Men's Event
Hockey is a hard Olympic title to regain, having only been done twice in the last 60 years. Belgium will be next to attempt but having been world champions entering that renewal they don’t come in quite the same level of form. They were second in the recent World Cup but finished third in the 2023 Pro League. It was Germany who beat them in the World Cup, winning the final on penalties. Netherlands have won the 2022 and 2023 Pro League as well as the 2023 European Championship and were only knocked out in the World Cup semi final on penalties by Belgium. They came second in the 2024 Pro League. Great Britain were the runners up in the 2023 European Championship and the 2023 Nations League. At eight of the last nine Olympic tournaments Australia have medalled, winning silver in Tokyo. They came fourth in the 2023 World Cup and won the 2022 Commonwealth Games. They also finished first in the 2024 Pro League Behind them at both the Commonwealth Games and Tokyo Olympics were India. Despite being the most successful team of all time, it was their first medal since 1980. Argentina won their gold medal in 2016 and despite being the dominant team of the Americas, they do not seem to be at their most dangerous. New Zealand reached the World Cup quarter final in 2023 but in the 2023 Pro League were relegated losing all but two of their games, which went to shootout. Spain also made the World Cup quarter finals but were fifth in the 2023 Pro League. Ireland came up after their performance in the Nations Cup. mainly struggled to make themselves a player in the hockey world, never going further than a World Cup quarter final and it would be a shock if they medalled. Similarly South Africa will probably struggle against the best teams in the world.
The big teams in Group A will no doubt be happy with their draw with South Africa the weakest team in the tournament. France’s pedigree also suggests they will struggle to get out of the group. All of the big teams have beaten each other in recent years which makes it incredibly hard to call. I expect it to be Netherlands ahead of Great Britain, Spain and Germany. Group B would be considered the group of death. Australia and Belgium will expect to come out of the group. Behind them will likely be Argentina and India. The two group winners will expect to get through to the semi finals although there will be no easy games at this point. I think the final four ends up being Australia, Belgium, Great Britain and Netherlands. Germany are perhaps the most likely to cause a big upset given their recent history of big wins, despite their current poor form whilst India have one of the best players in the world so it is hard to count them out. Argentina are a consistent unit so could also cause trouble. The semi finalists have mainly split games over recent years. I think Britain beat Belgium but lose in the final to Australia given their head to head. I edge to Netherlands to beat Belgium to bronze.
🥇Australia 🇦🇺
🥈Great Britain 🇬🇧
🥉Netherlands 🇳🇱
Women’s Event
Netherlands have dominated winning three of the last four, losing the other by penalty shootout and winning the last three World Cups. They have tended to dominate the Pro League, although were defeated in 2022 by Argentina who have otherwise been perennial runners up including the last Olympics, World Cup and Pro League. Great Britain beat Netherlands in the one recent Olympics they failed to win but aside from finishing third in the 2021 Olympics and Pro League, they haven’t been at the same level. They only finished fourth at the 2023 European Championship. Belgium came second and have showed strong form over recent years finishing fourth in the previous three Pro Leagues. Germany came third in the European Championship and were fourth place finishers in the 2022 World Championship before coming second in the 2024 Pro League. Australia have won three Olympic golds to be the second most successful nation, but have not medalled since their last win in 2000. They did win bronze at the 2022 World Cup and the 2022-2023 Pro League. Spain are also former Olympic champions, although it was way back in 1992. They did win bronze at the 2018 World Championship but have not impressed since. China won at the 2023 Asian Games but tend to struggle to medal against the best opposition. Japan are in a similar boat, upsetting India in the Olympic qualifiers to make it to Paris. France will be big outsiders here, they have won in the EuroHockey Championship recently but it’s been at the lower tier of competition. South Africa are probably a slightly better side, having won seven consecutive African Cup of Nations but will also struggle. United States are usually the strongest side in North America but lost all but three games over the 2023 pro league.
France and South Africa are the worst teams in the field but each group has one weaker team. Group A is probably stronger led by overwhelming favourites Netherlands. Germany have beat Belgium in three straight matchups with China likely to come fourth. Group B will have Argentina and Australia battling for top spot, but they are pretty evenly matched. Spain will take third over Great Britain, who they have a strong head to head record against recently. I think this does come down to the top two in the groups who clash in a massive semi finals. I think Netherlands go through Australia to make the final and then defeat Argentina. Germany will have a slight edge over Australia to take bronze. China and Belgium are both capable of getting shock wins in the knockout rounds.
🥇Netherlands 🇳🇱
🥈Argentina 🇦🇷
🥉Germany 🇩🇪
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