Men’s singles
The tennis will be played at Roland Garros, home of the French Open meaning we have swathes of form, although the different timing of the tournament compared to the major may see a different bounce of ball and some unexpected names come to the fore. Rafael Nadal (Spain) has won fourteen French Open titles and has a record at Roland Garros of 112-4. Injuries mean it is impossible to know what level he is at, but if there is anywhere that Nadal can win a tournament - it is here. Novak Djokovic (Serbia) has put himself at the forefront of most conversations regarding the greatest of all time. He has won the most majors and two of the last four French Opens but suffered an injury earlier this year which kept him out of Wimbledon. The next big thing is Carlos Alcaraz (Spain). He is a four-time grand slam winner, who won the French Open earlier this season and has also won the Madrid Masters twice. Jannik Sinner has been the man of the 2024 season and is world number one but misses out due to injury. Stefanos Tsitsipas (Greece) has won three times at Monte Carlo and made the 2021 French Open final. Casper Ruud (Norway) was runner-up in 2022 and 2023 but his form has taken a worrying nosedive over the last year. Alexander Zverev (Germany) is another who has played well at Roland Garros, reaching the semi-finals in 2021, 2022 and 2023 before taking Alcaraz to five sets in the 2024 final. Danii Medvedev (Russia) won the Rome Masters in 2023 but isn’t known for being strong on clay. Alex De Minaur (Australia) and Taylor Fritz (United States) both improved on clay this season but it would be a shock if either could medal. Other Masters finalists on the surface over the last two years are Felix Auger-Aliassime (Canada), Jan-Lennard Struff (Germany) and Nicolas Jarry (Chile). Stan Wawrinka (Switzerland) has a legacy entries but is not known for his ability on clay.
A few key differences from the French Open will be the weather which should help those who prefer a quicker surface. They will also only play three sets, Alcaraz was 2-1 down twice on his way to French Open glory. The injury to Djokovic may be the key here. Has he recovered? Has the extra rest and no grass season been a benefit to him? He has been clear about his desire to take an Olympic gold and unless the courts become really fast I think he can take gold. Alcaraz would have lost two games in the French Open if it was first to two sets and along with a busy schedule, I think he can be beaten here. The top quarter is a hellacious draw with Arnaldi, Baez, Fils, Novak, Nadal and Tsitsipas all in the same section of the draw. The softest section is quarter three and Ruud will expect to make his way through. Alcaraz looks like coming through the fourth quarter whilst I think Jarry or Musetti can come through the other section. There is usually shock medalists and I think Musetti can be that with Ruud coming through to win silver.
🥇Novak Djokovic 🇷🇸
🥈Casper Ruud 🇳🇴
🥉Lorenzo Musetti 🇮🇹
Men’s Doubles
The doubles tournament sees a mixture of doubles teams or specialists often competing against a strong singles player and their compatriot. The doubles tournament is headlined by Alcaraz/Nadal (Spain) who have fifteen French Open wins between them. Whilst it is a dream team, neither has much doubles experience at the top level. Mektic/Pavic (Croatia) are one of the stronger pairings on clay. They won three clay Masters titles when a pairing and Pavic won the French Open this season in his new pairing. Bolelli/Vavassori (Italy) were runners-up in the French Open this year. Gille/Vliegen (Belgium) were runners-up in the 2023 French Open and won in Monte-Carlo earlier in the season. The lowest combined doubles ranking is the pairing of Salisbury/Skupski (Great Britain). Despite neither being particularly strong on clay, both won separate Masters titles in 2022. Krawietz/Putz(Germany) made the French Open quarter-final last year and Krawitez has won the French Open before. Ebden/Peers (Australia) features the number one doubles player who reached the semi-final of the 2024 French Open. Granollers/Carreno Busta (Spain) includes the number two player and he has had a good record on clay in recent years. Ram/Krajicek (United States) are both top fifteen in the doubles rankings and Krajicek won at the 2023 French Open. Rojer/Haase (Netherlands) also have a French Open winner, in Rojer back in 2022. Gonzalez/Molteni(Argentina) and Tsitsipas/Tsitsipas (Greece) have both reached the quarter-finals of the French Open in the last couple of years. Other teams include Bopanna/Balaji (India), Fritz/Paul (United States) and Medvedev/Safiullin (Russia). Evans/Murray (Great Britain) will be playing in Murray’s final game before retirement.
The story will be about the Spanish pair of superstars. The romantic in me thinks this is a brilliant pairing given their level of excellence at Roland Garros and they can win. The logical side thinks that the majority of medalists have been the players more at home in the doubles format although Nadal has an Olympic doubles gold. I think the Croatian pair will be favourites with both of the players' strong doubles form and Pavic showing his liking for clay this year. Outside of this, I think the proven Belgian and Italian pairs have a serious chance whilst you would think the other Spanish pair also can compete. I do think Alcaraz and Nadal can medal but it will not be gold.
🥇Mate Pavic/Nikola Mektic 🇭🇷
🥈Sander Gille/Joran Vliegen 🇧🇪
🥉Carlos Alcaraz/Rafael Nadal 🇪🇸
Women’s Singles
Iga Swiatek (Poland) is the dominant female player, especially on clay. She has won four of the last five French Opens. The winner in the other year was Barbora Krejcikova (Czech Republic) who won in 2021. Coco Gauff (United States) has a claim for the second best, especially given her French Open record which saw her make the quarter-finals either side of a 2021 appearance in the final and a 2024 loss to Swiatek in the semi-final. Elena Rybakina (Kazakhstan) won at the Rome Masters in 2023. Another past winner at Roland Garros is Jelena Ostapenko (Latvia) and she is always a tricky opponent. Jasmine Paolini (Italy) was runner-up to Swiatek at the French Open this year. The dominance of Swiatek has not left a lot of room for other players to play well but other semi-finalists in recent years are Beatriz Haddad Maia (Brazil) and Maria Sakkari (Greece). Karolina Muchova (Czech Republic) made the final of the 2023 French Open. Danielle Collins (United States) has had a strong 2024 and made the semi-finals of the Rome Masters. Compatriots Jessica Pegula (United States) and Emma Navarro (United States) are not known for their clay pedigree. Zheng Qinwen (China) has made the quarter-finals in Rome for the last two years but other than that her clay form is bare. The two legacy places are with players who are not at their best on clay. Angelique Kerber (Germany) has four slams but has never been past the quarter-finals at Roland Garros. Naomi Osaka (Japan) does have a poor record on clay but had a match point saved against Swiatek at the French Open this year. Caroline Garcia (France) is the home favourite but has slipped down the rankings recently.
Swiatek has to be the strong favourite given her dominance on clay. You would expect her to beat anyone she is drawn against. It will also see anyone drawn in her quarter fall outside the medals for me. Osaka showed just how good she can be on her day even on a weaker surface and I think she has to be in the shakeup. Gauff is a consistent type on clay and I think she will medal. Rybakina is a danger, especially in health remains on her side. Paolini and Muchova have recent success on this surface whilst Haddad Maia has always shown great potential on clay.
🥇Iga Swiatek 🇵🇱
🥈Coco Gauff 🇺🇸
🥉Naomi Osaka 🇯🇵
Women’s doubles
Gauff/Pegula (United States) is a combination of two of the best singles players together. These two have been an established pair on tour though and are often in the later stage of tournaments despite clay not being their strongest surface. Krejcikova/Siniakova (Czech Republic) won at the 2021 French Open after losing in the semi in 2020. They also have won three other French Open doubles titles with other partners. Bucsa/Sorribes Tormo (Spain) won at the 2024 Madrid Masters. Errani/Paolini (Italy) won in Rome before losing in the 2024 French Open final. Su-wei/Chia-yi (Taiwan) feature the highest-ranked doubles player in the tournament. She has won eight slams including two French Opens. Routliffe/Sun (New Zealand) is another combination featuring a highly-ranked doubles player and an unproven partner. Siegmund/Kerber (Germany) includes Siegmund whose team was runner-up at the 2024 Madrid Masters but neither of these are particularly strong on clay. Dabrowski/Fernandez (Canada) including a top ten doubles player and a 2023 French Open doubles runner-up. Aoyama/Shibahara (Japan), Chan/Chan (Taiwan) and Wang/Zheng (China) are all proven teams with strong form on clay over recent years. Both Collins/Krawczyk (United States) and Stefani/Haddad Maia (Brazil) have a strong singles player mixed with a highly-ranked doubles player.
Both Bucsa/Sorribes Tormo and Errani/Paplini are proven pairs with strong form over the last 12 months including on clay. Krejcikova/Siniakova probably have the strongest long-term clay form, both individually and as a pair. Gauff/Pegula have the experience of being a strong partnership for years but neither would consider this their strongest surface. Outside of that, I think Collins/Krawczyk and Dabrowski/Fernandes are dangerous.
🥇Barbora Krejcikova/Katerina Siniakova 🇨🇿
🥈Sara Errani/Jessica Paolini 🇮🇹
🥉Coco Gauff/Jessica Pegula 🇺🇸
Mixed Doubles
Another event that has a bit of a different feel as we get a mixture of singles players along with the doubles specialists. Perez/Ebden (Australia) are the top-ranked doubles specialist and competed in the French Open together this year, reaching the quarter-final. Zverev/Siegmund (Germany) features half the winning pair from the 2024 French Open, whilst Zverev was in the singles final. The other half of that winning side is also part of a pairing as Roger-Vasselin/Garcia (France) team up whilst Garcia is a two-time doubles winner at Roland Garros. Another pairing where one of the team has had success in the French Open mixed doubles is Nishikori/Shibahara (Japan), with Shibahara winning in 2022. Sailsbury/Watson (Great Britain) had Sailsbury win here in 2021. Both Vavassori/Errani (Italy) made the French Open final in their respective doubles pairings this year. Granollers/Sorribes Torno (Spain) are both strong doubles players and won Masters events this year on clay in their pairings. Other teams mainly rely on a strong doubles player with a strong singles player. Dabrowski/Auger-Aliassime (Canada), Machac/Siniakova (Czech Republic) and Pavic/Vekic (Croatia) are all teams in that format. Fritz/Gauff (United States) probably contains the strongest pair of singles players although Medvedev/Andreeva(Russia) and Tsitsipas/Sakkari (Greece) also have claims.
It feels like a lottery predicting who will be good but previous podiums show you don’t have to be an establish team to succeed. Perez/Ebden could have an edge over the other teams just based on playing together this season. Vavasorri/Errani and Granollers/Sorribes Torno are solid doubles pairing who excel on clay. Of the singles combinations, I like the Greek team the most. Roger-Vasselin/Garcia and the Germans are also strong.
🥇Édouard Roger-Vasselin/Caroline Garcia 🇫🇷
🥈Andrea Vavasorri/Sara Errani 🇮🇹
🥉Marcel Granollers/Sara Sorribes Tormo 🇪🇸
Comments