in the 2023 World Championship. The 2023 world champion was Zhang Yufei (China), reversing the results with MacNeil from the Tokyo Olympics where she won silver. The bronze medalist was Emma McKeon (Australia). Before that, she won World Championship silver in 2017 and bronze in 2019 but her best finish since Tokyo was fourth in 2023. It was Torri Huske (United States) who beat her, reversing the placing from the Tokyo Olympics. She was also the 2022 World champion and fastest in the world that year. Compatriot Gretchen Walsh (United States) is the fastest woman in the world this year, having been third fastest in 2023. It was Angelina Kohler (Germany) who took gold in 2024 improving on her fifth in 2023. The other medalist was the fast-starting Louise Hansson (Sweden) who had previously finished fourth in 2022 and won the European Championship. Marie Wattel (France) was behind Hansson, winning silver at the 2022 European Championship and also won World Championship silver that year. Anna Ntounounaki (Greece), Erin Gallagher (South Africa) and Lana Puder (Bosnia and Herzegovina) are all World Championship finalists over recent years. Mizuki Hirai (Japan) has gone the fourth fastest in the field this season.
This should be really good. The eight names that make the final will really deserve it and it should be eight names who are seen as realistic medal contenders. Yufei was so consistently strong in 2023 that if she gets to the same level of form, she is a certain contender. Huske has shown herself to be the American number one over recent years but Walsh has the two fastest times this season including setting the World Record. MacNeil needs to return to her form from the last Olympics. Kohler seems to be consistently improving and will hope to medal. Wattel inspired by her home crowd is tough to leave out of the shakeup as well. I will edge to the big race expence of Huske to edge Walsh and Yufei. Kohler will trail in fourth in one of the races of the Olympics
🥇Torri Huske 🇺🇸
🥈Gretchen Walsh 🇺🇸
🥉Zhang Yufei 🇨🇳
Women’s 200m Butterfly
China has won three of the last four Olympic titles. It was Zhang Yufei (China) who took gold in Tokyo. Since then she has won bronze in the 2023 World Championship as well as the Asian Games. Regan Smith (United States) won silver at the Tokyo Olympics and has since finished fourth at the 2022 World Championship and third in 2023. Both of those titles were won by Summer McIntosh (Canada) who will only be 17 for the Paris Olympics. The reigning world champion is Laura Stephens (Great Britain) who took advantage of her absence in 2024 to win gold. She was second at the 2022 Commonwealth Games behind Elizabeth Dekkers (Australia) who was the 2023 World Championship silver medalist. Lana Pudar (Bosnia and Herzegovina) was the 2022 European Champion and improved to bronze at the 2024 World Championship after coming fourth in 2023. Winning silver at the European Championships and the 2024 World Championship was Helena Bach (Denmark). Airi Mitsui (Japan) was fifth in 2023. Abbey Lee Connor (Australia), Alex Shackell (United States) and Keanna Macinnes (Great Britain) are all overshadowed by favoured teammates but have all swum fast this season.
McIntosh will be one of the strongest favourites in the pool here. She looks incredibly dominant and given her young age is only getting better. Her race will be against the clock. Expect an Olympic record and possibly a sub-2.03. Behind her will be an intriguing battle. Yufei, Smith and Dekkers will expect to have an edge over the European contenders Stephens, Pudar and Bach. I do edge to Dekkers but I think Smith can beat Yufei and the improving Pudar.
🥇Summer McIntosh 🇨🇦
🥈Elizabeth Dekkers 🇦🇺
🥉Regan Smith 🇺🇸
Women’s 200m Medley
United States have had a medal at every edition of this event since the turn of the century. They will be represented by the medalists from Tokyo. Alex Walsh (United States) won silver before going on to be the 2022 World Champion and winning silver in 2023. It was compatriot Kate Douglass (United States) who won in 2023 before repeating in 2024. She was also the bronze medalist in Tokyo. The winner was Yui Ohashi (Japan) who improved on her World Championship silver from 2017. The big contender for the title is Summer McIntosh (Canada). The 17-year-old is going to be busy in Paris and was the fastest in this event last year after winning the Commonwealth Games in 2023. The silver medalist was Kaylee McKeown (Australia). She was the fastest woman in the world in 2020 and 2021 and won silver at the 2022 World Championship. Abbie Wood (Great Britain) won bronze at the Commonwealth Games after finishing fourth at the Tokyo Olympics. Yu Yiting (China) came fifth but has been the bronze medal winner at the last two World Championships as well as winning the 2023 Asian Games. She beat compatriot Ye Shiwen (China) into silver which she’d also won at the 2019 World Championship. Sydney Pickrem (Canada) also has world championship medals. She won bronze in 2019 and took silver in 2024. Anastasia Gorbenko (Israel) was fourth in 2024 after finishing fifth at the two World Championships prior. She is also the 2022 European Champion where she beat Marrit Steenbergen (Netherlands) and Sara Franceschi (Italy).
This feels competitive at the top end but maybe not the same excitement about the strength in depth. McIntosh has gone fastest in this Olympic cycle but she will have a busy schedule in Paris and I think Douglass can get the win here. She has been consistently faster and has the championship pedigree. Behind them, I think McKeown can put it together on the big stage to beat Walsh to bronze. Pickrem and Walsh would be most likely to break into that tier.
🥇Kate Douglass 🇺🇸
🥈Summer McIntosh 🇨🇦
🥉Kaylee McKeown 🇦🇺
Women’s 400m Medley
The United States has won a medal in that race every year since 2004 but without winning gold. That looks likely to continue. Summer McIntosh (Canada) has dominated this event, winning world championships in 2022 and 2023 as well as being the fastest woman in those years. Katie Grimes (United States) looks like the American number one, finishing as the runner-up for both of those years. Compatriot Emma Weyant (United States) was runner up at the Tokyo Olympics and won bronze at the 2022 World Championship. Jenna Forrester (Australia) won bronze in 2023 and was also the third fastest in the world that year. In 2024, it was Sara Franceschi (Italy) who won bronze. Ahead of her was Anastasia Gorbenko (Israel) who won silver. The gold medal winner was Freya Colbert (Great Britain) who had finished duty in 2023 finishing ahead of Katie Shanahan (Great Britain) in seventh. Ageha Tanigawa (Japan) has also swum some fast times and finished second at the 2023 Asian Games ahead of teammate Mio Narita (Japan). Vivien Jackl (Hungary) has swum the fifth fastest time this season.
This is McIntosh against the clock. She is so much better than the rest of the field she would have to underperform to let the others in. She has gone sub 4.26 and her race is against her own world record whereas no one else in this field has gone sub 4.30 in this Olympic cycle. Behind her, Grimes looks like the clear number two ahead of a battle between Colbert, Forrester and Weyant. I slightly edge to Colbert and her improvement but could see it going either way.
🥇Summer McIntosh 🇨🇦
🥈Katie Grimes 🇺🇸
🥉Freya Colbert 🇬🇧
Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay
Australia and the United States have medalled at the last five Olympics. Australia are the reigning Olympic Champions and won three straight world titles, but could only finish second in 2024. United States haven’t been world champions since 2017, winning silver twice and bronze once. Canada has medalled at the last two Olympics and won silver at the 2022 World Championships and bronze in 2024. Before that, the Netherlands had won medals at four straight Olympics. They were world champions in 2024 but the event was weaker. Great Britain was European champions in 2022 and finished fourth in the 2023 World Championship. Behind them in both of those competitions was Sweden. China has a bronze medal from the 2023 World Championship and won at the Asian Games ahead of Japan.
Australia has three swimmers who could potentially win individual medals as well as having several strong swimmers behind them. Again, they could challenge the world record they set at the 2023 World Championships. As with the men’s team, the United States have great strength in depth. Canada can put together three really good legs so a fourth makes them real contenders. Sweden, China and Great Britain probably also struggle with their weaker legs.
🥇Australia 🇦🇺
🥈United States 🇺🇸
🥉Canada 🇨🇦
Women’s 4x200m Freestyle Relay
United States have medalled every time this race has happened whilst Australia has managed that all but once. The United States won a world title in 2022 before finishing second in 2023. Australia were champions in 2023 after finishing second in 2022 and third in 2024. China enter as the reigning Olympic and World champions but only came third in 2023. Great Britain won silver in 2024 after finishing fourth the year prior. They were runners-up at the 2022 European Championships behind the Netherlands. The bronze medal winners were Hungary. Canada won bronze medals at the 2019 and 2023 World Championships after finishing fourth in the Tokyo Olympics. Brazil has made the last three global finals and finished fourth in 2024.
Australia have arguably the top two swimmers in this discipline as well as the strength in depth to be favourites here. Again, it is the world record that they will be chasing. The United States are probably going to be clear in second with the bronze medal battle coming down to Canada, China and Great Britain. China are the solid team whilst Canada could potentially beat them if they put it all together.
🥇Australia 🇦🇺
🥈United States 🇺🇸
🥉China 🇨🇳
Women’s 4x100m Medley Relay
The last Olympics that Australia did not medal in was 1992, whilst the United States has always medalled. Australia are the reigning Olympic and World Champions having finished second at the three World Championships prior. That was part of a run as the United States won four straight but could only come second at the Tokyo Olympics. Canada won bronze as they have done at the last five major tournaments. Sweden is the current European champions and finished second at the 2024 World Championships. China were fourth at the Tokyo Olympics as well as the last two World championships. It was Japan who won the 2023 Asian Games though. The European contingent of France, Great Britain, Italy and Netherlands will hope to be involved in the final.
Australia, Canada, China and the United States all can put out really strong lineups with no real weakness. Great Britain, the Netherlands and Sweden all have one weak leg which could cost them here. Maybe the biggest weakness of the big four comes in the Australian breaststroke. But can it cost them a medal given the strength of the other legs. This could be one of the races of the Olympics if all goes well. United States are going to get quality swims out of all participants whereas some of the Canadian swimmers are arguably past their best. I think the front four could be split by a second or two with the United States winning.
🥇United States 🇺🇸
🥈Australia 🇦🇺
🥉Canada 🇨🇦
Mixed 4x100m Medley
This race has only taken place once at the Olympics and Great Britain took the win. They have not managed to repeat in the World Championships yet but did swim the fastest time in 2023. China were silver medalists in Tokyo as well as winning the world title in 2023. The bronze medalist in Tokyo were Australia and they have finished second at four of the last five World Championships, winning the other. United States were the world champions in 2017, 2022 and 2024. The Netherlands won bronze in 2022, but could only finish fourth in 2023. They also won the 2022 European Championship ahead of Italy. They are consistent finalists and took fourth in Tokyo but are yet to medal in a global final. Canada has a bronze medal from 2017 but since then their best form is a sixth place finish in 2024. Brazil were the 2023 Pan-American Games champions whilst Japan came second in the 2023 Asian Games. Poland came fourth in the 2024 World Championship ahead of Greece.
Some of these lineups look incredibly strong. Australia, China and the United States will likely have four swimmers who have made the finals in the chosen discipline. Aside from the typical superpowers so will Canada and Netherlands. France, Great Britain and Italy have one weakness but if they can get someone to swim a quality leg, they are also in with a chance. This is another race that should be an incredible final. I think this comes down to China and the United States and China are able to edge it. Behind them, I think the Netherlands look very strong and can take bronze.
🥇China 🇨🇳
🥈United States 🇺🇸
🥉Netherlands 🇳🇱
Women’s Open Water Swimming
Ana Marcela Cunha (Brazil) returns as the reigning Olympic champion. She won bronze in the 2022 World Championship and was only fourth in 2024. The 2016 Olympic champion and silver medalist in Tokyo was Sharon van Rouwendaal (Netherlands). She was world champion in both 2022 and 2024. Leonie Beck (Germany) took the 2023 world title along with two World Series events and the 2022 European Championship. Another former world champion is Xin Xin (China) who won in 2019. Caroline Jouisse (France) won the 2023 World Series event in Setubal whilst compatriot Oceane Cassignol (France) has had three podiums over the last four seasons. Behind Jouisse in Setubal was Arianna Bridi (Italy) who won World Championship bronze in 2017. Angelica Andre (Portugal) was the bronze medal winner in 2024 and also won bronze in the 2022 European Games. Maria de Valdes (Spain) beat her in 2024 by winning silver with Moesha Johnson (Australia) back in fourth. Compatriot Chelsea Gubecka (Australia) won silver in 2023 as well as winning a 2022 World Series event in Eilat. It was Katie Grimes (United States) who won bronze in 2023, improving on her fifth from 2022. Other potential contenders include Bettina Fabian (Hungary), Mariah Denigan (United States) and Viviane Jungblut (Brazil).
The results from Van Rouwendaal over recent years show her to be a consistent contender at the biggest events. Beck is another who seems to thrive off the biggest races. Xin and Cunha have the back class but can they beat out the crop of young talent. Grimes and Denigan are 21 or under. Bridi has gone through a battle just to make the strong Italian team whilst Jouisse will have a home advantage.
🥇Leonie Beck 🇩🇪
🥈Katie Grimes 🇺🇸
🥉Sharon Van Rouwendaal 🇳🇱
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