Men’s 5 on 5
The United States has won seven of the last eight Olympic titles and has long dominated the basketball scene. This is perhaps more in question than at any time in recent history as some of the best players in the world are from other countries. However, they got a big win when former NBA MVP Joel Embiid decided to play for them. It is a squad full of massive names and you wonder if a young, athletic team can defeat them. France beat them at the Tokyo Olympics in the group stage only to lose in the final. The squad is led by young phenom Victor Wenbamyama but he overlaps with other top centre Rudy Gobert. The current world champions are Germany who will be led by Denis Schroeder and Franz Wagner. In the final, they beat Serbia, who were without their star player Nikola Jokic. Canada came third as they unveiled an exciting squad which can be improved upon in the Olympics with the returns of Jamal Murray and Andrew Wiggins. Australia was bronze medalist in Tokyo but looks like a team that may be passing its prime. Japan also has an NBA contributor in Rui Hachimura but the rest of the team will potentially be overmatched against the best. Greece are another team with a singular star in Giannis Antetokounmpo and their fortunes will likely depend on how he plays. Spain is historically strong, winning the 2019 World Championship and despite the team not being as impressive as it once was, they were 2022 European Champions. South Sudan making the Games is an incredible story but it would be shocking if they can beat any of the stronger nations whilst Brazil and Puerto Rico are also not expected to do much.
The draw has done some teams favours and others not. Group A is the toughest. Group B should see a battle between France and Germany for the top spot with Japan trailing in third. Serbia and the United States should rack up big points in Group C and will battle for the top spot. I think this leaves the United States against Greece and despite Antetokounmpo having a great tournament he cannot beat the Americans. Germany beat Japan to take the second semi-final spot with Canada beating Spain. Serbia against France seems some of the best centres in basketball on the floor and I think at home France can get the win. They challenge the United States but ultimately fall. That is the same fate that befalls Canada in the final. The United States does have to have some worries about the hierarchy in the team and a possible lack of athleticism when the veterans play.
🥇United States 🇺🇸
🥈Canada 🇨🇦
🥉France 🇫🇷
Women’s 5 on 5
Arguably more dominant than the men is the United States women’s team. They have won seven straight Olympic gold medals and four straight World Cups. The majority of the best players in the world are American and you wonder how many squads they could bring and still be favourites. They beat China in the final who arguably have the next-best player in Han Xu. Another standout is Emma Meesseman who represents Belgium. They are the European champions and lost in the quarter-finals of the World Cup. France has reached the final four at the last three Olympics, twice winning medals. They have only got to the quarter-finals of the last two World Cups though. The runner-up in Tokyo was Japan but you have to feel that home support has prompted them to a greater finish than even they would have expected. Spain was runners-up at the 2016 Olympics and finished second at the 2023 European championship. Serbia were the 2021 European Champions and have made the third place play-off at the last two Olympics, winning bronze in Rio and losing in Tokyo. Australia once medalled at five straight Olympics but have missed out at the last two. Signs are good though, they came second in the 2018 World Cup and third in 2022. Canada came fourth in 2022 and does have the potential to be dark horses. Germany has qualified for their first Olympics and will be led by the Sabally sisters who have impressed in the WNBA. Nigeria has won four straight Afrobasket titles but is yet to really make a mark on the world stage. Puerto Rico similarly tends to struggle for wins against the top nations.
The draw sees three groups of fours, with emphasis on being stronger than the other groups. The United States should top the group stage overall but look to have the toughest overall group. I still think they can show their dominance with China being the second-best group winner. France and Australia will have a battle to win their group but I think the home crowd should roar France on. Australia should be able to take the best second-place spot though, but Spain will give them some strong competition. Belgium have probably been hardest done by in the draw without a really weak team in their group and having to play the United States. They could beat Australia potentially but the draw is yet to be decided and it feels safest to predict that France take bronze again, with Belgium serious contenders if the draw falls right after escaping their group.
🥇United States 🇺🇸
🥈China 🇨🇳
🥉France 🇫🇷
Men’s 3x3 Basketball
Latvia is the reigning and only Olympic champion. They lost in the quarter-finals of the 2018 and 2022 World Cup but improved to third in 2023 and finished second in 2019. They also won gold at the European Games. Serbia are the number one ranked team winning four of the last five World Cups. They beat the United States in the 2023 version. The Americans have only once been world champions but with their impressive pool of players to pick from, they will surely only grow into this sport. Lithuania are consistently a strong team and they won silver medals at the 2022 World Cup and 2023 European Championships. Poland won bronze in the 2023 European Games and the 2019 World Cup. The Netherlands last medalled in the World Cup before that. They were silver medallists in 2017 and 2018 but have only made the quarter-finals at the last two World Cups. France has a couple of bronze medal-winning performances, in 2017 and 2022. China is also competing but aside from continental competitions has not shown an ability to be competitive with the top countries.
It feels tough to look past the consistency of Serbia. They have pretty much been the dominant nation except for around the last Olympics. The United States form is up and down but given their prowess it feels hard not to expect them to medal. Latvia and Lithuania are the other top nations over recent years but France has shown an ability to beat the top teams and will benefit from home advantage. The draw will once again be important in making it through to the medal stages.
🥇Serbia 🇷🇸
🥈United States 🇺🇸
🥉Latvia 🇱🇻
Women’s 3x3 Basketball
The United States have a better record in the female version. They are the reigning Olympic and World Cup gold medalists. They beat France in the 2023 final who themselves look like a major threat, having won the 2022 World Cup. The other returning medalists from Tokyo are China who took bronze. They won the 2019 World Cup and took bronze in 2022. The medal winners in 2023 were Australia, improving on a best finish of fourth in 2019. They could only win bronze at the 2022 Commonwealth Games, which was won by Canada. They also won silver at the 2022 World Cup but were knocked out in the quarter-finals in 2023. Spain was runners-up at the 2023 European Championship and has been knocked out at the quarter-final stage of the last five World Cups. Germany also lost in the 2023 quarter-finals. Azerbaijan are also competing but no form puts them on the level to be competitive here.
United States are likely the favourites to win the gold but they have not proven to be infallible in this discipline. The final should see them come up against France. With no doubt a raucous home crowd and big competition experience which included beating the United States, I think France cause a surprise. Behind them, it should come down to Australia, Canada and China. Canada feels like the team that has been able to perform best against the big nations ahead of China.
🥇France 🇫🇷
🥈United States 🇺🇸
🥉Canada 🇨🇦
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