Men’s Combined
Alberto Gines (Spain) is the reigning Olympic champion despite only being 21 for this competition. However, he benefited from winning the speed category which will not be part of this combined competition. The format also has changed to points being awarded for each discipline and added together rather than overall rankings multiplied. That probably leaves Jakob Schubert (Austria) as the favourite. He enters this as the reigning combined and lead world champion. Yannick Flohe (Germany) was the 2021 combined World Champion but the field was not the strongest. Tomoa Narasaki (Japan) was the 2019 World Champion and finished third in 2023. His speciality is again bouldering and he will need to perform well there to challenge. The top performer in every round of the bouldering competition at the 2023 World Championship but the final was Sorato Anraku (Japan). He finished fourth in the combined competition and has won World Cup medals in both events which saw him win the 2023 bouldering World Cup. Lee Do-hyun (South Korea) finished second after winning in Prague and led entering the final round. He only could finish seventh at the World Championships. Adam Ondra (Czech Republic) finished sixth. He has won World Championship medals in the combined, lead and bouldering contests. He is probably past his best now though. Colin Duffy (United States) won silver in the 2023 World Championships and is looking to improve on his seventh from the Tokyo Olympics. Toby Roberts (Great Britain) won World Cup events in both disciplines in 2023. Sam Azevou (France) managed to get podiums in both disciplines. Alex Megos (Germany) is a lead specialist, with two World Championship bronze medals. Jesse Grupper (United States) finished third overall in the 2022 Lead World Cup. Luka Potocar (Slovenia) finished first and was also the silver medalist at the 2021 Lead World Championship ahead of Hamish McArthur (Great Britain) who won bronze. Sascha Lehmann (Switzerland) won a World Cup event in 2023. Hannes Van Duysen (Belgium) has had a World Cup podium in Bouldering in both of the last two years whilst Paul Jenft (France) finished third in Hachioji in 2023.
This will be an intriguing edition of this event as the changes come to fruition. It should be a fairer way of doing things. It does make Schubert the strong favourite. He is better at lead but has been strong enough in both disciplines that he enters as a serious favourite. Megos is another competitor who is stronger in the lead. Do-hyun and Narasaki will hope to have their own advantage in the boulder category. Anraku, Duffy and Roberts are all arguably more well-rounded.
🥇Jakob Schubert 🇦🇹
🥈Sorato Anraku 🇯🇵
🥉Toby Roberts 🇬🇧
Men’s Speed
This discipline will make its debut at the Olympics as its own entity. Matteo Zurloni (Italy) is the current world champion. The dominant climber is Veddriq Leonardo (Indonesia) who won the World Cup in 2021 and 2022 and was the world record holder entering 2024. The Indonesians have strength in depth and who accompanies Leonardo is a big question. Rahmad Adi Mulyono (Indonesia) was third at the 2023 World Championship and won the World Cup event in Chamonix. The Chinese have a similar debate. Long Jinbao (China) is the silver medalist from the 2023 World Championship after finishing third in the 2022 World Cup despite only competing in four events. Wu Peng (China) was second in the 2023 World Cup overall. He also won World Cup events in Wujiang in 2023 and 2024. Bassa Mawam (France) is a double World Cup winner, but that was 2018 and 2019. He was also the silver medalist and the 2018 World Championship and holds the current Olympic record. Reza Alipour (Iran) was the 2018 world champion and also won the 2023 Asian Games. The 2023 Pan-American Games winner was Samuel Watson(United States). He finished third in the 2023 World Cup and is the current world record holder. The other competitors are Amir Maimuratov (Kazakhstan), Joshua Bruyns (South Africa), Julian David (New Zealand), Shin Eun-cheol (South Korea), Yaroslav Tkach (Ukraine) and Zach Hammer (United States).
The first Olympic champion in this event will be crowned. Leonardo has been the dominant climber but his defeat at the 2023 World Championship was disappointing. Zurloni was a shock winner. The man who went fastest at the Championship was actually Mulyano. Both of the Chinese competitors will hope to medal and I actually edge to Peng. Watson has also shown his quality this year and is now a serious contender. I think Alipour and Mawam are potentially both past their best.
🥇Wu Peng 🇨🇳
🥈Veddriq Leonardo 🇮🇩
🥉Samuel Watson 🇺🇸
Women’s Combined
Janja Garnbret (Slovenia) is the reigning Olympic champion and dominant athlete in this field. She’s also the 2018, 2019 and 2023 combined World Champion as well as winning titles in lead and bouldering competitions. Miho Nonaka (Japan) won silver at the Olympics. She has enjoyed success mainly in bouldering in the World Cup and World Championships. Compatriot Ai Mori (Japan) is probably better placed to challenge for a medal. She came third at the 2023 World Championship where she won the lead world title. Jessica Pilz (Austria) has world title medals of all colours, winning gold in 2021. Her stronger discipline is lead. Natalia Grossman (United States) is the tripe reigning World Cup winner and was the World Champion in 2021. She also won silver in the lead event that year. Compatriot Brooke Raboutou (United States) is also a strong boulderer. She came fourth in the 2023 World Championship and is looking to improve on her fifth in the Tokyo Olympics. Oriane Bertone (France) is another boulderer, winning the Prague 2023 World Cup event and finishing second in the 2023 World Championship. Camilla Moroni (Italy) won silver in the 2021 World Championship Bouldering event and already has a World Cup win from earlier in the year. Seo Chae-hyun (South Korea) will be stronger in the lead portion of the event. She won the 2021 world title and finished third in 2023. Mia Krampl (Slovenia) is stronger in the lead but she was the combined silver medalist at the 2021 World Championship. Laura Rogora (Italy) came third in the 2021 World Championship and World Cup. Zella Avezou (France) won medals in both disciplines at the 2023 European Games. Luo Zhilu (China) has also been on the podium in both disciplines in this year's World Cup events. Compatriot Zhang Yuetong (China) was third place finished in the combined event at the 2023 Asian Games. Erin McNeice(Great Britain), Ievgeniia Kazbekova (Ukraine), Lauren Mukheiber (South Africa), Lucia Dorffel (Germany), Molly Thompson-Smith (Great Britain) and Oceana Mackenzie (Australia) will also be competing.
Another climbing event with a strong favourite, I find it even more unlikely that Garnbret is beaten. She is a long way ahead of the competition and could win gold even if not at her best. Mori can get the best of her in the lead event whilst Raboutou has beaten her in bouldering events. Pilz and Chae-hyun will also be at the top of the leaderboard in the lead event whilst Nonaka and Bertone will join the others in the bouldering. Grossman is going to potentially be the most consistent in both events. I think behind Garnbret this will be a great battle. I think Bertone can get a medal in front of her home crowd whilst Pilz is the consistent performer who wins the other medal.
🥇Janja Garnbret 🇸🇮
🥈Jessica Pilz 🇦🇹
🥉Oriane Bertone 🇫🇷
Women’s Speed
Poland and Indonesia are dominating this event and both countries could have put out three climbers each who would be considered threats to medal. Instead, countries are limited to two climbers per nation. Desak Made Rita Kusuma Dewi (Indonesia) is the 2023 World Champion. She also won the 2023 Asian Games, but could only come fourth in the 2023 World Cup. Rajiah Sallsabillah (Indonesia) only made the quarter-finals of the 2023 World Championship but won the Chamonix World Cup event. Aleksandra Miroslaw (Poland) is the world record holder. She has finished third at the last two World Championships and in 2023 won three World Cup events. Aleksandra Kalucka (Poland) has been picked over her twin sister. She won the 2022 World Cup and was fourth in the 2023 World Championship. Deng Lijuan (China) won three World Cup events in 2022, having competed in four events, to finish fourth in the World Cup. Emma Hunt (United States) was the silver medalist at the 2023 World Championship and was the World Cup winner in 2021 before finishing second in 2022. Compatriot Piper Kelly (United States) won at the 2023 Pan-American Games. Beatrice Colli (Italy) was the bronze medalist at the 2023 European Games. Capucine Viglione(France), Leslie Romero (Spain) and Zhou Yafei (China) have all made the quarter-final stage of World Championships in recent years. Aniya Holder (South Africa), Manon Lebon (France) and Sarah Tetzlaff (New Zealand) will also all be competing.
I think this comes down to the Hunt, Lijuan, the Indonesian pair and the Polish pair but it is an event that thrives on unpredictability. The two most consistent are Dewi and Miroslaw and they will hopefully meet in the final. Behind them, I would edge to Hunt getting the bronze medal over Sallsabillah.
🥇Aleksandra Miroslaw 🇵🇱
🥈Desak Made Rita Kusuma Dewi 🇮🇩
🥉Emma Hunt 🇺🇸
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