Men's Event
Hungary are the strongest team historically, winning nine golds. The bronze medal in Tokyo was their first medal since 2008 though. But the team is looking the strongest it’s been for years. They were European champions in 2020 and world champions in 2023. They could only finish fourth in the 2024 European Championships though as Spain took the victory. They were the 2022 world champions and also won the 2023 World Cup. The 2024 world champions were Croatia who won in a penalty shootout to add to their 2017 success. They have since won bronze in 2019 and were European Champions in 2022. It was Italy who lost the 2024 penalty shootout in the final. They also won silver in 2022, when also winning the World League. Montenegro won the 2018 and 2021 world leagues but has lost in the quarter-finals of four of the last five World Championships and the Tokyo Olympics. Serbia were the winners at the Tokyo Olympics but aren’t in the same form entering this Olympics. They came fourth in the 2023 World Championship and lost in the quarter-finals on either side of that. They beat Greece in the Tokyo Olympic final. Since then they won bronze in 2022 and silver in the 2023 World Championship. On their way to bronze in 2022, they beat the United States in the quarter-finals. It was the same stage they fell in 2023 but they finished second in the 2020 and 2022 World League before winning bronze in the 2023 World Cup. France are hosts and have been notably improved of late, coming fourth in the 2022 World League and the 2024 World Championship. Japan won the Asian Games in 2023 and their best bit of global form was when they came fifth in the 2021 World League. Australia’s form is even older. They were third in the 2019 League but it’s gone downhill since. Romania has received an entry as South Africa pulled out. They lost in the 2023 World Cup quarter finals but it was a battering from Italy that does not bode well.
This does feel like quite an open tournament. Overall I do think Italy and Spain have been the strongest. Romania are the weakest team which makes Pool A the weaker of the two. Italy should win the group with Croatia and Greece behind them. Fourth will come down to Montenegro or the United States. Spain should win Pool B but France is going to be buoyed by a home crowd and have improved over recent tournaments. Hungary are able challengers for those top spots with Serbia probably coming fourth. Finishing positions should be key as Croatia and Greece come up against France and Hungary. I could see France causing a minor upset and making the semi-finals but Hungary can meet them in the bronze medal matchup and take the medal.
🥇Italy 🇮🇹
🥈Spain 🇪🇸
🥉Hungary 🇭🇺
Women’s Event
United States have been dominant in this event, being the triple reigning Olympic champions. They also reached eight of ten World Championship finals between 2003 and 2022, winning seven. However, in 2023 they lost in the quarter-finals, despite winning the 2023 World Cup. They did rebound in 2024 to win the World Championship. The Netherlands were the team that took advantage of their failings to win the 2023 World Championship and are the reigning European champions. They did lose in the quarter-finals of the 2024 World Championships but it was only a penalty shootout. It was Hungary who beat them and they also won a penalty shootout in the semi to make the final to win silver. They also won silver in 2022. Twice they have come second in the world league recently and they were bronze medalists in the Tokyo Olympics. They have Rita Keszthelyi who is one of the players who will make a massive impact. Spain won the last edition of the World League in 2022. They have also won three silvers and a bronze in the last five World Championships. Greece made the semi-finals in 2024 after four straight quarter-final defeats. They won bronze in the 2024 European Championships as well. They beat Italy in that medal matchup. They were fourth-place finishers in the 2022 World Championship and won bronze in 2023. Australia came fourth that year after winning bronze in 2019. The other three World Championships in the last two Olympic cycles have seen them lose in the quarter-finals. Canada was probably better positioned entering the last Olympics. They came second in the 2017 World League and fourth in 2018 and 2021. They have made the quarter-finals in the last two World Championships and that will be their expectation. France will enter as hosts but success for them would definitely be the quarter-finals. China will think the same despite winning the Asian Games in 2024.
China and France will be seen as the weakest teams here. There does seem to be tiers in front of them. A big four of the United States, Netherlands, Hungary and Spain will be favourites. Of the next tier of four Greece and Australia would be the likeliest to cause an upset. The draw has played ball and those tiers are represented equally in the groups. I think Spain is and has been the second-best team for a while behind the United States and the gap has certainly closed. They do have a win, on penalties over the United States from 2023 but it does feel crazy to pick the upset. I do think they keep the game within a few points. Behind them, I think the Netherlands are the third-best team so the onus is on them to perform well enough in the group stage to avoid the United States.
🥇United States 🇺🇸
🥈Spain 🇪🇸
🥉Netherlands 🇳🇱
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