Mens Event
Golf has seen a fractious split between those players on the traditional tours and the Saudi-backed LIV tour. The Olympic field will be dominated by players on the traditional tours as it is the world rankings favour those players. The United States has always won medals in golf events, even those played over 100 years ago. Scottie Scheffler (United States) has arguably been the best player in the world over the last few years but still can be vulnerable on the putting green. The other dominant golfers in the era have been Jon Rahm (Spain) and Rory McIlroy (Ireland). Rahm now plays on the LIV tour and has won a couple of majors. McIlroy has won four majors and despite not winning one since 2014, proves his quality over and over again. Other Ryder Cup heroes include Viktor Hovland (Norway) who had a really strong 2023 and Ludvig Aberg (Sweden) who has flourished since turning professional last year. Tommy Fleetwood (Great Britain) was also part of that team and has strong course form. He won the Open de France in 2017 and had a 4-1 record in the 2018 Ryder Cup. Even better with a 5-0 record was Francesco Molinari (Italy). Alex Noren (Sweden) was the 2018 winner at the Open de France and went 2-1 in the Ryder Cup. Tom Kim (South Korea) came sixth in the 2023 Open de France after being runner-up in the 2023 Open. The other American golfers will be Wyndham Clark (United States) who won at the 2023 US Open along with Colin Morikawa (United States), who is a double major winner. Xander Schauffele (United States) is the reigning Olympic champion. After being derided as something of a nearly major, he has won the last two major championships. Some other major winners include Jason Day (Australia), Hideki Matsuyama (Japan), Matt Fitzpatrick (Great Britain) and Shane Lowry (Ireland). Two LIV golfers who are better than the ranking suggests are Abraham Ancer(Mexico) and Joaquin Niemann (Chile). Other potential contenders include Byeong Hun-an (South Korea), Christian Bezuidenhout (South Africa), Corey Conners (Canada), Min Woo Lee (Australia) and Nicolai Hojgaard (Denmark).
Every time that Scheffler lines up he is rightly considered the favourite. He has been impressive all season with relatively few exceptions. Rahm feels a way away from his best whilst Rory seems to be struggling to bounce back from his major disappointment at the US Open. Hovland is another big name struggling with form. Matsuyama and Noren top the stats for strokes gained around the green which will be key here whilst Scahuffele, Scheffler and Fleetwood have strong scrambling numbers. Scheffler tops the stroke gained on approach to the green with Conners and Schauffle not too far behind. Aberg with his accuracy and Morikawa will also consider themselves to be some of the best players on approach. How much of an advantage will it be for those who have course experience? I think Fleetwood is a big player, because of that experience and his strong form. He is known for struggling to win events though, but I think he may be able to overcome that here and springboard that onto potential major success. It feels like Schauffele or Scheffler will compete, they are so consistently in the top ten shakeup. Elsewhere I think the following have a chance of joining them on the podium; Aberg, Conners, Matsuyama, Noren and Schauffele. Ultimately, I’ve edged to the course form of Noren over some better-proven names.
🥇Tommy Fleetwood 🇬🇧
🥈Scottie Scheffler 🇺🇸
🥉Alex Noren 🇸🇪
Women’s Event
The women will play on a shorter course but this remains an extremely demanding test. It plays like an inland links with exposed undulating fairways. Lydia Ko (New Zealand) has won medals at the last two Olympics without taking gold. She has won majors, but it was 2015 and 2016. Nelly Korda (United States) won gold at the Tokyo Olympics and won the 2021 PGA Championship. She has been the dominant golfer of 2024, at one point winning five events in six. Prior to that, the dominant golfer was Lilia Vu (United States) who won two majors in 2023. Celine Boutier (France) won the 2023 Evian Championship and will be buoyed by the home support. Yin Ruoning (China) is only 21 but won the 2023 PGA Championship. Yuka Saso (Japan) won the US Open in 2024, having had two podiums in the 2023 majors. Minjee Lee (Australia) has won two majors including the Evian Championship in 2021 so will have fond memories of France. Brooke Henderson (Canada) won in 2022, before being second in 2023. Maja Stark (Sweden) was second at the 2024 edition of the event. Compatriot Linn Grant (Sweden) was the European Tour player of the year in 2022. Ko Jin-young (South Korea) is a double major winner, including the Evian, but those were both in 2019. Compatriot Kim Hyo-joo (South Korea) was top five three times in 2022. Other competitors who have won majors are Ashleigh Bihai (South Africa), Georgia Hall (Great Britain), Hannah Green (Australia) and Patty Tavatanakit (Thailand). Charley Hull (Great Britain) has three finished in the top three since 2022 whilst Atthaya Thitikul (Thailand), Carlota Ciganda (Spain) and Rose Zhang (United States) are also potential contenders.
A few months ago, predicting anyone but Korda to win a female event would have seemed silly. However, her form has taken a real dip. The last time she made a top ten, was at the Mizuho Americas Open back in May. If we want to concentrate on course form then Zhang has to be mentioned as she played here in the Espírito Santo Trophy when she shot the low round. Koda leads the greens in regulations stats ahead of Thitikul, Vu and Henderson. Shots gained on approach point to Lee, Zhang and Ko as the key contenders whilst Korda also has impressive numbers around the green. Lee has winning form in France which should count for something and I ultimately think it comes down to her and Hull for the other medal.
🥇Rose Zhang 🇺🇸
🥈Minjee Lee 🇦🇺
🥉Atthaya Thitikul 🇹🇭
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